why aren't all 42 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Allbirds Co-Founder: Amazon Profits Off Knockoffs Targeting Allbirds Search Terms
“If you look at how Amazon does, even when you're not selling on their channel, enough people have typed in all birds on amazon.com such that there is a lot of knockoffs and other, perhaps you would call it similar looking products. That are now sold through Am…”
Prediction Held up
Kant: Poolside, OpenAI, and Anthropic will rival Big Tech in AI
“What I would like to see and what I think is going to happen is that it's not just Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. It's going to be, you know, an open eye, an anthropic, a poolside, and a set of companies who are able to get that massive escape velocity needed …”
Assertion Supported
Kant: Google relies on Broadcom for TPUs while Amazon works with fabs
“Because while Google has to work with Broadcom to be able to bring TPUs into the world, Amazon is working with the fabs directly.”
Prediction Held up
Ian Lee: NFT-Powered Spotify and YouTube Alternatives Will Emerge by 2024
“So good example of this is that I think that like NFT powered commerce in Web three, NFT powered digital media and various kind of social media platforms. That I knew or believed were gonna happen in 10 years or so, I think are now possible in the next two to …”
Assertion Supported
Liew: Largest e-commerce outcomes are multi-brand retailers competing with Amazon
“The biggest outcomes in the space had been in companies that were multi-brand retailers, and in some sense competing with Amazon and doing so successfully.”
Prediction Held up
Kaden: USV will not invest in startups competing directly with Amazon
“So the short answer is I don't want to invest In companies that think they're going to take down Amazon right now, because I believe it's extremely difficult, particularly at the stage we're going at.”
Assertion Supported
Loftus: Big Tech Buyer Softening Has Kept Startup Acquisition Prices Moderate
“So I haven't seen a ton of price increase, but I do think that's because in my view, even though you've seen new entrants into the market, There's been softening at the other end of the market from the Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon end.”
Assertion Supported
Foody Denies Rumor of $13 Billion Amazon Acquisition Offer
“That one is false.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Amazon's $20B Trainium business diverts nearly 10% of Nvidia's revenue
“But all that said, it's still twenty billion of dollars that didn't go to Nvidia that went to Amazon. So it is at the margin meaningful. It's 10% of kind of Nvidia's revenue, a little less than 10%. So it's, and so it's not a mega competitor. It's just an in-h…”
Assertion Supported
Barnes & Noble Sued Amazon for False Advertising During IPO Roadshow
“When we took Jeff Bezos out on the road, the first thing that happened was that Barnes and Noble sued him for false advertising because Amazon slogan at the time you may remember was earth's largest bookstore. And Barnes and Noble had no sense of humor about t…”
Assertion Supported
Eight Sleep requires all job candidates to complete homework projects
“Everyone has to do homework. Anyone who joins the company, they have to, we give them a project. They need to work on that at home and they will present to a panel. I don't care if you are the senior executive and you are the CFO of Amazon. If you want to join…”
Assertion Supported
Eugene Wei: Amazon adopted six-page memos to curb charismatic PowerPoint presenters
“The reason Amazon moved to the six-page memo process was in part because they felt like PowerPoint and the prevalence of PowerPoint in meetings gave too much power to charismatic speakers.”
Assertion Supported
Amazon's Google AdWords spending makes customer acquisition prohibitive for upstart brands
“On frankly, Google AdWords to grow very quickly online, but now Amazon is the number one spender on Google AdWords, and frankly, they're making the cost of customer acquisition almost prohibitive for many of these new upstart brands”
Assertion Supported
Eurie Kim: Amazon is likely surpassing Macy's in US apparel sales
“They're probably surpassing Macy's now for number of dollars sold for apparel in the U.S.”
Prediction Held up
Beisel: Amazon will ship 20M to 40M Echo devices in 2017
“Somewhere between 20 to forty million are going to be Shipped in here in 2017.”
Assertion Supported
Fenton: dotCloud was subscale and unviable due to Amazon competition
“When we were in the business model of dot cloud, that wasn't happening. We were subscale. Amazon was competitive in a way that I think it was clear to some of us that the business was no longer viable.”
Prediction Held up
Ben Lerer: Legacy retail and media will heavily acquire DTC startups
“The last few weeks in retail, I mean, just look at the jet and dollar shave acquisitions. You're seeing, these are the first dominoes in what will be a bunch of dominoes falling. I believe in consolidation where the traditional guys in retail, the traditional …”
Assertion Supported
Amazon's Twitch Acquisition Exceeded $1 Billion After Employee Retention Packages
“We ended up selling to Twitch To Amazon for nine or seventy million dollars. Does that annoy you that it's not a billion? I think they specifically did that, but you know, it's after retention, it was over a billion”
Assertion Supported
Midha: Amazon's Initial Deal With Anthropic Was $4 Billion
“And that's why, you know, it resulted in deep compute and capital for equity partnership with Amazon. That was originally four billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman: Tech giants achieved chip design success primarily through acquisitions
“Where there's been success, it has frequently been acquired. Apple got into the chip business through buying PA Semi. Amazon got into the chip business through acquiring Annapurna.”
Assertion Supported
Ohanian: NWSL signed a $60M annual media rights deal
“The, we'll pay the league sixty million dollars a year for four years. And that's a medley of Amazon, CBS, ESPN, and then.”
Assertion Supported
Amazon's Split-Adjusted $18 IPO Price Equals 7.5 Cents, a 2,200x Return
“By the way, that 18 after all of the stock splits since then is seven and a half cents versus the 170 dollars for Amazon is trading today. So, 2200 times the IPO price.”
Assertion Supported
Parker: PillPack achieved ~$200M revenue run rate prior to Amazon acquisition
“One, like, we were now, like, a version of scale, right? Like, a couple hundred million in run rate or something like that.”
Assertion Supported
Strange: Amazon issued $1 billion in small business loans in 2019
“Like Amazon has done a billion dollars in S&D loans last year”
Assertion Supported
Danny Rimer: Amazon Spends More on R&D Than Any Tech Company Historically
“I guess they're spending more on R&D than any other company in the history of technology at this point.”
Assertion Supported
Danny Rimer Maintained Buy Ratings on All 1990s Internet IPOs
“So I co-authored one of the first reports, if not shamefully the first report on the internet, And then was an internet analyst for the first wave of the internet, so from 94 to 99, and I had all buys on all my universe of stocks, so we took Amazon public, and…”
Assertion Supported
Airbnb, Uber, and Amazon all launched in seemingly small niche markets
“All of those companies look small in the beginning, you know, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, like the lists, you know, even Uber in the beginning, they all looked like they were going after something small in the beginning, Amazon just doing books.”
Prediction Held up
Brown: Consumer habit of starting product searches on Amazon will not change
“We're definitely seeing a world that's dominated by Amazon. I think that's for sure. We're definitely seeing a consumer funnel of, I start on Amazon for just about every purchase that I make, and I don't think that's going to change.”
Assertion Supported
Taussig: Amazon burned only $3 million in cash before its 1997 IPO
“When Amazon went public in 1997, up until that time, it had only consumed about three million dollars of cash, and that's about half of what it would have burned without the negative working capital effect.”
Assertion Supported
Amazon scaled phenomenally as a first-party business without network effects
“Amazon is the prime example of a large company that started off as a first party business, which had no network effects, and they've done phenomenally well as they've scaled it.”
Assertion Supported
Google and Amazon drone efforts focus primarily on internal package delivery
“Thus far, Google and Amazon have mostly been focused on how do we deliver packages with drones?”
Assertion Supported
Matt Williams: Most acquired founders leave within three years; he stayed twelve
“Very few founders ever kind of last longer than two or three years at most startups that get, then get acquired. I, you know, I think there's, there are very few, I happen to be one of the rare, you know, kind of rare ones that I was at Amazon for about 12 yea…”
Assertion Supported
Alibaba Pitch Framed Company as eBay, Amazon, and PayPal of China
“The story was positioned very simply that, hey, it's the China consumer play, and they are the eBay plus Amazon plus PayPal of China.”
Assertion Supported
Cahn: Amazon Announced $50 Billion in New Data Centers
“Amazon in the last six months has announced fifty billion dollars of new data centers, right?”
Assertion Supported
Williamson: SendGrid and GitLab required opportunity canvases and Amazon-style strategy docs
“There are two that we used at SendGrid and GitLab that I think were essential. One was a one pager called an opportunity canvas, which asked PMs to outline sort of the concept they wanted to build. And the other one, it's like a two to six pager. I think Kevin…”
Assertion Supported
Klarna restructured into eight-person cross-functional teams inspired by Netflix and Amazon
“At the end, around 16 and 17, I got a new management team in place. Niklas had left, and the marriage quarrel were gone. And so we were finally able to sit down seriously and talk through how do we think we create a culture and a setup that works. And we decid…”
Assertion Supported
Hartz: Microsoft and Amazon both IPO'd at $500M valuations
“If you look back at Microsoft in the 19 eighties or Amazon in the 19 nineties, one would maybe not recall that they went public at a five hundred million dollar valuation each”
Assertion Supported
Hans Tung: US E-Commerce Penetration Lags China's 15% at Just 8-9%
“Amazon has about 40% market share in the US. And e-commerce penetration into offline retail as a percentage of offline retail in the US is only eight or nine percent. In China, the same ratio is about 15%.”
Assertion Supported
Gordon: Amazon AWS, Kindle, and Prime were shaped in key board meetings
“I remember the board meeting on Amazon where we first talked About what become Amazon Web Services, AWS. I remember the first time, I remember a series of meetings that led to the presentation of Kindle. I remember a series of meetings that led to the presenta…”
Assertion Supported
Quintini: Amazon employs psychologists alongside engineers on the Alexa team
“If you look at what Amazon is doing with Alexa, they have not only for females working on it, but they have also a psychologist working on it.”
Assertion Supported
Matt Williams: LiveBid delivered a 10x return when acquired by Amazon
“I started a company called LiveBid that was founded back in 96 and sold to Amazon in 99 for about a 10 X return to investors”
Assertion Supported
Amazon's Third-Party Marketplace Take Rate Is Approximately 15 Percent
“You know, I think Amazon's take rate for their marketplace is something like 15%.”