The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,680 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 155 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Khosla: Most VC Board Members Are Unqualified to Advise Founders
“In fact, I would suggest that most board members, just because they went to business school and joined a venture firm, are not qualified to advise an entrepreneur. They're not qualified to challenge an entrepreneur. They're not even qualified to help them judg…”
Stanton: LP diversity statements inversely correlate with actual diverse manager investments
“And in my experience and several other people I know, we found an inverse relationship between the LPs who are very public about funding diverse managers and those who do so”
Mendelson: 50% of VCs Hurt Entrepreneurs, Only 25% Help
“In my opinion, at least 50% of them hurt entrepreneurs and 25% of them don't do any good. There's only really a quarter of the VC firms that I've worked with that really help the”
Franceschetti: AI bots replaced Eight Sleep's email team and generate $100M
“Within three days, she was able to build multiple bots that now run all our email marketing. And so now we have a team of zero and email marketing makes Close to a hundred million.”
Bitcoin Runs on Greed While Solana and Ethereum Show Long-Term Potential
“And that greed element of blockchain, which is exactly what the Bitcoin thing is all about, in my opinion, is about greed, bringing down the, in the whole blockchain thing. While Solana and Ethereum, they're looking like they have a long-term potential.”
Traditional 'triple-triple-double-double' startup growth is no longer attractive for VC
“I turned down a company the other day, Because they were going from, like, one and a half to five to 15, and there's an opportunity cost of capital to say that's very real, and the growth expectations are just very different. In other words, triple, triple, do…”
Stebbings: 20VC hires mostly immigrants because British people lack strong work ethic
“Pretty much only hire immigrants. British people don't work very hard.”
Curative Canceled $600K Salesforce Contract For An Internally Vibe-Coded CRM
“We just recently canceled our Salesforce contract because we have an internal CRM that was vibe coded, that is working better, that is managing our process better, is more integrated into what we're doing. We run our agents inside of it, and no one was using S…”
Curative Is Cutting 80% Of Its Enterprise SaaS Spend This Year
“We're cutting about 80% of our SaaS spend this year.”
Corporate Anthropic Spend Will Reach 2x To 5x Engineer Salaries
“Between maybe two and five X would be the two and five X salary.”
Lemkin: Will only invest in startups working in-office six days weekly
“I want small high paid teams that work in the office over six days a week. That's I'm not interested in investing in anything else. I'm just not interested. And it's not because I don't have empathy. It's because they're gonna fail.”
Petersen: Most VCs collude more with competitors than their own partners
“There's a lot of collusion in VC. Like, I have a feeling that most VCs actually collude more with competitors than with their own partners.”
AI agents will generate more revenue than Google or Meta ads
“These products are not going to be used by you know, a hundred million people. But they will generate revenue that's going to be higher than the advertising revenue of Google or Meta. It's going to happen.”
OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years
“I could definitely see one of them being a 10 trillion dollar company maybe even significantly higher. It feels Like the opportunity associated with being the frontier model is so large that it will just like eat up so much of the other demand within the econo…”
Laqua: Employees taking weekends off have no place at Corgi
“If your days off happen to be Saturday and Sunday every week, then you will not have a place at Corgi.”
Laqua: New York is a terrible startup hub, founders move there only to date
“That's why I think New York is not a good place to have a company at all. The people that, that move their companies to New York do so because they want to date. And they're, you know, that's the only reason, really real reason why they do.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Will Pass OpenAI in Scale and Profitability Shortly
“Within a couple of quarters, Anthropic will be visibly and obviously ahead. Profitable, growing more quickly, and bigger.”
Feldman states the Trump administration is unwaveringly better for business
“Unwaveringly better for business. You know, there are things I agree with, there are things I disagree with in this administration, but unwaveringly better for business.”
Peets: Anthropic will reach a $4T to $5T valuation
“I think Anthropik's a four or five trillion dollar company.”
Chad Peets says Anthropic is inflating the executive compensation bubble
“Anthropic is, is inflating that bubble. Not that they're doing anything wrong. They just have so much money they can spend. And so they are setting benchmarks that the rest of the market is trying to keep up with.”
Peets: Continental European tech sales talent lacks required work ethic
“I just think it's hard to find the types of people harder, I should say to find the types of people, particularly outside of the UK in Europe that are willing to put the effort in that I think is required to be successful. I just think it's challenging.”
Lemkin: SpaceX market valuation will triple in 2026 driven by retail investors
“I'm going to take this bet that it's going to trade up three X, In twenty-twenty-six, just based on GameStoppers driving it up.”
Weitzman: Speechify will soon spend more on AI tokens than salaries
“We're getting to the point where soon we're going to spend more on tokens than we spend on actual salaries.”
Weitzman: AI Token Budgets Will Outpace Engineering Salaries Within Three Years
“We'll get there in three years. Yeah. You just need to be like a really strong early adopter.”
Lemkin: Fire employees who brag about team size on LinkedIn
“Anyone on LinkedIn that talks about their team, fire them. My team this. They're all so precious about their team. Lead from the effin' front with AI.”
Tobi Lütke: Everyone should be deeply suspicious of non-profit organizations
“The problem with charity dollars is they can't be given to anything that has a self healing fitness function, like, which is very fancy way of saying the words. For profit. Like markets voting of if a thing should exist. And like a not for profit, like the wor…”
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Jake Paul Claims He Is Uncancellable Because He Has Done Nothing Bad
“That's the thing is I'm uncancellable because like no one will ever find or see anything about me that is actually bad. And it's all just like fake hate.”
Jake Paul: Donald Trump Is One of the Best U.S. Presidents
“I think he Is arguably one of the best presidents the United States has had in, in this term. There's so much propaganda and things, but at the end of the day he's doing an incredible job, and there's always gonna be criticisms.”
Jason Lemkin: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic combined IPO values will top past 20 years
“The big three, SpaceX plus OpenAI plus Anthropic, their value at IPO will exceed every other IPO for the last 20 years combined.”
Hassabis: Google and DeepMind developed 90% of modern AI breakthroughs
“I would say about 90% of the breakthroughs that underpin the modern AI industry were done either by Google Brain or Google Research or DeepMind, so one of our groups.”
Hassabis: There is a very good chance AGI arrives within five years
“I mean, I think, look, I've got a probability distribution around the timings, but I would say there's a very good chance of it being within the next five years.”
Andreessen: Over 99% of AI's economic value will accrue to users
“I think AI is the exact, I think it's already that way. I think it's going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that. It might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is going to accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI.”
Andreessen: Companies falsely blame AI for corporate layoffs
“And now they all have the silver bullet excuse, right? Ah, it's AI. Right, and I know this for a fact, because number one, I talk to them, but number two, I know this for a fact, because AI until, like, literally until, like, December, right, was not actually …”
Andreessen: a16z passed on Anduril Series A out of political fear
“The most straightforward example is the deal we didn't do, we should have done, is the Andrewle Series A right, which was like, which was just, like, sort of obvious that it was gonna be special, and, you know, Palmer, we had worked with Palmer at Oculus, and …”
Lemkin: Nvidia will reach $10 trillion cumulative bookings in 5-7 years
“I think there's a high degree of confidence that most of the roads lead back to Nvidia reaching 10 trillion of cumulative, cumulative bookings over the next five to seven years.”
O'Driscoll: Displacing Overeducated Young Elites Triggers Major Political Instability
“You can have dispossessed urban poor forever, and nothing happens, but if you piss off the twenty-something-year-old middle class, the overeducated elites, they tend to cause trouble.”
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
Zinman: Enterprise spending on software will grow 100x
“The time of software, how much companies are going to spend on software is going to be a hundred X for what it is today.”
Siemiatkowski: Klarna cut headcount by 50% to under 3,000 employees
“We've gone from 7000 people. We're now below 3000. We've shrank 50%.”
Siemiatkowski: AI enterprise compression could significantly reduce demand for NVIDIA chips
“Well, that would mean that you would leave mean significant, you would need significantly less.”
Lemkin: Non-engineering software categories face existential seat shrinking
“Every category that I know of outside of engineering and product is at existential risk of shrinking seats.”
Lemkin: Governments should guarantee 0% financing for AI data centers
“We have to guarantee zero percent financing for all data centers. We'll get all our money back.”
O'Driscoll: Nearly all 2020–2021 venture investments will yield 1x or less
“Because if you think everything in 20, 21 was either priced wrong and makes a one X or early and just totally wrong and makes, you know, less than one X, let's just say, right? Other than a few companies that were the early precursors of AI”