seed

26 statements across 22 episodes · 3 bullish · 10 bearish · 14 people on the record · first statement Sep 16, 2015 by Fabrice Grinda · across every show →

Everything said about seed, oldest first

Sep 16, 2015 negative
Insight
Grinda: Seed-to-Series A information rarely justifies the valuation jump
“Well, the reason we don't typically follow on is usually, especially in frothy times, the amount of information you get between the C and the A is not enough to know that this is a clear winner. So often, so the price increases dramatically, the prorata of our…”
Fabrice Grinda Sep 16, 2015 ▶ 16:20 20 VC 072: Super Angel, Fabrice Grinda: The Future of Startup Investing
May 18, 2016 neutral
Insight
Lefcourt: Modern seed rounds are equivalent to historical Series A rounds
“I just think what used to be called Series A is now called SEED.”
Jenny Lefcourt May 18, 2016 ▶ 15:18 20VC: How Startups Should React To Today's Funding Environment & Why Big Markets Are More Forgiving with Jenny Lefcourt, Partner @ Freestyle.vc
Nov 16, 2016 negative
Insight
Incompatible seed and late-stage VC models create a startup funding gap
“These portfolio constructions are incompatible. If you're an investor, you're going to end up having a lot of companies that need a little bit more money to hit the milestone. And if you're an entrepreneur, what happens if you raise just a little bit too littl…”
Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 7:05 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital
Nov 11, 2019
Insight
Overpaying 20-30% on seed valuations has minimal impact on fund returns
“If we're wrong by 20 or 30% on price in a seed in a series A company, it doesn't matter that much. If we're off by 50% on price, it does matter. And a hundred percent of price matters more.”
Rick Heitzmann Nov 11, 2019 ▶ 16:11 20VC: Firstmark's Rick Heitzmann on The Rise of Pre-Emptive Rounds, His Biggest Learnings From The Pinterest Board, 2 Things VCs Can Do To Prepare Their Companies For The Downturn and Why Now Is A Good Time to Be Contrarian and Invest In Consumer
Aug 14, 2020 negative
Insight
Harry Stebbings: Multi-Stage Seed Investors Lack Incentive to Drive Up Series A
“If you take in a multi-stage fund at seed, they are not incented to price you up at the A because they're already in and they've got their ownership.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 14, 2020 ▶ 24:44 20VC: Why Few Firms Are Doing True Early Stage Investing Today, Why Founders Should Spend Time with Analysts When Raising & The Rise of Pre-Empting Rounds and How To Know When To Engage vs Wait with Anna Khan, General Partner @ CRV
Feb 7, 2022 neutral
Disclosure
Frankel: Founder Collective exclusively does seed and never leads later rounds
“We've never let an A, and absolutely never let a B or a C. We are unequivocally involved in every funding round, and we've built a business around there, but we only do seed.”
David Frankel Feb 7, 2022 ▶ 15:05 20VC: Biggest Lessons and Challenges Building One of the Most Successful Seed Funds, How To Manage Investor Psychology, Self-Doubt and Insecurity & The Secret to Truly Successful Venture Partnerships with David Frankel, Co-Founder @ Founder Collective
Feb 27, 2023
Assertion Contradicted
Tisch: Seed-to-Series A graduation rates hit 90-100% between 2018 and 2022
“And over that 19 or 18 to 22 period, you went to basically a hundred. Hundred percent of companies that raised the seed got an A. Maybe it was 90, 95.”
David Tisch Feb 27, 2023 ▶ 23:28 David Tisch: The 3 Most Important Variables When Raising Your Seed Round | 20VC #983 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 11, 2023 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Frank Rotman predicts 20-30% failure rates between early venture stages
“You will have 20 to 30% failure between seed and A. You will have 20 to 30% failure between A and B.”
Frank Rotman Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 5:40 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 20, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Stebbings: Series A currently offers better risk-adjusted value than seed
“I think that's why Series A is actually the most attractive place to be investing right now, because actually many of them have been significantly de-risked, but because of the markets today, the price inflection is actually significantly lower and less than i…”
Harry Stebbings Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 36:32 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 20, 2023 negative
Insight
Paley: High seed valuations make Series A fundraising significantly harder
“I actually think being overpriced at seed is actually a bigger problem than most entrepreneurs realize, particularly as the market's adjusting, right? It's a very hard time To raise Series A in general, and it's a harder time if you're already priced where som…”
Eric Paley Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 1:34 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 20, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Multi-Stage VC Funds Are Retreating From Series A to Seed
“As mentioned, many of the multistage funds are reluctant to deploy the 20 to forty million dollar Series A and B checks, and are instead moving to seed to remain in market, still writing checks, but putting fewer dollars out the door.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 17:26 20VC: NEW FORMAT: Harry Stebbings on Why Seed Pricing is as High as Ever, Why Series A is the Best Place to Invest Today, Why Growth Founders Need to Reshape Expectations, Why M&A Windows Remain Shut and When Will IPO Windows Crack Open
Oct 20, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gap Between Seed and Series A Valuations Has Never Been Smaller
“The price inflection between seed and Series A has actually never been smaller. Yet the de-risking that has occurred in that chasm has never been greater.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 16:49 20VC: NEW FORMAT: Harry Stebbings on Why Seed Pricing is as High as Ever, Why Series A is the Best Place to Invest Today, Why Growth Founders Need to Reshape Expectations, Why M&A Windows Remain Shut and When Will IPO Windows Crack Open
Oct 20, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Seed Valuations for Top Deals Will Remain High Through Late 2024
“For the best deals, in the best markets, pricing continues to remain incredibly high at seed, and I believe we will see it stay that way over the next six to 12 months.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 14:57 20VC: NEW FORMAT: Harry Stebbings on Why Seed Pricing is as High as Ever, Why Series A is the Best Place to Invest Today, Why Growth Founders Need to Reshape Expectations, Why M&A Windows Remain Shut and When Will IPO Windows Crack Open
Nov 17, 2023 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Quinn: Seed stage startup valuations have not dropped in over ten years
“Like the valuations in Seed have not dropped. And we've looked at this data really over like 10 plus years.”
Nicole Quinn Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 7:55 Roundtable #6 with Rebecca Kaden, Nicole Quinn, Eurie Kim, Harry Stebbings | E1083 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 4, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Seed SaaS investing will stay vibrant with yearly 1,000x outcomes
“I think the vibrancy of seed is here to stay. There's too many folks that made money. There's too many folks that enjoy investing. There are too many LPs that are still going to search for that alpha. And there will, every year there's going to be thousand X o…”
Jason Lemkin Jan 4, 2024 ▶ 51:00 Jason Lemkin: Predictions for 2024 - What Does a Trump Administration do for Startups? | E1099 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2024
Insight
Akkina: Unliked venture managers can succeed at seed, but rarely at Series A
“So I think in seed, that's probably more doable than in series A, for instance, right?”
Ryan Akkina Jan 29, 2024 ▶ 10:22 Ryan Akkina: How MIT Builds Their Venture Fund Portfolio & How MIT Approach Direct Investing | E1109 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 5, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Tisch: Seed rounds have shifted from $1M–$3M to $5M–$8M
“Seed has shifted, the word seed has shifted from a million to three million dollar round to a five to eight million dollar round.”
David Tisch Feb 5, 2024 ▶ 19:22 David Tisch & Terrence Rohan: Biggest Misconceptions & Hardest Truths About Seed Investing | E1112 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 5, 2024 negative
Insight
Tisch: Seed investing cannot be indexed or made low-margin
“I don't think you can index seed, and I don't think you can aggregate seed into a low margin product.”
David Tisch Feb 5, 2024 ▶ 20:08 David Tisch & Terrence Rohan: Biggest Misconceptions & Hardest Truths About Seed Investing | E1112 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Kanji: Seed startup unicorn probability is 3%
“The probability at seed of picking something that becomes a unicorn is three percent.”
Hussein Kanji Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 48:19 Hussein Kanji, Founder @Hoxton Ventures: Why AI Means London Can Compete with the US | E1248 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 29, 2025
Insight
Stebbings: Seed is Walt Disney storytelling; Series A is Jerry Maguire revenue
“Seed is easy because it's Walt Disney versus Jerry Maguire. Walt Disney is tell me the story. There's lots of people that tell a good story and come from great companies. And then Jerry Maguire is show me the money. And there's actually very few people who are…”
Harry Stebbings May 29, 2025 ▶ 30:35 OpenAI’s $6BN Jony Ive Deal & YC Is Both Chanel and Walmart, and Has Officially Won! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Stebbings: Mega-AUM funds treat seed investing as a cover charge
“When you went clubbing and you have to pay the entry fee at the door, that's like seed for the AUM galleries and the table is the C and the D.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 5:52 Index Ventures Partner, Martin Mignot: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index’s Decacorn Factory · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 30, 2025
Insight
O'Driscoll: Mega-funds overpay at seed to purchase Series B options
“The first is they can literally decide they're not pricing this round, they're buying an option on the next round. If Harry's trying to make his money on seed, and they're simply trying to set themselves to make the money on the B, they can, by definition, pay…”
Rory O'Driscoll Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 19:30 OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses & Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Harry Stebbings says seed-stage investing in San Francisco is for suckers
“I think seed in SF is for suckers.”
Harry Stebbings Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 28:23 20VC: Max Altman on The New Seed War: Can Anyone Compete with Sequoia and a16z | Leaving $2BN on the Table with Reddit | Lessons from Backing Rippling at $25M Post | Why Climate Tech is a Mirage and Disaster
Dec 15, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Harry Stebbings passed on investing in ElevenLabs at the seed stage
“Yeah, I turned it down at Seed.”
Harry Stebbings Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 16:12 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Stebbings: $50M–$100M Seed Funds Will Be the Worst-Performing Vintage
“The hardest part of the market is seed in many ways, and the worst performing funds will be the 50 to a hundred million dollar funds. I say this to explain because you're too big to be collaborative, To write those hundred to 250 K checks and be a friend, but …”
Harry Stebbings Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 2:05 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Sep 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2027
Stebbings: 30 to 40 startups have raised $100M to $300M seed rounds
“I mean, there's 30, 40 companies that at seed have raised a hundred to three hundred million.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 5, 2026 ▶ 35:13 How to Build Your Own Data Center & Why Every Startup Should Do It
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