AI foundation models

11 statements across 11 episodes · 6 bullish · 4 bearish · 11 people on the record · first statement May 17, 2023 by Emad Mostaque · across every show →

Everything said about AI foundation models, oldest first

May 17, 2023 positive
Opinion
Mostaque: AI foundation models are more important infrastructure than 5G
“Because there is no doubt this is more important than five G.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 17:56 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kleinerman: AI foundation models will commoditize until the next architectural innovation
“These are strong words, but I think they're getting commoditized until the next big innovation comes and you allocate some more value to the model.”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 17:01 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Opinion
Narayanan: Oligopoly of tech giants dominating AI models is serious risk
“That might happen. I think that's a very serious possibility, and I think this is actually one area where regulators should be paying attention. You know, what does this mean for market concentration, antitrust, and so forth?”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 26:30 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 22, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: AI model layer will commoditize as value accrues to applications and hardware
“I, you know, I think that ultimately the model layer, and I think this is not a hot take anymore. I've been saying it for a few years, but I think it will become commoditized. I think that a lot of value will accrue at the hardware layer especially And we coul…”
George Sivulka Jan 22, 2025 ▶ 43:08 George Sivulka, Co-Founder & CEO @Hebbia: The Future of Foundation Models | E1250 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 3, 2025 positive
Insight
Hyatt: AI founders should build for model capabilities six to nine months ahead
“If you are doing something at the very edge, I mean, I definitely am constantly trying to advise founders and encourage founders to think about what the models might do in six months or nine months and start to chart there.”
Nabeel Hyatt Feb 3, 2025 ▶ 56:02 Nabeel Hyatt, GP @ Spark Capital: To Win in AI, Investors Need to Change Their Approach | E1255 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Insight
Krieger: Application startups can iterate faster than major AI labs
“Building applications on top of these models becomes, it is a lot easier, and you can go from zero to one, and you can be more nimble than even these labs that are gonna all have, like, you know, tens or hundreds of millions of users, and you have to move slow…”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 1:00:19 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 10, 2025 bearish
Insight
Hulme: AI foundation models are the fastest depreciating assets in human history
“Foundation models can be distilled relatively quickly. When I was on your show last time, I talked about how foundation models were sort of going to be the fastest depreciating assets in human history, like weeks. It's almost days now.”
Tom Hulme Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:05:41 Tom Hulme & Stan Boland: Lessons from Jensen Huang & How to Fix the UK Tech Ecosystem · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zhang: Current AI models possess sufficient reasoning for customer service
“The reasoning capabilities matter a little bit less. I would say the models as they stand today are generally good enough at solving most of the meaty inquiries in customer service. I think it's like, instead of reasoning, it's more about instruction following…”
Jesse Zhang Sep 19, 2025 ▶ 25:44 20VC: Why 90% of Founders Build Startups Wrong | Why AI Growth Rates are Sustainable & Remote Work is BS and the AI Talent War | Competing with Brett Taylor and Sierra: Who Wins the Customer Service War with Jesse Zhang, Decagon
Dec 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Independent AI application software companies will win across almost every category
“We fully changed our mind. I think there's going to be application software companies built on top of models in pretty much every direction.”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 1:00:20 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: AI foundation models require $4-$5 of CapEx per $1 revenue
“And the capital intensity for every dollar of run rate revenue, it probably takes four or five dollars of CapEx to support that, right?”
Rory O’Driscoll Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 21:21 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 27, 2026 bullish
Insight
Foundation model markets will never be dominated by one player
“These markets are never dominated by one player. There's going to be an alternative.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 3:58 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
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