The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,573 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Friedman: Worrying about security and privacy limits AI agent power
“It turns out that, like, the thing that was hampering the world was being worried about security and privacy and all the things that could go wrong, and when you, like, worry a bit less, you're like, oh my god, these things are unbelievably powerful.”
Chollet: Gradient Descent Fails at Reasoning by Defaulting to Pattern Matching
“You could not really get Gradient descent to encode sort of like reasoning style algorithms. It was not because the models could not represent these algorithms. It was because gradient descent could not find them, right? So the problem was that it wasn't about…”
Skates: Being a large-company executive is much easier than being a founder
“It's much easier In my mind, I think, to be a large company executive, because you have all these resources, you have all this leverage, you actually work less hard in your product market fit”
Pollak: Decentralization is essential at the base layer, not entire stack
“The place where decentralization is really, really important is at the very bottom of the stack, right? You need decentralization at the Ethereum layer, at base, because what that enables is it enables this global platform that everyone can come and participat…”
Masad: Human domain expertise is becoming exponentially less important due to AI
“Obviously domain expertise is still important, But it's not as important as it used to be. It's exponentially less important.”
Englander: Founders should do whatever it takes to move to San Francisco
“My view for what it's worth is I think people should do what it takes to move to San Francisco. If that's not possible, that's not where your customers are based. At the very least, as you said, move to a tier one city and try and be as close to you know, folk…”
Musk: Forcing AI to believe falsehoods makes it dangerous
“Something that I think is extremely important in building AI is, is a very rigorous adherence to truth, even if that truth is politically incorrect. I, my intuition for what could make AI very dangerous is if you force AI to believe things that are not true.”
Parker Conrad: Founders should not fundraise until investors send blank-valuation term sheets
“People should not spend any time trying to optimize for like a fundraising outcome. And like, you should just basically wait until You're getting investors that are emailing you term sheets that are signed with like a blank for the valuation. And they say, jus…”
Conrad: Startup advice to 'never give up' is terrible—give up immediately
“You know, there's a lot of advice out there to kind of stick with it, Keep going. Don't give up. And I think it's terrible advice. I think if it's not working, like give up immediately.”
Caldwell: Ex-Google executives join early startups because they underperformed or misunderstood reality
“What usually happens is they either are, either they joined your startup because they're, they weren't doing well. I'm trying to think of a nice way to say it. Either there's a reason they joined your startup and left Google, or they had expectations that you …”
Doctorow: Legal frameworks create 'kill zones' protecting Big Tech monopolies
“And in the years since we have created these legal tools that allow firms not just to dominate, but to maintain their dominance, not by making better products, but by establishing a kill zone around their products where it becomes so legally fraught to make co…”
Doctorow: Comprehensive content moderation mandates entrench Big Tech monopolies
“If we fix the tech companies, if we say in order to operate a social network, you have to make sure That you are policing hate speech, copyright infringement, terrorism, and every other kind of bad act, then what you're really saying is that you can only have …”
Khosla: Process managers prevent startups from becoming truly great companies
“And so, if you have great managers, good process people, they will work against allowing the company to become great. They'll take, take a great idea and turn it into a good one, And execute a decent idea at lower risk that's more reasonable, more sensible.”
Mathilde Collin would eliminate subject lines, CC, and BCC from email
“So, you know, I think I would probably wipe out most of the structural features. Cause when you think about, you know, the main things are you have a subject, you have a signature, you literally carbon copy and blind carbon copy. And so I think I would remove …”
Paul Graham: Working 20 years at big companies indicates poor founder fit
“I think if you have worked for a large company for 20 years, you might not be a founder, unless you were forced to for visa reasons, because if you were the kind of person that would make a good founder, you wouldn't be able to stand working for a large compan…”
Jocko Willink: Every single problem a company faces is a leadership problem
“Every single problem that companies face, every single problem that companies face is a leadership problem. And if you can come up with an example, if someone wants to text me or hit me up on Twitter with an example that's not a leadership problem, like, oh, w…”
Buchheit: There is literally no such thing as value investing in startups
“There really literally is no such thing as value investing in startups.”
Altman: Value Investing Fails for Angel Investors Most of the Time
“I think value investing is not a winning strategy when it comes to being an angel investor most of the time.”
Courtland Allen: Starting a VC-backed company is a bad bet for most people
“It's probably a bad bet to start a VC-funded company for the vast majority of people. You should not go that route.”
Altman: In-House Fundraiser Post-Series B Beats Bankers and Halves Dilution
“Another thing that I think is worth hiring earlier that almost no one does, is a full-time fundraiser. Let's say you hire someone like really, really great, and their full-time job is to raise money for the company. You hire them after your B round, and you sa…”
Altman: Best PR hack is skipping agencies to directly contact 3-4 journalists
“I think the biggest PR hack you can do is to not hire a PR firm. Just pick three or four journalists that you develop really close relationships with, that like you, that understand you, that you get. And then you contact them yourself. They will cover every s…”
Altman: Founders should never hire a professional CEO
“When should the founders think about hiring a professional CEO? Never. You, if you look at the most successful companies in tech they are run by their founders for a very long time sometimes forever.”
Jeff Dean: AI agents can run autonomously for days or weeks
“Probably one thing is people don't quite realize how possible it is to have, you know, agent based systems that can run not just for an hour or two hours on a problem you care about, but for some problem domains and with highly capable models underlying them, …”
Dean: AI startups should target tasks with 1% model success, not 20%
“If they're completely failing, that's probably a good sign. If they're kind of able to do some of it, but not very well, That's maybe not a great sign because that's probably a sign that the capability is starting to be present in those models and with more tr…”
Alexandr Wang: Economic diffusion, not model progress, is AI's bottleneck
“I mean, I really think, I think we're at this, like, amazing moment in the world where the bottleneck is not the progress of the AI models. The bottleneck is diffusing that through the rest of the world and helping the world adapt to this amazing technology th…”
Alexandr Wang: Startups leveraging AI agents can easily outcompete incumbents
“And now I actually think with the power of agents and AI broadly speaking, it's much closer to Goliath versus Goliath. Like, I think, but maybe the startup is like a mecha Goliath that is like vastly enhanced by the power of agents and AI, and you know, the la…”
Wang: Progress bottleneck will shift from intelligence to vision and ambition
“Like all of a sudden the scarce resource isn't gonna be Intelligence or agency. I really think it's going to be vision and ambition.”
Altman: Demand for low-cost high-quality intelligence is effectively uncapped
“It seems to me like the demand for sufficiently high quality intelligence at a sufficiently low price is effectively uncapped.”
Jensen Huang: Starting technology matters less than confronting reality and learning
“And so long as you're able to confront the reality, so long as you are able to learn the technology itself actually doesn't matter.”
Huang: Founders should adapt the organization to themselves, not standard practices
“Whatever it takes to fit the car to you, whatever it takes to fit the organization to you, that's what you ought to do. And the next CEO, whatever the personality is, they can figure it out.”
Huang: 'Founder mode' can scale a company to five trillion dollars
“Founder mode could scale for 34 years. From zero to five trillion.”
Huang: AI automates tasks rather than destroying entire jobs
“The narrative about AI destroying jobs is exactly backwards. AI eliminate tasks. AI automates tasks away. But it doesn't necessarily eliminate jobs. And the reason for that is because the job of a person has a purpose, and that purpose has many tasks. Some of …”
Pomel: Culture flows from leadership actions, not written value lists
“What we said instead is culture flows from the top. So we exemplify the culture, we hire, we promote, we hire based on the culture, and today, that still works.”
Pomel: Inquiring on random support messages forces managers to stop managing up
“Well, what I do is I just pick up those random emails or, you know, Slack or whatever, and I just reply with a question, you know. I was like, I don't understand what's going on. And then, you know, and then, you know, the, what happens is that, there's two th…”
Pomel: A manager's job is knowing their domain, not pleasing their boss
“Your job is not to understand what I want, As a boss, your job is to understand what's happening within your span of control, and understand it very, very precisely. What's, what's working and not working?”
Pomel: European startups must enter the US market immediately after PMF
“On the other hand, I think it's absolutely critical
to go after the US market as soon as you can.
So as soon as you have a product with some form of market fit go after the US market.”
Pomel: Founders should always move faster on hiring and firing
“The one thing, the one lesson I keep learning all the time, so, is that you should always move faster, especially when it comes to hiring and firing.”
Tan: Write markdown teaching LLMs to code rather than calling LLMs
“And a new way to do it is actually have the LLMs just write the code you need right now. And then you write 10 or 20 times less code, but it's way more customizable. It does, you know, more and is more awesome. Between token maxing and even like, you know, don…”
Tan: AI allows solo founders to build year-long projects in days
“And then now it's like, actually what would take a week or a month or a year, like you literally do in, you know, minutes, hours, or, you know, at the worst, like you could build a whole cathedral of like 20 to 40,000 lines of code. Like what would take a typi…”
Franceschi: Startups Should Begin as Single-Person Companies with High AI Spend
“If I were to start a company today, I would say, okay, the premise is why can't it be just me? Like, and then you start from there and your token consumption is probably going to be a lot higher than if you said, well, I'm going to have like three people or fi…”
Franceschi: AI Commoditizes Execution; Choosing What to Build Is the Bottleneck
“The execution is out, right? The execution is gone and the model is going to do that better. The wisdom to choose is still, I think the. The missing bottleneck. And to me, that all comes from which signals are not in the models.”
Franceschi: Bolting AI Onto Legacy Workflows Fails Compared to Ground-Up Redesign
“And I think that the biggest discontinuities in a positive way that we've had were when we said, hey, let's keep this old way here, keep putting it in a corner. And like, how would we design it if we started the company today from scratch? And then just doing …”
Franceschi: CEOs Must Personally Act as Their Company's Chief AI Officer
“I think the CEO needs to be the chief AI officer. Like it's not a engineering team thing. It's not like a product team thing. It's like, you have to understand the bounds of the technology better than anyone.”
Tan: Organizational superintelligence is built by compounding micro AI skills across all work
“How do you build super intelligence inside a company? You do that on everything you do. And it's not more complicated than that. Like, you literally just compose everything that you do, and any given thing that any given person can do, you combine that in aggr…”
Koomen: AI-native software will be agents wrapping tools, not apps wrapping AI
“I think the conclusion that this essay points to is that as we get better at building AI native software. It's going to look a lot more like the agent wrapping software deterministic tools rather than deterministic software wrapping an AI.”
Ries: Mission-controlled governance outlasts founder or investor control models
“What I really think is that we shouldn't be just building Investor controlled companies or founder controlled companies. There's a third way. Interesting. We can be building mission controlled companies where the mission itself has sovereignty and these compan…”
Ries: Founders Forget VC Investment Ties Control to Firms, Not Partners
“You forget that you take a venture investment from a venture firm. You're not taking investment from that individual person. You're taking investment from a company. Then that person leaves. And now you're stuck with some new person and you've given all these …”
Ries: Founder control is not a viable long-term governance model
“Founder control is not that great either, because I know a lot of people who are like basically trapped They can never quit their company because they're like the one, they're like literally the human shield blocking every, that's too much. And of course peopl…”