why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Preskill: Validated topological qubit may appear as soon as 2019
“And it's very ambitious, because at this point, it's not even clear they have a single qubit, but if that approach is successful, and we're, it's making progress, so I think we will see a validated Qubit of this type soon, maybe next year.”
Prediction Held up
Preskill: 50-to-100 qubit quantum computers will arrive in a couple years
“We think in a couple of years we'll have devices with about 50 qubits to a hundred, and we'll be able to control them pretty well, and that's an interesting range, because even though it's only 50 to a hundred qubits, doesn't sound like that big a deal, but th…”
Prediction Held up
Preskill: Quantum computers will enable tabletop toy spacetime in decades
“And in particular, what we're going to be doing with quantum computers and, you know, the other quantum technologies that are Becoming increasingly sophisticated in the next couple of decades is we'll be able to control very well, highly entangled, complex qua…”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Nuclear-spin quantum sensors can exceed existing spatial resolution limits
“And again, using this technology of Nuclear spins, which I mentioned you can do it at room temperature, potentially. You can make a pretty good sensor, and it can potentially achieve higher sensitivity and spatial resolution. You look, look at things on shorte…”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Quantum error correction is now achievable in the laboratory
“But at first that was just kind of a theorist fantasy. It was a little too far ahead of The technology, but, you know, 20 years later, the technology is catching up, so now this idea of quantum error correction has become something you can do in the lab.”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Grover's algorithm only doubles tractable cities in traveling salesman problems
“And in practice, it's not that big a deal. What it means is that, you know, if you have the same processing speed, you can handle about you know, twice as many cities before the problem becomes too hard to solve as you could if you were using a classical proce…”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Current quantum computers are too small for proposed algorithms
“We have algorithms that have been proposed, but, which we can't really run currently, because our quantum computers aren't big enough, on the scale that's needed to solve problems really, people really care about.”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Current quantum tech achieves gate error rates around a few parts per thousand
“More or less with the technology we have now, you can have a gate error rate of a few parts in a thousand, you know.”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Superconducting qubit coherence times grew 10x every three years
“And for the superconducting circuits, those coherence times have increased about a factor of 10 every three years, going back 15 years or so.”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Superconducting circuits execute gates faster than trapped-ion qubits
“They have the advantage of being faster than the time to take the cycle time, the time to do a gate is faster than with the trapped ions.”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Quantum computers can break both RSA and elliptic curve cryptography
“RSA, which is one of the ones that's widely used, as typically practiced today, the, to break it, you'd have to do something like factor a number, which is Over 2000 bits long to 20 48. And that's, you know, that's too hard to do now. But that's what quantum c…”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Quantum information can travel tens of kilometers in fiber with low error
“But nowadays, you know, you can send quantum information through an optical fiber over tens of kilometers with you know, a low enough error rate, so it's useful for communication.”
Assertion Supported
Preskill: Single photons cannot reach global distances in fiber without repeaters
“Because at least with, you know, our current photonics technology, there's no way I can send a single photon from here to China without there being a very high probability that it gets lost in the fiber somewhere.”