Caltech physicist John Preskill explains the technical capabilities and commercial opportunities of quantum sensing technologies.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Preskill: Validated topological qubit may appear as soon as 2019
“And it's very ambitious, because at this point, it's not even clear they have a single qubit, but if that approach is successful, and we're, it's making progress, so I think we will see a validated Qubit of this type soon, maybe next year.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Preskill: Superconducting circuits and trapped ions will lead for 5-10 years
“The most advanced are superconducting circuits and trapped ions, which is why I mentioned those first, and I think that will remain true, you know, over the next five to 10 years.”
Insight
Preskill: Quantum entanglement is what holds space-time geometry together
“So it's really the entanglement which holds space together, which keeps it from falling apart into little pieces.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2023
Preskill: Quantum computers will impact chemistry, carbon capture, and materials
“The Ones which will affect everyday life, I think, are better methods for understanding and inventing new materials, new chemical compounds. Things like that can be really important. You know, if you find a better way of capturing carbon by designing a better …”
Prediction Held up
Preskill: 50-to-100 qubit quantum computers will arrive in a couple years
“We think in a couple of years we'll have devices with about 50 qubits to a hundred, and we'll be able to control them pretty well, and that's an interesting range, because even though it's only 50 to a hundred qubits, doesn't sound like that big a deal, but th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Preskill: Quantum computers breaking public key crypto unlikely in 10 years, likely in 50
“I don't think, though I could be wrong, that we're likely to have quantum computers that can break those public key cryptosystems in 10 years. But in 50 years? Seems not unlikely.”