Caltech theoretical physicist John Preskill explains how quantum information theory connects to fundamental quantum gravity and the emergent nature of space-time.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Preskill: Validated topological qubit may appear as soon as 2019
“And it's very ambitious, because at this point, it's not even clear they have a single qubit, but if that approach is successful, and we're, it's making progress, so I think we will see a validated Qubit of this type soon, maybe next year.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Preskill: Superconducting circuits and trapped ions will lead for 5-10 years
“The most advanced are superconducting circuits and trapped ions, which is why I mentioned those first, and I think that will remain true, you know, over the next five to 10 years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2023
Preskill: Quantum computers will impact chemistry, carbon capture, and materials
“The Ones which will affect everyday life, I think, are better methods for understanding and inventing new materials, new chemical compounds. Things like that can be really important. You know, if you find a better way of capturing carbon by designing a better …”
Prediction Held up
Preskill: 50-to-100 qubit quantum computers will arrive in a couple years
“We think in a couple of years we'll have devices with about 50 qubits to a hundred, and we'll be able to control them pretty well, and that's an interesting range, because even though it's only 50 to a hundred qubits, doesn't sound like that big a deal, but th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Preskill: Quantum computers breaking public key crypto unlikely in 10 years, likely in 50
“I don't think, though I could be wrong, that we're likely to have quantum computers that can break those public key cryptosystems in 10 years. But in 50 years? Seems not unlikely.”
Prediction Held up
Preskill: Quantum computers will enable tabletop toy spacetime in decades
“And in particular, what we're going to be doing with quantum computers and, you know, the other quantum technologies that are Becoming increasingly sophisticated in the next couple of decades is we'll be able to control very well, highly entangled, complex qua…”