The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 643 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Musk: X has not suspended or de-amplified any left-wing voices
“So what I've tried to do is just restore it to be balanced and centrist. So there haven't been any left-wing voices that have been suspended or, you know, banned or de-amplified or anything like that.”
Mazumdar-Shaw: Vijay Mallya has paid back everything he owed
“Well, he's paid back everything he owed. So I don't understand why he's still being targeted.”
Harari: Both Hamas and Israel committed atrocities in the recent war
“The truth is that during the war, the recent war between Israel and Hamas, Hamas committed atrocities and also Israel committed atrocities. This is the truth. It's not that, oh, there is the Palestinian truth that only the Israelis committed atrocities, and th…”
Al Olama: Social media platforms algorithmically muted content regarding Gaza
“You see, for a long period of time, there was algorithmic muting for certain content. So, you couldn't see, say certain things about Gaza, for example, right?”
Musk: Some outsourcing companies have gamed the US H-1B visa system
“It's certainly, it would be accurate to say that there's, you know, like some of the outsourcing companies have kind of gamed the system on, on the H-one B front, and we need to stop the gaming of the system, you know”
Sharma: India will never sustain an annual GDP growth rate above 6%
“And therefore we'll never grow at a rate of more than six percent on a sustained basis has been my view for a very long period of time.”
Khosla: The vast majority of crypto use cases are illegal
“So the vast majority of uses of crypto are illegal stuff. Gun trades, drug trades sex trafficking. Arms trades. It's the worst use of crypto.”
JC: No data suggests continuous glucose monitors help non-diabetics
“CGM, again, I'm not a huge fan of CGM. It's great for diabetics, but in non-diabetics, there's no data that suggests it helps non-diabetics. I mean, apart from making people feel scared of every single food on the planet that spikes their blood glucose, and yo…”
Chouksey: Andrew Huberman has a conflict of interest through an AG1 investment
“So, Huberman also has a conflict of interest, because AGI promises they have all of these things, and Huberman has an investment in AGI.”
Ather's auto hill-hold feature lasts 10 minutes while Ola's lasts one
“The way we implemented and the way Ola implemented I think Ola's same capability would last a much shorter time. So if you engage this hill hole feature on a steep slope after a minute or so, the motor would be like, okay, now I can't support this. It'll start…”
Bedi: Decentraland Has Only 26 Daily Users Despite Billion-Dollar Valuation
“It has 26 DAU or daily active users, which is insane, right? And it's valued at a billion dollars”
Tang: China's EV dominance resulted from heavy multi-decade state subsidies
“Today's situation in China is a national drive for last decades. So, you know, so the pure EV car, it can get easily charged in China, in most cities, but you cannot guarantee that happen in India, or even in Germany. I don't think there's too many charge stat…”
Klein: Developing nations defy theory by running surpluses to buy Western assets
“Places that in theory ought to be, you know, a sort of standard theory should be having trade deficits because of their investment needs, actually having surpluses, and sending you know, buying financial assets, rather than borrowing, their net lending to plac…”
Armstrong: Open source AI models are six months behind and 99% cheaper
“You know, the open source models are really like six months behind and they're like 99% cheaper or more sometimes for inference.”
Armstrong: Coinbase gives any trader equal AWS access to Citadel
“We, we've built this in the cloud where anybody can spin up an AWS instance in the same availability zone and have the same access as Citadel or Jane Street.”
Prasad: E-pharmacies are highly capital intensive and Tata 1mg remains unprofitable
“Online business can happen, but then you require a huge amount of capital. It's not a twenty-five-year-old's job. Tata MG, One MG is still not profitable.”
Juneja: Weak regulation leads to heavy metals like lead in Ayurvedic drugs
“The purity is an issue, actually. And a lot of time when regulatory is not very, very strong there are complaints of, I'll say, adding certain other things in that. For example, in this in some of the drugs, lead has been found.”
Prasad: China is significantly ahead of India in developing biologic drugs
“Indian abilities and scientific and manufacturing abilities and biologics are lagging. China is way ahead of us in biologic drugs. I wouldn't say that in chemistry, but I'll say that in biologics.”
Banga: Prolonged low interest rates increased global inequality over past 20 years
“If you look at the way inequality in the world has gone, in fact, in the last 1520 years, it has increased because of this exact reason. Very low interest rates for a long period of time. Has created this kind of growth of capital return. Those who have money …”
Banga: 1.2B emerging-market youth will reach adulthood facing only 400M jobs
“1.2 billion young people in the emerging markets are going to become 18 years of age in the coming Mutomati 15 years. Right?
Yeah.
Currently, the same markets, currently, this is pre-AI, and we can talk about AI's impacts on the developed world versus the de…”
Al Olama: Dubai has no oil revenue and balances budgets through diversification
“A city like Dubai has no oil revenue, right? So Dubai has creative ways of Balancing its budgets, of making investments, of growing as an economy”
Musk: The Defense Department cannot pass audits because required data is missing
“So if you have to say, like, why can the Defense Department, or now the Department of War, why can it not pass an audit? It's because the information is not there. It doesn't have, the information necessary to pass an order does not exist, is the issue.”
Adcock: Paying Passengers Will Fly on Electric Aircraft Within 5 Years
“So I think within the next, like, five years, we'll be taking passengers, like, paying passengers around in, in air spaces here in the world on electric aircraft like this.”
Deshpande: TikTok's Chinese sister app Douyin accounts for 40% of retail
“Doyen, which is TikTok, is 40% of retail.”
Sharma predicts large caps will outperform small and mid caps for the foreseeable future
“One of my big top trends was this, that I expect much more that the large caps to outperform small to mid caps for the small caps for at least the foreseeable future.”
Sharma: Poland is likely the next emerging market to achieve developed status
“And so the next country to become a developed country likely is going to be Poland.”
Sharma: Western incumbents lose elections while emerging market incumbents win
“If you look at the Western countries today most governments lose election there whereas in emerging markets, in developing countries of late, most incumbents are winning their elections which is the big difference that's happened.”
Sharma: Western social and economic mobility has declined over past 40 years
“Social and economic mobility in Western societies has declined in the last 30 to 40 years.”
Kamath: Zerodha earns less revenue per user than government taxes and fees
“We as a broker end up making lesser revenue as a typical user might pay in security transaction tax, plus the transaction charge that an exchange charges, plus SEBI says, education says, all of that put together.”
Das: AI Is Already Solving Longstanding Math Problems to Expand Human Knowledge
“And Alpha Evolve has made novel solutions on this problem that, you know, that haven't been improved upon in 2030 years. So, just to be clear, like, AI is very much pushing the frontiers of human knowledge just in bits and pieces today, and we're going to see …”
Khosrowshahi: Global EV market share will favor China for a while
“My expectation is overall share, especially in the EV sector on a global basis of EVs is going to be is going China's way for a while, but individual innovative OEMs, they're going to do fine.”
Khosla: AI intake tool used by 40% of UK NHS mental clinics
“In the UK, we have something that's used by 40% of all NHS mental health clinics to intake patients. What does intaking a patient mean? A therapist talk to them and classify their mental illness. The AI is much more accurate than the human therapist. 93% accur…”
Arora: Every major AI model outside China is in the Bay Area
“Every AI model that is being built with a reason, except perhaps in China, is headquartered here.”
Netflix's Second-Biggest Expense Is Tech, While Rivals Spend on Marketing
“I would bet every, all the other entertainment companies, their second biggest, biggest expense is marketing and ours is tech. Second and only to content.”
Pei: Chinese smartphone screen makers sell at a loss via subsidies
“The smartphone screens from China, those companies are losing money to sell the screens. They have policies that subsidize the creation of that industry.”
Sharma: China has invested for 20 years without matching TSMC
“Even see, China started their semiconductor program 20 years back. They're still not able to compete on that.”
Aravind Srinivas: Google is the only company full-stack independent of Nvidia
“The only one who's managed to do this, I would say, is Google. They built their own chips, they built their own software around it called JAX, and then they built their own accelerated linear algebra library called XLA. And then, you know, they have their own …”
Srinivas: Indian IT giants will hire fewer people going forward
“They're not going to hire as many people going forward.”
Srinivas: Perplexity does not train on web data, unlike ChatGPT
“I mean, perplexity, that's why we sort, we attribute it to a source, like, we don't, like, say it's our content, and that way we give credit to the source, and we're not actually training on the data, but ChatGPT is different. They actually train on all the da…”
Chouksey: All Shilajit research studies are corporate-funded by PrimaVie
“All Shilajit studies are funded by the company that makes Shilajit formulation, Prima V.”
Chouksey: Indian whey protein brands only import and rebrand raw material
“Because even if we talk about whey protein, it's not that we have whey protein companies in India, you know, like besides Amul, I don't think they're just importing. We are importing everything. And when it comes to whey protein, we're just mixing stuff, label…”
Chouksey: Second Opinion survey found 41% of recommended surgeries were unnecessary
“There was this company called Second Opinion. And they found out, they did a survey, and they found out that almost 41% of the surgeries were unnecessary.”
Polymarket Is Launching a Prediction Market on Bryan Johnson's Nighttime Erections
“So actually next week there's going to be, do you know Polymarket? Yeah. They're launching a market on my nighttime erections.”
Prakash: Indians need lower BMI cutoffs than Westerners
“BMI levels in India need to be lower because our fat thresholds are lower, right? Unless in Indian doctors and in have had this now, and where did this data get kind of research in Singapore, right? Because they are putting money into doing this research to se…”
Shankar: Almost 60% of smaller Indian developers closed post-COVID
“So I don't think it's, it can be like monopol, monopolistic or duopolistic just because of how the scale of where things are. But there has been a huge consolidation in the market, especially post COVID. We saw almost 60% of smaller guys Like shut shop.”
Nilekani: ONDC processes twelve billion transactions per month
“And ONDC today does twelve billion transactions a month.”