The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 855 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 9 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Musk: X has not suspended or de-amplified any left-wing voices
“So what I've tried to do is just restore it to be balanced and centrist. So there haven't been any left-wing voices that have been suspended or, you know, banned or de-amplified or anything like that.”
Mazumdar-Shaw: Vijay Mallya has paid back everything he owed
“Well, he's paid back everything he owed. So I don't understand why he's still being targeted.”
Prasad: Dr. Reddy's found Chinese suppliers more reliable than Indian peers during COVID
“In COVID time, I'm telling you this, in COVID time, we had more reliable supplies from China than from Indian companies.”
Amodei: Chinese open-source models are distilled from US frontier labs
“A lot of these models, particularly the ones that come from China, are optimized for benchmarks and are distilled from, ah, you know, from kind of the big US labs.”
Harari: Both Hamas and Israel committed atrocities in the recent war
“The truth is that during the war, the recent war between Israel and Hamas, Hamas committed atrocities and also Israel committed atrocities. This is the truth. It's not that, oh, there is the Palestinian truth that only the Israelis committed atrocities, and th…”
Al Olama: Social media platforms algorithmically muted content regarding Gaza
“You see, for a long period of time, there was algorithmic muting for certain content. So, you couldn't see, say certain things about Gaza, for example, right?”
Musk: Some outsourcing companies have gamed the US H-1B visa system
“It's certainly, it would be accurate to say that there's, you know, like some of the outsourcing companies have kind of gamed the system on, on the H-one B front, and we need to stop the gaming of the system, you know”
Khosla: The vast majority of crypto use cases are illegal
“So the vast majority of uses of crypto are illegal stuff. Gun trades, drug trades sex trafficking. Arms trades. It's the worst use of crypto.”
Anucheth: Police stations receive sufficient government funding to operate without bribes
“No, it's not. I think everything is well budgeted for. And you have sufficient budget to take care. It's just that how you plan it. If you plan for something and you budget for it, you do get the required funds.”
Bryan Johnson: AG1 costs under $10 to make and pays 20% influencer commissions
“So the cost of their goods to source their actual ingredients is less than 10 dollars, probably seven dollars. They sell it for one time, 99 dollars and subscription for 79. They pay influencers
20% of that. So every time a health influencer plugs AG one, they…”
JC: No data suggests continuous glucose monitors help non-diabetics
“CGM, again, I'm not a huge fan of CGM. It's great for diabetics, but in non-diabetics, there's no data that suggests it helps non-diabetics. I mean, apart from making people feel scared of every single food on the planet that spikes their blood glucose, and yo…”
Chouksey: Andrew Huberman has a conflict of interest through an AG1 investment
“So, Huberman also has a conflict of interest, because AGI promises they have all of these things, and Huberman has an investment in AGI.”
Razack: Every Prestige Property Buyer Has Seen 2X to 4X Returns
“I've never seen any of my buyer who has bought for X, who's not gone two X or three X or four X.”
Ather's auto hill-hold feature lasts 10 minutes while Ola's lasts one
“The way we implemented and the way Ola implemented I think Ola's same capability would last a much shorter time. So if you engage this hill hole feature on a steep slope after a minute or so, the motor would be like, okay, now I can't support this. It'll start…”
Yassin: More Middle Eastern leaders died pursuing peace than waging war
“In the Middle East, more politicians died From making peace than from making war. I'm gonna say that again. More politicians died from making peace than from making war.”
Amlani: Food Aggregators Open Packages to Remove Restaurant Promotional Flyers
“They actively go through your, about your packages and remove any such literature.”
Narayanan: Myntra ad experiments showed higher click-through rates for fair-skinned models
“And we ran an experiment where you actually look at click through rates long time ago, and you find that the click through rates are actually different. So purely economically, the click through rates on performance marketing were higher.”
Bedi: Decentraland Has Only 26 Daily Users Despite Billion-Dollar Valuation
“It has 26 DAU or daily active users, which is insane, right? And it's valued at a billion dollars”
Tang: China's EV dominance resulted from heavy multi-decade state subsidies
“Today's situation in China is a national drive for last decades. So, you know, so the pure EV car, it can get easily charged in China, in most cities, but you cannot guarantee that happen in India, or even in Germany. I don't think there's too many charge stat…”
Klein: Developing nations defy theory by running surpluses to buy Western assets
“Places that in theory ought to be, you know, a sort of standard theory should be having trade deficits because of their investment needs, actually having surpluses, and sending you know, buying financial assets, rather than borrowing, their net lending to plac…”
Armstrong: Open source AI models are six months behind and 99% cheaper
“You know, the open source models are really like six months behind and they're like 99% cheaper or more sometimes for inference.”
Armstrong: Coinbase gives any trader equal AWS access to Citadel
“We, we've built this in the cloud where anybody can spin up an AWS instance in the same availability zone and have the same access as Citadel or Jane Street.”
Christodoulides: The Russian invasion proved Europe can no longer rely on America
“Today, all the last three, four years, especially following what happened in Ukraine, the Russian invasion in Ukraine, we understood as Europeans that we cannot be dependent on the Americans. And so we start investing In our defense and security, in having our…”
Prasad: E-pharmacies are highly capital intensive and Tata 1mg remains unprofitable
“Online business can happen, but then you require a huge amount of capital. It's not a twenty-five-year-old's job. Tata MG, One MG is still not profitable.”
Prasad: India profits more by converting cheap Chinese intermediates into finished APIs
“They're selling these cheap intermediates to us. We convert them into API. We make more money than them.”
Juneja: Weak regulation leads to heavy metals like lead in Ayurvedic drugs
“The purity is an issue, actually. And a lot of time when regulatory is not very, very strong there are complaints of, I'll say, adding certain other things in that. For example, in this in some of the drugs, lead has been found.”
Prasad: China is significantly ahead of India in developing biologic drugs
“Indian abilities and scientific and manufacturing abilities and biologics are lagging. China is way ahead of us in biologic drugs. I wouldn't say that in chemistry, but I'll say that in biologics.”
Banga: Prolonged low interest rates increased global inequality over past 20 years
“If you look at the way inequality in the world has gone, in fact, in the last 1520 years, it has increased because of this exact reason. Very low interest rates for a long period of time. Has created this kind of growth of capital return. Those who have money …”
Amodei: AI performance gains come almost purely from scaling compute and data
“If you scale up models, you give them more data, more compute. Again, there are a few modifications like RL, but not really very much. It's pretty close to pure scaling. You find that, you know, when you do that, you find, you know, incredible increases in per…”
Al Olama: Dubai has no oil revenue and balances budgets through diversification
“A city like Dubai has no oil revenue, right? So Dubai has creative ways of Balancing its budgets, of making investments, of growing as an economy”
Musk: The Defense Department cannot pass audits because required data is missing
“So if you have to say, like, why can the Defense Department, or now the Department of War, why can it not pass an audit? It's because the information is not there. It doesn't have, the information necessary to pass an order does not exist, is the issue.”
Adcock: Deep Learning Transfers From Logistics Tasks to Folding Laundry
“We are taking data from all the robots, and we are consulting that out to, like, our servers here at Figure, and we're training on that. And what we're seeing now is we're seeing, like, incredible transfer from other robot data that's helping the current robot…”
Adcock: AI has exhausted internet text tokens, requiring physical world data
“We've kind of, like we've, like, tapped out all the, kind of, tokens on the internet at this point. So we think, like, being able to explore the physical world is, like, extremely important for, like, overall intelligence.”
Adcock: OpenAI partnership hurt hiring by creating perception of outsourced AI
“It also became hard, like, hiring people when we had a partnership like that, where folks felt like we were outsourcing our AI, which we weren't doing, and we were actually doing all of it mostly ourselves internally.”
Deshpande: TikTok's Chinese sister app Douyin accounts for 40% of retail
“Doyen, which is TikTok, is 40% of retail.”
Sharma: Western social and economic mobility has declined over past 40 years
“Social and economic mobility in Western societies has declined in the last 30 to 40 years.”
Sharma: Western incumbents lose elections while emerging market incumbents win
“If you look at the Western countries today most governments lose election there whereas in emerging markets, in developing countries of late, most incumbents are winning their elections which is the big difference that's happened.”
Kamath: Zerodha earns less revenue per user than government taxes and fees
“We as a broker end up making lesser revenue as a typical user might pay in security transaction tax, plus the transaction charge that an exchange charges, plus SEBI says, education says, all of that put together.”
Sharma: China is the only country besides the US developing meaningful AI
“Even on the AI front, the only other country in the world today which can do AI of any meaningful scale is China. No European country or any emerging market can.”
Das: AI developers have officially run out of public training data
“The second I would say is you know, we've run out of public data.”
Das: China builds near-frontier AI models without cutting-edge GPUs
“They don't have the latest cutting edge GPU resources, yet somehow they're able to come up with models that are not perhaps the best of the best, but they're quite good. They're frontier as you say.”
Das: AI Is Already Solving Longstanding Math Problems to Expand Human Knowledge
“And Alpha Evolve has made novel solutions on this problem that, you know, that haven't been improved upon in 2030 years. So, just to be clear, like, AI is very much pushing the frontiers of human knowledge just in bits and pieces today, and we're going to see …”
Das: None of the World's Leading Foundation AI Models Are Indian
“None of the top models are Indian models. They're American and they're Chinese in any field. I mean, audio, video, image.”
Khosla: AI intake tool used by 40% of UK NHS mental clinics
“In the UK, we have something that's used by 40% of all NHS mental health clinics to intake patients. What does intaking a patient mean? A therapist talk to them and classify their mental illness. The AI is much more accurate than the human therapist. 93% accur…”
Arora: Private Enterprise Domains Hold 10x More Data Than the Public Web
“I think there's 10 times more information in private domains, which is not available in the public domain. All the drug discovery data, which is sitting in every drug company that has made any drug in the past, it's all proprietary data, right? All the intelle…”
Arora: Every major AI model outside China is in the Bay Area
“Every AI model that is being built with a reason, except perhaps in China, is headquartered here.”