Insight
Shenoy: Indian alcobev brands mask poor retention through rapid geographic expansion
“So by the time you go to Thana and you're going to the suburbs and everything, you're still growing because you're doing primary sales, but your original core consumers doesn't come back to you repeat. This, you start going from Thana now to Nasik, from Nasik …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shenoy: 25% aggregator commissions make online alcohol delivery unviable for brands
“When you do the delivery model and you start adding that extra cost, I think somewhere around your, you're already having your back towards the wall when it comes to margins for liquor companies, if it stretches to what Zometo or Swiggy do, Or 25%, then it bec…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Shenoy: Bira gets most volume from mass strong beer category
“Beera also gets majority of its volumes from the same category as Hayward's 5000 and Kingfisher's Strong, where it's the base category where in certain states they really get a lot of volume.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shenoy: Diageo's Celebration Rum now significantly outsells Old Monk
“I think Celebration Ram, which is of DI Joe, now outsells Old Monk quite a bit.”
Insight
Shenoy: Zero-to-one alcobev brands must build tertiary retail demand before signing distributors
“If you are an absolute zero to one person starting out, I would say once you identified what product you are doing, just take a few bottles and there are three layers to distribution. What you manufacture is called as the primary. Then you, what your distribut…”
Insight
Shenoy: Beer is the hardest alcohol to produce because flaws cannot hide
“That's why beer is the hardest because you have no room to hide. You're just doing pure fermentation. It's the hardest thing to do because you make a mistake. Anybody will catch.”
Opinion
Shenoy: Hard seltzers will lack stickiness in India compared to the US
“The Americans were mixing their whiskies with coke, but we in India are anyway mixing with soda and water. So if you're going to create a seltzer, everybody's making their own seltzers here. So how are you even, it's, so it's to make something like that from a…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shenoy: Macro lager beer producers achieve 55% to 60% margins
“With extremely high levels of efficiency, if you are producing mass macro lagers, you probably get into the range of between 55%. And because they also recycle, a lot of bottles come back. It's very efficient in terms of cost structure. And it can be stretched…”
Disclosure
Shenoy: Goa Brewing refuses to pay bar entry or listing fees
“Bars keep our product for the product quality, but we don't pay for entry into any bar.”
Assertion Partly supported
Shenoy: India consumes ten times more hard liquor than Vietnam
“So the interesting thing is in India is the only country in the tropical zone where you do roughly around three hundred and fifty million cases of heart liquor, considering you also country regular spirits also, and about the same quantity of beer. But if you …”
Assertion Supported
Shenoy: Setting up a small homebrewing kit costs under 5,000 rupees
“You don't need more than 5000 rupees to create a small homebrewing kit at home.”
Insight
Shenoy: Alcobev startups cannot win by competing purely on capital against multinationals
“If you are going to compete with money, then you are already out of the game because you're competing with people who have like a 102 hundred billion dollar, you know, all the biggest industry is run by multinationals.”
Assertion Supported
Shenoy: Retail margins for successful Indian liquor brands run 12% to 15%
“The blended margin for a successful brand in the retail is somewhere around 12 to 15%, including your trade scheme. Nobody goes beyond that unless you are a very early brand and it's a push sale.”
Assertion Supported
Shenoy: Pernod Ricard earns ₹25,000 crores as India's most profitable liquor company
“Yeah, like, 25,000 crores in revenue. It's, I think, the most profitable liquor company, but entirely.”
Assertion Supported
Shenoy: India's premium beer segment is roughly 55 to 60 million cases
“This is currently roughly around a 55 to sixty million case industry.”
Assertion Supported
Shenoy: Multinationals like Pernod Ricard and Diageo are launching Indian malts
“There's so much more happening in whisky, where there's big money, and there are big multinational, like Pernod, D.I. Joe's all launching their Indian malts now. It's not just Amrut, Paul John, and Radico. It's opened up quite a lot.”
