why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Particle customers will deploy millions of connected devices in 2018
“And we have customers who will be deploying millions in 2018.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Insecure IoT devices will persist as cybersecurity threats for decades
“These devices that are already out there that are insecure, they're not going anywhere. You know, people aren't necessarily unplugging these things. And so there's going to be, there's going to continue to be security concerns. I mean, for, it could be decades…”
Insight
Crowdfunding campaigns should be treated as product-market fit experiments
“I look at a Kickstarter campaign or really any crowdfunding campaign as an experiment.”
Assertion Supported
Particle raised approximately $10M in late 2016
“We raised about ten million dollars late last year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Particle's revenue is currently driven by upfront hardware sales
“These days, most of our money comes from selling hardware because of where we are and sort of how long we've been around. Most companies start by buying a bunch of hardware upfront and then the recurring stuff kicks in later. So right now, most of our revenue …”
Assertion Partly supported
The Mirai botnet took down Liberia's entire internet infrastructure
“The Mirai botnet also took down the entire internet of Liberia, which was less widely broadcast in the US, but that's a huge deal.”
Disclosure
Particle spent $35K in total to launch its first two Kickstarters
“I think we probably spent like 15 grand to get from idea to launch Kickstarter campaign, and then we probably spent another 20 grand to get from there to the second Kickstarter campaign.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Particle doubled revenue annually, from $500K in 2013 to $4M in 2016
“Sorry, rewind, it's like half a million, 1,000,002 1,000,004 million is like.”
Disclosure
Particle provides full-stack IoT hardware, connectivity, and cloud infrastructure
“What that means is we give them a cloud platform. Those devices can connect to, we give them the physical hardware that'll actually go into the device. So like a wifi module or a cellular modem. We get, if it's cellular, we give them SIM cards and data plans, …”
Assertion Supported
Particle's first Kickstarter failed after raising $125K on a $250K goal
“We had a 250,000 dollar goal. We raised 125,000, but Kickstarter is all or nothing. So that means we raised zero and that product never came to be.”
Assertion Supported
Particle's second Kickstarter raised nearly $600K on a $10K goal
“And that launched in May 2013 with a 10,000 dollar goal on Kickstarter, and we raised almost 600,000 dollars.”
Disclosure
Particle models its developer community strategy on Twilio
“Jeff Lawson, the CEO of Twilio is the one I respect quite a bit. A lot of our business, we're sort of following his path and the things that he figured out about how to build a developer community and build a business off of. So I have a ton of respect for him…”