why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hornet spent zero dollars on customer acquisition since 2011
“We haven't spent anything on acquisitions since October, 2011.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sean Howell: Direct ad deals will soon eclipse programmatic revenue at Hornet
“And oddly, despite loving technology and loving auctions we're seeing such a huge growth in direct deals that I'm sure someday that's going to eclipse programmatic very soon.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hornet Displaced Competitors in France, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Thailand, and Italy
“We're trying to deplete, displace competitors and key markets, and we've done that in France, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Thailand, Italy, and trying to do that the rest of the world.”
Insight
Howell: Early product localization is a growth driver founders overlook
“I would actually say one of the things that has really helped us grow is we localized really early, and that's been great for our users, and one thing I see a lot of startup founders missing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sean Howell: Subscriptions represent roughly 60% of Hornet's revenue
“It's about a 60% subscription. And the rest is divide between programmatic advertising and direct sales.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sean Howell: 5% of Hornet monthly active users pay for subscriptions
“So we've got five percent of our monthly active users that are paying our subscription.”
Disclosure
Howell: Uber Signed a Recent Direct Advertising Deal with Hornet
“There's probably 5000, but Uber is a recent direct deal.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hornet: 50% of Paying Subscriptions Are Annual Plans
“50% of our subscriptions are actually annual.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hornet Monthly Recurring Subscriptions Average 5.5 Months Duration
“On the monthly renewal, those average out to five and a half months.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hornet raised $1.5M and reached breakeven in year three
“So we raised just about one and a half million very early in the company's history. And then we broke even through subscriptions in year three and we haven't fundraised since then.”
Assertion Partly supported
Howell: Grindr sold for 7x revenue while Match trades at 36x
“Well, if you're a match, it's like 36. But Grindr, I think, sold for seven.”