why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Rachitsky argues newsletter platforms lack moats because creators leave freely
“I don't know if anyone really has a moat. What's interesting is their pitch is you can come and you can leave anytime you want, which works really well for people like me that join. Cause there's no reason not to try it, but then the downside of people can lea…”
Insight
McCormick: Free newsletters grow faster and drive more serendipity than paid models
“And I want to keep it kind of free and open. I think it grows better. More people can read it. It creates more serendipity. Like there's just a lot of good things that come if I'm, you know, kind of willing to trade off the security of a paid subscription.”
Insight
Steer: Corporate blogs have lost value for analytical content
“People don't go there for, you know, analytical content anymore. They go there for the product announcements and that kind of thing, and so in order to do this right, I'm gonna start a new brand. I'm gonna do this on Substack instead”
Disclosure
Rachitsky: Lenny's Newsletter has 45k free and 3.3k paid subscribers
“I'm at about 45,000 free and about 30 3300 paid at this point.”
Insight
Rachitsky: Medium captures upside and SEO while withholding audience email addresses
“Why are you giving medium all of your content? They're gaining all of the upside, all of the SEO, all the subscribers. You don't get any email addresses of your audience. So you have no access if you leave. And so that was the benefit of sub stack. And it was …”
Prediction Held up
McCormick: Substack will not build an ad network anytime soon
“I don't think they're going to be building an ad network anytime soon, which is fine by me”
Disclosure
Poyar: Growth Unhinged grew to 20k+ readers in two years with $0 ad spend
“I actually write a weekly newsletter called Growth Unhinged. It's on Substack. Ah, I don't spend any money on acquiring users, but it, the, Newsletter's grown from zero to more than 20,000 readers in two years, and it's because of the community around the cont…”
Disclosure
Julian Frockman was an early angel investor in Substack
“One of my close friends from being in Austin is one of the founders of Substack. So I was an early investor there.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rachitsky: Lenny's Newsletter gained ~200 paid subscribers in days, ~400 in month one
“And so, yeah, I launched it and I got about 200 paid subscribers in the first couple of days. And then I got up to about 400 something in the first month and just kept growing.”
Assertion Supported
Rachitsky says Heather Cox Richardson is Substack's top earner at $1M
“Like the lady that's at the top of Substack right now, Heather Cox Richardson I'm rooting for her. She's making a million bucks.”