why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google's Firebase copied Branch's SDK variables and marketing collateral
“They launched a product in last year at Google IO that was a direct replica of branch under the Firebase brand called dynamic links, literally copied all of our marketing collateral. I think the variables of their iOS SDK you reused variables from my header fi…”
Insight
Enterprise deals closed faster when Branch started charging for its product
“We found that we could actually charge, and when we charge people, it found that enterprise customers actually closed faster than we were giving away for free, and we were making money.”
Assertion Supported
Austin: Branch lured Pinterest, Airbnb, and Etsy from Yozio, forcing its shutdown
“There was a company in our space when we first started that actually had Pinterest, Airbnb, and Etsy using them. When we had just launched literally brand new, super buggy product within a year and a half, all those companies were using us and that company had…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Austin: Google put 300 sales reps on Firebase Dynamic Links before effort stalled
“Then they threw 300 sales and marketing people at this product with the sole objective of pushing Firebase, deep linking, and replacing branch. So every single one of our customers got an email from somebody at Google. All of our pipeline got it. Like they wen…”
Disclosure
Austin: Branch aims for 98% app penetration to build mobile search index
“The goal though, is to get 98% of the app ecosystem using branch. Why is that a goal? Because when we have that, we basically indexed the app ecosystem. We built a directory of every page that's accessible inside apps and the analogous, you know, index in the …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Branch maintains less than 5% annual gross churn
“Five percent.
[673] Nathan Latka: Less than five percent.
[674] Nathan Latka: Okay, and that's gross churn.
[675] Mada Seghete: Yes.
[676] Mada Seghete: We do have very, very little churn.
[678] Mada Seghete: Most of our churn is actually, I think more than ha…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Seghete expects 70% of future growth to come from new customers
“I think it's probably going to be fifty-fifty or probably more like thirty-seventy.
[847] Mada Seghete: 30 coming from expansion, 70 from new customers.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Austin: Competition with Google will get much worse when Branch enters discovery
“It's going to get so much worse when we move into discovery.”
Assertion Partly supported
Branch powers 60% to 70% of the top 200 mobile apps
“We are in over 50,000 apps, and you know, I think 60 or 70% of the top 200 apps have branch, and that there's a lot of infrastructure.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Austin: Branch Enterprise ACV Averages $55,000 to $60,000
“Our enterprise clients, we have, I'd say average deal size right now is about 55 to 60 K, 6000 dollars. Annually.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Austin: Branch powers 40% of the mobile app ecosystem
“Right now at this point we have about 40% of the app ecosystem using Branch today. So, most, probably, most people have around, like, 10, 20 apps on their phone. About 40% of them are actively using Branch.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Austin: Over 26,000 developers are using Branch's SDK
“So we are now at, I think in terms of folks using the SDK, we're about over 26,000.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Austin: Branch has 40 to 50 enterprise customers
“So, yeah, so enterprise-wise, I think it's probably in the 40 to 50, and then there's, like, probably close to a couple thousand in terms of long tail, kind of, like, self-onboarded folks.”
Disclosure
Austin: Branch bootstrapped 'Mobile Growth' meetups across 40+ countries for marketing
“We basically started a meetup group. It's called Mobile Growth, and it's now in like over 40 different countries around the world. And we sort of like bootstrapped it just as a way to drive marketing to branch.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Austin: About 99% of Branch's revenue comes from enterprise clients
“Oh, like 99% of it.”
Disclosure
Austin: Kindred hit $500k ARR with 1% monthly growth before Branch pivot
“Basically, I think we got it to be around 500 K a year in revenue, but we were investing most of it back into the business but it wasn't growing. It was growing at like one percent a month or something terrible like that”