why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pysh: Bitcoin will probably peak between $200,000 and $300,000
“It's going to go straight through that number. It's probably going to go to two to 300,000.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pompliano: Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021
“I think that from now where we're recording this in April of 2020, I think that by the end of 2021, we'll see Bitcoin hit a 100,000 dollar price point”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Singh: Non-BTC/ETH Top 10 Cryptos Will Be Replaced Within Two Years
“So I personally, my belief is that everyone in the top 10 maybe bar ETH and Bitcoin will be switched out in the next 12 to 24 months.”
Prediction Held up
Yanowitz: Bitcoin will reach $20,000 to $100,000 within two years
“My price target for the next two years at a minimum is 20,000 dollars. That's at the low end. At the high end, that's a 100,000 dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pysh: Bitcoin hashing power shifted significantly from China to North America
“So like, I would tell you in the 2017 timeframe, you had an enormous amount of the hashing power coming out of China. Today, I would argue you have a, you've had a massive shift of hashing power come into the North America region.”
Prediction Held up
Yanowitz: Stimulus will cause equities, Bitcoin, and gold to rip
“When you get a ton of like stimulus, well, the equity market's going to pump. It's not just, I, you know, I think Bitcoin's going to go up. I think gold's going to go up, but I think the equity market's going to absolutely rip.”
Assertion Supported
BitCart disabled Bitcoin payments after Dash drove 90% of business
“We have funded BitCart who, an integration into BitCart. They're a service that allows you to buy Amazon gift cards for 15% discount. And after integrating Dash, they actually disabled Bitcoin because Bitcoin transactions were taking a long time. They were cau…”
Assertion Partly supported
Bogart: Grayscale's GBTC is the best traditional security wrapper for Bitcoin
“The reality is that this is the best product that exists today. It's not a perfect product, but it's the best that exists today, and the only way to get exposure to an exotic asset that is Bitcoin in a traditional security wrapper, right?”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin activated SegWit before Bitcoin did
“For example, this year we activated Segwit, which is a huge improvement to the protocol on Litecoin before it activated on Bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
Kwon: Bitcoin Miners Burn Energy Because Block Rewards Dwarf Transaction Fees
“You see that the block reward is a hefty, like, hundreds of millions of dollars a year, if not a billion at this point, of rewards. And the transaction fees, In comparison, are much smaller. That's why Bitcoin miners don't care about the transaction fee right …”
Assertion Supported
Wilcox: Zcash launched with zero pre-mine and relied purely on mining
“And what we did instead was we started with nobody having any of the money, and we just had mining, which was an innovation that we copied from Bitcoin, so that anyone who has a sufficiently powerful computer connected to the internet can participate in buildi…”
Prediction Held up
Tang: Bitcoin and Ethereum will coexist and serve distinct use cases
“I think all of these blockchains will exist, will coexist. So it's not like Ethereum is going to exist and Bitcoin is going to go away. My personal belief is that Bitcoin has its use case, and so does Ethereum.”
Assertion Supported
Yanowitz: May 2020 halving cuts daily Bitcoin supply from 1,800 to 900
“So what's about to happen in 30 days is the Bitcoin halvening will programmatically cut the daily incoming supply of Bitcoin from 1800 To 900.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bitcoin miners compete for a $25M to $30M daily revenue pool
“So the run, so the revenues available to miners to all the miners is, is 25 to thirty million dollars per day of revenue, which is what the miners compete for.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ethereum daily mining revenue pool mirrors Bitcoin at $25M to $30M
“So then it's a similar number for Ethereum as well.”
Assertion Supported
Lee: Litecoin has faster blocks and four times Bitcoin's coin supply
“So the major difference is, is Litecoin is, is faster than Bitcoin in terms of transaction speed or blocks, block speed. And there's more amount of Litecoin out there. There's four times as many Litecoin units than Bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
WordPress was an early major platform to accept Bitcoin at $12
“And WordPress, I think, was one of the first large Internet services to add support for accepting Bitcoin for our services. At the time, Bitcoin was about 12 dollars”
Assertion Supported
Wilcox: Zcash raised $3M from Silicon Valley and Bitcoin angels
“So what we did was, when we were planning this, and this was just gleams in our eyes, we raised funding from a set of Silicon Valley and Bitcoin angels. There were a couple of Silicon Valley DCs, but they were almost all angels. We raised three million dollars”
Assertion Supported
Wilcox: Zcash forks Bitcoin's codebase, not its blockchain
“It's a fork of the software. We copied the Bitcoin software and added our cryptographic improvements. Okay. But it's not a copy. It's not a fork of the Bitcoin blockchain. It's a separate independent blockchain, Zcash blockchain.”
Assertion Supported
Hung: Cryptocurrencies grew from approximately 67 in 2014 to over 400 in 2015
“On just 2014 as you know we on the market they only have a totally 6007 67 totally coin existing on the market it's like ethereum bitcoin litecoin ripple that's only 60 67 but only just one year after 2014 on 2015 The number already growing to, like, I remembe…”
Assertion Contradicted
Tang: Bitcoin's price is currently a little over $2,500
“Now Bitcoin price is, I think, a little over 2500 dollars.”