Spencer Bogart, managing director at Blockchain Capital, evaluates Grayscale's Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) in October 2017.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bogart: Odds of SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF remain very low
“I think it's still quite low. I mean, the SEC has made, you know, a pretty definitive decision about this, that the underlying markets for Bitcoin are too unregulated, and therefore they're not going to allow a regulated product. So it's kind of a circular arg…”
Opinion
Bogart: Crypto exchanges are massive honeypots, Poloniex carries higher risk
“Coinbase, Kraken, Poloniex, Poloniex probably being one of the bigger risks out there. You know, these are giant honeypots of Bitcoins, and the problem is once they're gone.”
Insight
Bogart: SEC regulators face asymmetric downside risk approving Bitcoin ETFs
“If you're at the SEC, you know, this is one of those things where if you approve this particular ETF, and it goes really well, you know, nobody comes back and kind of, you know, gives you a big promotion, right? But if you do approve it, and something goes wro…”
Assertion Partly supported
Bogart: Blockchain Capital capped its pioneering ICO venture fund at $10M
“We raised the world's very first venture fund via an ICO. So we limited the size. We capped it at just a small, ten million dollar offering to make sure that, you know, we can mitigate, mitigate risk there. And make sure that it's successful. That offering, th…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bogart: Blockchain Capital Fund 4 will almost certainly be oversubscribed at $250M
“It's almost certainly going to be an oversubscribed, two hundred and fifty million dollar fund.”
Disclosure
Bogart: Blockchain Capital conservatively estimates four unicorns in its portfolio
“Conservatively, we're estimating that there's probably four unicorns in our portfolio today.”