Spencer Bogart, Managing Director at Blockchain Capital, recounts the launch of the firm's third fund raised via a tokenized initial coin offering (ICO) in 2017.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bogart: Odds of SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF remain very low
“I think it's still quite low. I mean, the SEC has made, you know, a pretty definitive decision about this, that the underlying markets for Bitcoin are too unregulated, and therefore they're not going to allow a regulated product. So it's kind of a circular arg…”
Opinion
Bogart: Crypto exchanges are massive honeypots, Poloniex carries higher risk
“Coinbase, Kraken, Poloniex, Poloniex probably being one of the bigger risks out there. You know, these are giant honeypots of Bitcoins, and the problem is once they're gone.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bogart: Grayscale's GBTC is the best traditional security wrapper for Bitcoin
“The reality is that this is the best product that exists today. It's not a perfect product, but it's the best that exists today, and the only way to get exposure to an exotic asset that is Bitcoin in a traditional security wrapper, right?”
Insight
Bogart: SEC regulators face asymmetric downside risk approving Bitcoin ETFs
“If you're at the SEC, you know, this is one of those things where if you approve this particular ETF, and it goes really well, you know, nobody comes back and kind of, you know, gives you a big promotion, right? But if you do approve it, and something goes wro…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bogart: Blockchain Capital Fund 4 will almost certainly be oversubscribed at $250M
“It's almost certainly going to be an oversubscribed, two hundred and fifty million dollar fund.”
Disclosure
Bogart: Blockchain Capital conservatively estimates four unicorns in its portfolio
“Conservatively, we're estimating that there's probably four unicorns in our portfolio today.”