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Apr 11, 2017 · 21m · top-founders

EP 626: Senior Editor at The Atlantic Releases Book To Predict Popularity In New Distraction Age with writer Derek Thompson

Derek Thompson · 10m spoken Nathan Latka · 7m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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In this episode of The Top, host Nathan Latka interviews Atlantic senior editor Derek Thompson to explore the science of cultural popularity, the tension between familiarity and surprise in creative work, and the economic mechanics of traditional book publishing.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Nathan holds 41.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Nathan as informed peer 2.7 Guest teaching 3.4 Guest disagreement 0.7 Nathan pushing back 2.1
05100:0010:0020:001:38–4:44 · Nathan as informed peer 3/10 Introducing Derek Thompson and the Inspiration Behind Hit Makers Latka opens by questioning why anyone would write a book given the financial downsides, invoking Adam Grant and asking for productivity systems. Thompson articulates his broken elevator metaphor and defines creativity as the synthesis of surprise and familiarity.4:44–7:22 · Nathan as informed peer 3/10 Navigating Literary Agents and the Multi-Tiered Publishing Audience Latka inquires about literary agents and publishing deals. Thompson explains the multi-tiered concept of audiences, noting that authors must first appeal to agents, then publishers, then media gatekeepers before reaching the end reader.7:22–11:13 · Nathan as informed peer 5/10 Book Launch Timeline and Tracking Pre-Orders Latka probes into sales data, royalty structures, and the advance bidding spread. Thompson educates on how advances truncate risk distributions and polite declines revealing exact figures before providing the relative delta when pressed.11:13–14:24 · Nathan as informed peer 5/10 Unpredictability in Media: From Initial Rejection to Iconic Hits Latka challenges the premise of the book's subtitle, asking how Thompson can claim there is a science of hits if cultural successes are inherently unpredictable. Thompson counters with a meteorology analogy explaining chaotic systems.14:32–16:39 · Nathan as informed peer 0/10 Mid-Interview Sponsor Segment: Klipfolio Dashboards and FreshBooks Invoicing Solo host advertisement segment promoting Klipfolio and FreshBooks.16:42–19:05 · Nathan as informed peer 2/10 The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Derek Thompson Latka conducts the Famous Five rapid-fire segment. Thompson answers collaboratively with insights on Harari's books, Mark Zuckerberg, and career resilience.19:05–19:26 · Nathan as informed peer 1/10 Wrapping Up the Interview with Derek Thompson Latka wraps up the interview, thanks the guest, and delivers the episode outro and promotion.1:38–4:44 · Guest teaching 4/10 Introducing Derek Thompson and the Inspiration Behind Hit Makers Latka opens by questioning why anyone would write a book given the financial downsides, invoking Adam Grant and asking for productivity systems. Thompson articulates his broken elevator metaphor and defines creativity as the synthesis of surprise and familiarity.4:44–7:22 · Guest teaching 5/10 Navigating Literary Agents and the Multi-Tiered Publishing Audience Latka inquires about literary agents and publishing deals. Thompson explains the multi-tiered concept of audiences, noting that authors must first appeal to agents, then publishers, then media gatekeepers before reaching the end reader.7:22–11:13 · Guest teaching 6/10 Book Launch Timeline and Tracking Pre-Orders Latka probes into sales data, royalty structures, and the advance bidding spread. Thompson educates on how advances truncate risk distributions and polite declines revealing exact figures before providing the relative delta when pressed.11:13–14:24 · Guest teaching 7/10 Unpredictability in Media: From Initial Rejection to Iconic Hits Latka challenges the premise of the book's subtitle, asking how Thompson can claim there is a science of hits if cultural successes are inherently unpredictable. Thompson counters with a meteorology analogy explaining chaotic systems.14:32–16:39 · Guest teaching 0/10 Mid-Interview Sponsor Segment: Klipfolio Dashboards and FreshBooks Invoicing Solo host advertisement segment promoting Klipfolio and FreshBooks.16:42–19:05 · Guest teaching 2/10 The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Derek Thompson Latka conducts the Famous Five rapid-fire segment. Thompson answers collaboratively with insights on Harari's books, Mark Zuckerberg, and career resilience.19:05–19:26 · Guest teaching 0/10 Wrapping Up the Interview with Derek Thompson Latka wraps up the interview, thanks the guest, and delivers the episode outro and promotion.1:38–4:44 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Introducing Derek Thompson and the Inspiration Behind Hit Makers Latka opens by questioning why anyone would write a book given the financial downsides, invoking Adam Grant and asking for productivity systems. Thompson articulates his broken elevator metaphor and defines creativity as the synthesis of surprise and familiarity.4:44–7:22 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Navigating Literary Agents and the Multi-Tiered Publishing Audience Latka inquires about literary agents and publishing deals. Thompson explains the multi-tiered concept of audiences, noting that authors must first appeal to agents, then publishers, then media gatekeepers before reaching the end reader.7:22–11:13 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Book Launch Timeline and Tracking Pre-Orders Latka probes into sales data, royalty structures, and the advance bidding spread. Thompson educates on how advances truncate risk distributions and polite declines revealing exact figures before providing the relative delta when pressed.11:13–14:24 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Unpredictability in Media: From Initial Rejection to Iconic Hits Latka challenges the premise of the book's subtitle, asking how Thompson can claim there is a science of hits if cultural successes are inherently unpredictable. Thompson counters with a meteorology analogy explaining chaotic systems.14:32–16:39 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Mid-Interview Sponsor Segment: Klipfolio Dashboards and FreshBooks Invoicing Solo host advertisement segment promoting Klipfolio and FreshBooks.16:42–19:05 · Guest disagreement 0/10 The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Derek Thompson Latka conducts the Famous Five rapid-fire segment. Thompson answers collaboratively with insights on Harari's books, Mark Zuckerberg, and career resilience.19:05–19:26 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Wrapping Up the Interview with Derek Thompson Latka wraps up the interview, thanks the guest, and delivers the episode outro and promotion.1:38–4:44 · Nathan pushing back 2/10 Introducing Derek Thompson and the Inspiration Behind Hit Makers Latka opens by questioning why anyone would write a book given the financial downsides, invoking Adam Grant and asking for productivity systems. Thompson articulates his broken elevator metaphor and defines creativity as the synthesis of surprise and familiarity.4:44–7:22 · Nathan pushing back 1/10 Navigating Literary Agents and the Multi-Tiered Publishing Audience Latka inquires about literary agents and publishing deals. Thompson explains the multi-tiered concept of audiences, noting that authors must first appeal to agents, then publishers, then media gatekeepers before reaching the end reader.7:22–11:13 · Nathan pushing back 5/10 Book Launch Timeline and Tracking Pre-Orders Latka probes into sales data, royalty structures, and the advance bidding spread. Thompson educates on how advances truncate risk distributions and polite declines revealing exact figures before providing the relative delta when pressed.11:13–14:24 · Nathan pushing back 6/10 Unpredictability in Media: From Initial Rejection to Iconic Hits Latka challenges the premise of the book's subtitle, asking how Thompson can claim there is a science of hits if cultural successes are inherently unpredictable. Thompson counters with a meteorology analogy explaining chaotic systems.14:32–16:39 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 Mid-Interview Sponsor Segment: Klipfolio Dashboards and FreshBooks Invoicing Solo host advertisement segment promoting Klipfolio and FreshBooks.16:42–19:05 · Nathan pushing back 1/10 The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Derek Thompson Latka conducts the Famous Five rapid-fire segment. Thompson answers collaboratively with insights on Harari's books, Mark Zuckerberg, and career resilience.19:05–19:26 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 Wrapping Up the Interview with Derek Thompson Latka wraps up the interview, thanks the guest, and delivers the episode outro and promotion.

speaking balance: gold is Nathan, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Nathan 73.5% · guest 26.5%0:00 · Nathan 73.5% · guest 26.5%3:00 · Nathan 21.7% · guest 78.3%3:00 · Nathan 21.7% · guest 78.3%6:00 · Nathan 15.3% · guest 84.7%6:00 · Nathan 15.3% · guest 84.7%9:00 · Nathan 19.6% · guest 80.4%9:00 · Nathan 19.6% · guest 80.4%12:00 · Nathan 25.5% · guest 74.5%12:00 · Nathan 25.5% · guest 74.5%15:00 · Nathan 73.4% · guest 26.6%15:00 · Nathan 73.4% · guest 26.6%18:00 · Nathan 64.6% · guest 35.4%18:00 · Nathan 64.6% · guest 35.4%21:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 0%21:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 0%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 10:31 Thompson demurs on disclosing advance numbers

Thompson explicitly refuses to disclose exact contract numbers citing guidance from his literary agent.

 Hardest push from Nathan ▶ 12:52 Latka challenges the scientific premise of Hit Makers

Latka directly confronts Thompson on how he can claim a scientific predictive methodology while arguing cultural hits are unpredictable.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 13:09 Thompson's meteorology analogy on chaotic systems

Thompson educates Latka by drawing a parallel to weather forecasting, showing how understanding mechanisms does not equal long-range chaotic prediction.

 Nathan holds their own ▶ 10:43 Latka reframes push for advance data to delta ratio

When Thompson attempts to deflect the financial question, Latka immediately reframes it to ask strictly for the relative spread rather than the dollar figure.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicNathan as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementNathan pushing backWhy
Introducing Derek Thompson and the Inspiration Behind Hit Makers 3412 Latka opens by questioning why anyone would write a book given the financial downsides, invoking Adam Grant and asking for productivity systems. Thompson articulates his broken elevator metaphor and defines creativity as the synthesis of surprise and familiarity.
Navigating Literary Agents and the Multi-Tiered Publishing Audience 3501 Latka inquires about literary agents and publishing deals. Thompson explains the multi-tiered concept of audiences, noting that authors must first appeal to agents, then publishers, then media gatekeepers before reaching the end reader.
Book Launch Timeline and Tracking Pre-Orders 5625 Latka probes into sales data, royalty structures, and the advance bidding spread. Thompson educates on how advances truncate risk distributions and polite declines revealing exact figures before providing the relative delta when pressed.
Unpredictability in Media: From Initial Rejection to Iconic Hits 5726 Latka challenges the premise of the book's subtitle, asking how Thompson can claim there is a science of hits if cultural successes are inherently unpredictable. Thompson counters with a meteorology analogy explaining chaotic systems.
Mid-Interview Sponsor Segment: Klipfolio Dashboards and FreshBooks Invoicing 0000 Solo host advertisement segment promoting Klipfolio and FreshBooks.
The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Derek Thompson 2201 Latka conducts the Famous Five rapid-fire segment. Thompson answers collaboratively with insights on Harari's books, Mark Zuckerberg, and career resilience.
Wrapping Up the Interview with Derek Thompson 1000 Latka wraps up the interview, thanks the guest, and delivers the episode outro and promotion.

Statements from this episode (7)

Insight
Books Are Like Broken Elevators: Pitch Fast, Entertain for Hours
“I think books are really kind of like broken elevators. On the one hand, you need both an elevator pitch But also it's like 203 hundred pages long. So if the elevator breaks, you need to be able to entertain people for eight hours.”
Derek Thompson Apr 11, 2017 ▶ 2:38
Insight
Creativity Is Finding Surprising Answers to Familiar Problems
“I think that, you know, creativity is the ability to come up with surprising answers to familiar problems. If you come up with surprising answers to problems that people don't think about all the time, no one calls that creative. When you come up with familiar…”
Derek Thompson Apr 11, 2017 ▶ 3:33
Insight
Media Creators Must Target the Audience of Their Audience
“I think that, you know, media people can probably become a little bit more sophisticated in the way that they think about how their audiences are both the end consumer and the broadcasters who reach those end consumers. That sometimes they need to think about …”
Derek Thompson Apr 11, 2017 ▶ 7:00
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Publisher Advance Bids for Hit Makers Had a 2x Spread
“I would say the delta was probably about probably about two X. That but that includes people who were sort of in the bid.”
Derek Thompson Apr 11, 2017 ▶ 10:55
Opinion
Virality Is a Myth in Cultural Markets
“Whether ideas go viral or whether virality is a myth, which is one of the theses in the book, which is the virality doesn't really exist.”
Derek Thompson Apr 11, 2017 ▶ 14:06
Opinion
Mark Zuckerberg Is a Surprisingly Clear and Empathetic Thinker
“The company that he's built has no historical precedent really. But I also think he's an incredibly, surprisingly clear and empathetic thinker about world events.”
Derek Thompson Apr 11, 2017 ▶ 17:13
Prediction Held up
Mark Zuckerberg Might Run for President in 2024
“No, but he might run in twenty-twenty-four.”
Derek Thompson Apr 11, 2017 ▶ 17:28
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