Apr 15, 2020 · 1h 2m · top-founders
New podcast: Jason Yanowitz on Consequences of Fed Stimulus, Socialism Next, Bitcoin Halving
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this in-depth interview, host Nathan Latka and Blockworks Group co-founder Jason Yanowitz examine the macroeconomic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, analyzing how Federal Reserve monetary debasement, escalating national debt, and systemic inequality establish a powerful investment thesis for Bitcoin.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Nathan holds 32.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Nathan as informed peer 5.4 Guest teaching 4.2 Guest disagreement 1.6 Nathan pushing back 3.2
speaking balance: gold is Nathan, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 14:18 Direct rejection of dry powder criticism
Yanowitz flatly rejects the host's premise that the Fed prematurely exhausted its dry powder, insisting this is the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Hardest push from Nathan ▶ 46:47 Challenging the China victory narrativeLatka systematically dismantles the guest's thesis that China wins post-crisis by citing supply chain repatriation, economic damage, and untrustworthy government statistics.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 53:27 Detailed breakdown of the Bitcoin halving mechanicsYanowitz provides an extensive educational breakdown comparing gold mining capacity cuts to Bitcoin's programmatic reduction of daily block rewards from 1800 to 900.
Nathan holds their own ▶ 10:07 Latka's money velocity masterclassLatka demonstrates sharp macroeconomic expertise by outlining money velocity theory and explaining why printed stimulus fails if recipients hoard liquidity during lockdown.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Nathan as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Nathan pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Crisis Vulnerabilities, Liquidity Crunch, and Deficit Hole | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Yanowitz lays out the macroeconomic backdrop of extreme leverage, historic market declines, and the projected GDP hole. Latka intervenes constructively to clarify US vs global GDP metrics and margin call mechanics. | |
| US Debt-to-GDP Ratio and the Money Velocity Dilemma | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Latka presents detailed per-capita debt figures and articulates the economic theory of money velocity, asking how stimulus can function if recipients hoard cash. Yanowitz readily concedes Latka completely nailed the velocity dilemma. | |
| Housing Crisis, Rent Relief, and Limitations of Rate Cuts | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Latka questions whether slashing interest rates to zero wasted valuable dry powder. Yanowitz firmly disagrees, citing housing payment default data to argue that aggressive intervention was immediately necessary. | |
| Inefficiencies in Small Business Lending and PPP Distribution | 6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | Latka pushes back against Yanowitz's proposals for rent freezes and corporate tax cuts by highlighting the resulting government revenue shortfall and landlord debt defaults. Yanowitz acknowledges the dilemma and details structural hurdles in PPP lending. | |
| Global Dollar Debt, Corporate Buybacks, and Wealth Inequality | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | Latka introduces sovereign dollar-debt vulnerabilities in emerging markets like Chile and corrects Yanowitz on corporate debt issuance terms. Yanowitz builds on this to discuss how asset inflation widens wealth inequality. | |
| Comparing Fragile Fiat Systems to Bitcoin as Sound Money | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Latka asks how unbanked or paycheck-to-paycheck citizens can adopt Bitcoin during a crisis. Yanowitz details the mechanism of generational wealth transfer and mobile brokerage adoption among millennials. | |
| Bailout Cronyism, Creeping Socialism, and Proposed Equity Pools | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Latka calculates the government's share of GDP under stimulus to argue the US is drifting into socialism, proposing startup-style equity option pools for citizens in corporate bailouts. Yanowitz agrees, condemning corporate bailouts as crony capitalism. | |
| Pension Crises, Tax Inadequacies, and Inflationary Hedges | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | When Yanowitz briefly suggests pensions, Latka immediately points out existing pension insolvency and demonstrates with specific cash reserves that taxing big tech cannot bridge a twenty-trillion-dollar hole. | |
| Extreme Scenarios: Market Halts, Bank Seizures, and Currency Reset | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Yanowitz sketches out extreme tail-risk scenarios including prolonged stock exchange halts, regional bank seizures, and currency redenomination. Latka listens closely while probing the geopolitical fallout. | |
| Changing World Order and China's Geopolitical Trajectory | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | Yanowitz asserts that China emerges as the geopolitical victor due to swift centralized containment and medical diplomacy. Latka counters by pointing out impending Western supply chain reshoring and unreliable official pandemic reporting. | |
| Surveillance State Expansion, Privacy Risks, and Electoral Uncertainty | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Latka warns that the pandemic will provide cover for biometric surveillance expansion and electoral manipulation. Yanowitz agrees, observing that bulk mobile tracking data is already available to tech companies. | |
| The Mechanics and Economic Impact of the Bitcoin Halving | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Yanowitz explains the programmatic supply cut of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Latka quickly computes the underlying cash flow math to confirm the drop in monthly capital requirements from four hundred million to two hundred million. | |
| Bitcoin Price Projections, Asymmetric Bets, and Purchasing Power | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | Yanowitz shares aggressive price targets between twenty thousand and one hundred thousand dollars. Latka challenges the real value of that target if rapid fiat balance sheet expansion severely degrades dollar purchasing power. | |
| Blockworks Group Overview, Podcast Recommendations, and Conclusion | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Standard wrap-up segment where Yanowitz introduces Blockworks Group's media offerings and podcast recommendations. |
Statements from this episode (24)
Yanowitz: Pre-COVID corporate economy ran at record 3.5x leverage
“You had an economy that was running it Three and a half times leverage, most leverage in history.”
Yanowitz: US stock market doubled despite flat corporate profits
“You had pre-tax corporate profits in the U S hadn't grown in like five, six, seven years. Right. But the market had doubled, right. Because of corporate buyback.”
Yanowitz: US saw more unemployment in three weeks than during 2008 crisis
“Sixteen million unemployed in three weeks. That's more than we're unemployed in the global financial crisis.”
Yanowitz: Fed stimulus cannot drive GDP growth during pandemic lockdowns
“In the 2008, 2009, the pumping money into the economy that actually worked really well. Right. And we got out of that recession. Why? Because it was a financial crisis. So people didn't have enough money. You print more money, you give them more money. They go…”
Yanowitz: US mortgage delay requests surged up to 1,900% in March 2020
“Request to delay mortgage payments grew by 1300% between the mark, the week of March second and the week of March 16th and another 1900% in the set in the latter two weeks of March.”
Yanowitz: One-third of US apartment renters did not pay March 2020 rent
“33% of US apartment renters didn't pay
Their April rent, or excuse me, didn't pay their March rent, right?”
Yanowitz: COVID-19 is the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression
“This is the greatest financial crisis that we've seen since the great depression.”
Yanowitz: The Fed is not built to distribute money directly to small businesses
“The Fed, like when the Fed does these buyback programs and you know, gives money to the banks and things like that, or excuse me, tries to give money to small businesses.
They're not set up to give money to individuals and small businesses.”
Yanowitz: Federal Reserve balance sheet will reach $10 trillion
“I think we're, we'll be at 10 trillion dollars right on the feds balance sheet, which is basically the amount of money that's in the economy right now.”
Yanowitz: Stimulus will cause equities, Bitcoin, and gold to rip
“When you get a ton of like stimulus, well, the equity market's going to pump. It's not just, I, you know, I think Bitcoin's going to go up. I think gold's going to go up, but I think the equity market's going to absolutely rip.”
Latka: China's Debt-to-GDP Is Around 300% Versus 104-105% in US
“China over the past couple of years, you've actually seen about 300% in terms of debt to GDP ratio. We're only at called 104 105%.”
Yanowitz: Institutional investors will allocate 1% to 2% to Bitcoin as a hedge
“What you're going to have is you're going to say, you're going to have these folks saying,
I need to hedge against the, I need to hedge against our current system because we are in a system that they see completely falling apart.
And so they need to, what they…”
Yanowitz: Generational wealth transfer of trillions will heavily benefit Bitcoin
“Plus you've got a massive transference of wealth of trillions of dollars going from old folks to millennials.
And we know one thing, which is millennials love Bitcoin.”
Schwab report: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is a top five millennial holding
“Charles Schwab put out an interesting report. It was like, it showed the baby boomers, their top 10 holdings, Gen X, their top 10 holdings and millennials, their top 10 holdings. Well in the top 10 holdings for all three of those classes, you had Amazon, you h…”
Latka: Class Warfare Will Increase 10x Without Citizen Bailout Equity
“I think you're going to see, like, if you think what's happened in the past four years politically is bad, I think you're going to see 10 times that in terms of class warfare. If the government continues to bail out companies without giving the average America…”
Latka: Confiscating top corporate cash reserves cannot solve the US deficit
“Even in Q four, two, 19, Microsoft, one hundred thirty six billion Berkshire Hathaway, one hundred twenty eight billion Alphabet one twenty one billion Apple a hundred billion. Even if you took all of that money, it doesn't barely even make a dent. In the 20 t…”
Yanowitz: China emerges as the geopolitical winner from the COVID-19 pandemic
“China wins.
And that this was not like, this wasn't the case after nine, 11 in the financial crisis.
Like after both of those, the U S stepped up, right?
The U S like had everyone else's back, but this is
A, like we're just feeling it's very de-globalized bec…”
Latka: Supply chain exodus will hit China's GDP hard
“I believe you're going to see a mass exodus of a lot of companies who used to have supply chains in China, moving out of China.
I think you're gonna see China's GDP get hit very, very hard from this.”
Latka: Biometric version of the Patriot Act could be proposed
“You're going to see potentially a biometric version of the Patriot Act come into place here in the States, at least be proposed by somebody.”
Yanowitz: November 2020 US presidential election could be delayed
“I do wonder if we will have an election in November. I'll say that. I don't know. I w I don't think it's crazy to think that we won't have, what happens is you delay, quote unquote, you delay the election in November.”
Yanowitz: May 2020 halving cuts daily Bitcoin supply from 1,800 to 900
“So what's about to happen in 30 days is the Bitcoin halvening will programmatically cut the daily incoming supply of Bitcoin from 1800 To 900.”