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Jul 24, 2023 · 19m · top-founders

3 Frameworks to Help Forecast & Inform your Board in Your First Three Year

David Appel · 16m spoken Nathan Latka · 46s spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this SaaSOpen presentation, Sage's David Appel outlines three essential financial frameworks to help early-stage B2B SaaS founders identify core metrics, set stage-appropriate growth targets, and build reliable multi-scenario forecasts for board alignment.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Nathan holds 4.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Nathan as informed peer 0.0 Guest teaching 0.0 Guest disagreement 0.0 Nathan pushing back 0.0
05100:0010:002:03–7:57 · Nathan as informed peer 0/10 Identifying Metrics and the Cathedral Builder Parable This is a solo presentation delivered on stage by David Appel to a live conference audience. Because the host is not present in the segment, host expertise and pushback scores are zero, with no guest combativeness.7:59–12:01 · Nathan as informed peer 0/10 Setting Targets Across SaaS Growth Stages David continues his monologue outlining SaaS growth metrics from Seed to Series C and prompting audience self-reflection. There is no host interaction or adversarial friction.12:02–19:07 · Nathan as informed peer 0/10 Forecasting Methods, Progress Tracking, and Scenario Planning David details forecasting probabilities, spreadsheet models, and macroeconomic shifts like the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Without a host present to challenge or interact, scores remain at baseline zero.2:03–7:57 · Guest teaching 0/10 Identifying Metrics and the Cathedral Builder Parable This is a solo presentation delivered on stage by David Appel to a live conference audience. Because the host is not present in the segment, host expertise and pushback scores are zero, with no guest combativeness.7:59–12:01 · Guest teaching 0/10 Setting Targets Across SaaS Growth Stages David continues his monologue outlining SaaS growth metrics from Seed to Series C and prompting audience self-reflection. There is no host interaction or adversarial friction.12:02–19:07 · Guest teaching 0/10 Forecasting Methods, Progress Tracking, and Scenario Planning David details forecasting probabilities, spreadsheet models, and macroeconomic shifts like the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Without a host present to challenge or interact, scores remain at baseline zero.2:03–7:57 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Identifying Metrics and the Cathedral Builder Parable This is a solo presentation delivered on stage by David Appel to a live conference audience. Because the host is not present in the segment, host expertise and pushback scores are zero, with no guest combativeness.7:59–12:01 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Setting Targets Across SaaS Growth Stages David continues his monologue outlining SaaS growth metrics from Seed to Series C and prompting audience self-reflection. There is no host interaction or adversarial friction.12:02–19:07 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Forecasting Methods, Progress Tracking, and Scenario Planning David details forecasting probabilities, spreadsheet models, and macroeconomic shifts like the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Without a host present to challenge or interact, scores remain at baseline zero.2:03–7:57 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 Identifying Metrics and the Cathedral Builder Parable This is a solo presentation delivered on stage by David Appel to a live conference audience. Because the host is not present in the segment, host expertise and pushback scores are zero, with no guest combativeness.7:59–12:01 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 Setting Targets Across SaaS Growth Stages David continues his monologue outlining SaaS growth metrics from Seed to Series C and prompting audience self-reflection. There is no host interaction or adversarial friction.12:02–19:07 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 Forecasting Methods, Progress Tracking, and Scenario Planning David details forecasting probabilities, spreadsheet models, and macroeconomic shifts like the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Without a host present to challenge or interact, scores remain at baseline zero.

speaking balance: gold is Nathan, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Nathan 29.1% · guest 70.9%0:00 · Nathan 29.1% · guest 70.9%3:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%3:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%6:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%6:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%9:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%9:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%12:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%12:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%15:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%15:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%18:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%18:00 · Nathan 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 14:05 Highlighting Macro Uncertainty and SVB Fallout

In a talk devoid of interpersonal friction, David's most assertive moment is warning founders about structural issues in tech fundraising and unexpected black swan events.

 Hardest push from Nathan ▶ 19:37 Moderator Cuts Off Audience Questions

The conference moderator steps in to inform David that time has expired and questions cannot be taken.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 3:30 Defining the Meaningful Underlying Business Dynamic

David instructs the audience on distinguishing between low-level tactical execution and high-level strategic alignment with executive teams and boards.

 Nathan holds their own ▶ 0:00 Nathan Latka's Conference Introduction

Nathan establishes the high standards of the conference and introduces his platform database for evaluating SaaS metrics.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicNathan as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementNathan pushing backWhy
Identifying Metrics and the Cathedral Builder Parable 0000 This is a solo presentation delivered on stage by David Appel to a live conference audience. Because the host is not present in the segment, host expertise and pushback scores are zero, with no guest combativeness.
Setting Targets Across SaaS Growth Stages 0000 David continues his monologue outlining SaaS growth metrics from Seed to Series C and prompting audience self-reflection. There is no host interaction or adversarial friction.
Forecasting Methods, Progress Tracking, and Scenario Planning 0000 David details forecasting probabilities, spreadsheet models, and macroeconomic shifts like the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Without a host present to challenge or interact, scores remain at baseline zero.

Statements from this episode (4)

Assertion Partly supported
Appel: Box defines implied ACV as customers spending over $5k ARR
“Implied ACV. Does anybody know what implied ACV is? Customers that spend over 5000 dollars a year in ARR with them.”
David Appel Jul 24, 2023 ▶ 5:33
Insight
Appel: SaaS growth targets evolve from PMF at Seed to profitability at Series C
“Seed, product market fit, series A, prove you can sell it, series B, prove you can expand and keep those customers, series C and beyond, make it repeatable, profitable, and predictable, and then a big milestone, take a capital efficient model, move it to adjac…”
David Appel Jul 24, 2023 ▶ 8:04
Insight
Appel advises startups to base operating plans on a 60% probability
“There's different types of forecasts. The plan, your stretch, and your BHAG. Your plan is 60% likely to hit. And this is what you want to do in building what your valuation's coming from against these metrics that we've talked about. But this is what you want …”
David Appel Jul 24, 2023 ▶ 12:05
Insight
Appel advises setting startup stretch targets at a 30% probability
“The stretch is 30% chance of beating. This is the rally target for the company around a big milestone.”
David Appel Jul 24, 2023 ▶ 12:24
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