The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,135 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 48 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Middleton projects CurieDx will make $500K annually, rejecting founder's $6M estimate
“The financial part, she needs to button up, because my math is she'll make 500,000 dollars a year in the next two years, not six million.”
Alvarez: There are no significant technological moats in generative AI
“So, there isn't, like, crazy motes in Gen.AI.”
Alvarez: Jungle experiences 12% churn in-semester and 19% in summer
“So the churn on our paid subscription is 12% during a semester, and then around 19% during seasonality moments like summer.”
Alvarez: ChatGPT helps Jungle by increasing student awareness of AI study tools
“I think something like ChatGPT helps us more than it hurts us, because it makes people more aware of AI and its capabilities, and it leads people to search more like AI sort of generated questions, flashcards, stuff like that.”
Material expects its battery manufacturing costs to reach $85–$90 per kWh
“We expect to be able to manufacture at somewhere around the 85 to 90 dollars per kilowatt hour.”
Wiseman: Battery market competition destroys pricing power and gross margins
“I'm concerned about the gross margins at this point. I'd want to see much higher margins, or at least a path that could get me to significantly higher margins, and I just think that speaks to the, unfortunately, the intensity of the competitive dynamics here, …”
Elias: F1 engineering takes conventional automakers four times longer
“The things I was able to do in Formula One would take a conventional auto manufacturer, probably four or five times the amount of time and money for that matter.”
Elias: Chinese oversupply keeps battery prices at unsustainably low levels
“I really think the battery industry specifically is artificially constrained by the oversupply, obviously, that we know from China, and that keeps the prices at a lower level than what's probably sustainable.”
Material cuts nanomaterial manufacturing costs 100x to sub-dollar per gram
“We've actually developed a way to manufacture these nanomaterials at fractions of a dollar per gram, which is, I mean, a hundred X cost decrease over what we have in the lab.”
Castellanos: Science on Call rolled out no-human-in-the-loop troubleshooting
“So in the last week we rolled out fully end to end conversational troubleshooting. So there is no human in the loop to respond to a text.”
Castellanos targets $125M ARR for Science on Call in five years
“Yeah, I think in the next five years we want to be at a hundred and twenty-five million in ARR, and that'll include going abroad to other countries, Europe and Latin America, as well as convenience stores and retail, and we want to be able to automate 80% of w…”
Muccio: Jesse Middleton ghosted Science On Call after the pitch
“After the show, two calls and a ghosting. Jessie's the ghost. Jessie, check your email.”
Fielding: $350 annual per-user employer fee is unseen in B2B software
“For healthcare, I haven't seen it for software.”
Metzer: Smart shoes build aspirational brands impossible with insoles
“And so we think we can build a really exciting and aspirational brand around the first of its kind smart running shoe in a way that you just can't around an insole that's hidden inside of your shoes or a gadget that's attached to your laces.”
Metzer: Running Injury Rates Unchanged in 50 Years Despite Footwear Changes
“The thing about running-related injury and the rate of injury, it hasn't changed for 50 years, it hasn't improved. It doesn't matter what shoes are running in, and so ultimately what we've learned The shoe can have a small impact, the materials of the shoe, an…”
Metzer: Incumbent Footwear Brands Lack The DNA To Build Technology
“And so the footwear brands, they're just not going to build technology. They don't want to extend their business into technology. You're talking about hardware and software, and it's just not in their DNA.”
Kwok: KAV has an estimated $15M to $20M R&D moat over potential rivals
“Right now, We have probably like a 15 or twenty million dollar R&D moat between us and them.”
Doherty: At $21M post, 30x return requires up to $1.2B exit
“I think like just doing some back, back of the napkin math on a 21 post to hit like our Outcome goals. There'd have to be at least a six hundred million dollar exit with no additional financing. And as you mentioned, like one of the things that you're looking …”
Phillips: 11 Tribes underwrites deals to a 10x return multiple
“Well, it's just, we underwrite to 10.”
Gupta: Unlike big brands, KAV Sports achieved custom manufacturing profitability
“I think, broader, a lot of companies have tried custom. Big brands. And they just can't get it to work anywhere near profitability. And this company has.”
Gupta: KAV Sports' $18M pre-money valuation is a steal
“I don't think it, I don't think 18 is high. I think I was, I think I got a steal.”
Callegari: 95% of New Shareholder Value Will Come From the US
“No, what we believe is that 95% of the shareholder value we're going to generate in the next year will come from the US.”
US Revenue Hit 25% of Italy's 8-Year Total in First Year
“I mean, in less than one year, I'm making more than 25% of all the revenues that I'm generating in Italy in eight years.”
Hudson: Grooming Businesses Exit at 2x to 3x Top-Line Revenue
“My big takeaway is these businesses tend to trade at two to three times top line revenue at the end of the day, and so for me the big question Isn't how do you get to 50, it's how do you get to two to 300.”
Yin Passes on Capital-Intensive $10M Retail Expansion Plan
“At sort of this ten million plan, it feels too much. Because I do think actually in this day and age, having other companies who have done it, you can Open these stores in a less dilutive way. So for that reason, I'm out.”
The government opened $1.2B in Work-Study subsidies to for-profits in 2020
“Around three billion dollars in wage subsidies comes from the federal government and the state government. So each year there's a program called Work Study. It's about 1.2 billion dollars. In 2020, they opened it up to for-profit companies because college camp…”
FolioWorks is the first Work-Study employer of record for for-profits
“And so they opened up to for-profits and we became the first company to be the employer of record on behalf of any other company.”
Wong: Enterprise clients will not cut FolioWorks out due to reporting burdens
“I don't think that means they're going to cut us out. I think that it would take a lot of effort for them to do all the reporting that's required to Create a work study-approved job, and then do all of the reporting that's completed by us, but we're building t…”
Lockstop: Competitors Cost 5 to 100 Times More and Require Heavy Infrastructure
“But those existing solutions that are out there, like Uni and Bike Keep, cost five to a hundred times the cost of a lock stop device. They require infrastructure and a lot of space allocation.”
Burton: Lockstop expects to break even within 24 months
“In 24 months is when we expect to hit our break-even point, and so that 1.5 takes us all the way to that position where we're generating our own revenue and we're floating our own boat.”
Burton: Physical Municipal Hardware Is Hard to Disrupt Once Installed
“Anything that's hard to do is hard to disrupt. And there's a lot of SaaS and AI going on in the market right now, and for us, it's like, once we have a hardware component there, it's very difficult to remove, just because the city doesn't want to have to make …”
Middleton: Never Accept an Advisor Who Could Be an Investor
“My rule of thumb is don't let anybody be an advisor who can otherwise be an investor.”
Robbins: Most businesses currently fundraising probably shouldn't raise capital
“I actually think most people probably shouldn't fundraise. I think most businesses that are fundraising probably shouldn't fundraise.”
Locker Founder: LTK and ShopMy Gatekeep Influencer Curation and Earnings
“Platforms like LTK, ShopMy have gatekept who gets to be an influencer and curate and earn off of their recommendations.”
Howie Diamond: Outlines won't achieve mainstream adoption due to high prices
“I don't see the mainstream adoption for this product because the price is way too high and way too premium for me to
To get involved in this because I just think it's going to be a very, very small select people who care about the environmental impacts to get …”
Jillian Manus: Outlines is overly complicated across manufacturing, recovery, and recycling
“I think that this is overly complicated. You are designing, you're manufacturing, you're recovering, you're replenishing, you're recycling. It's a lot. And I would love to see you focus on one thing, or even build almost a SaaS product that's logistics for rep…”
Sarah Cohn: B2B retail replenishment services are low-margin and uncompelling
“Taking the smallest, lowest value, lowest margin component of that full stack business, which is the recycling, and making a whole business out of that is like, that's not compelling at all.”
Doherty: Apple will meaningfully build spatial memory tech within five years
“I think that Apple will start, like, working on this in a really meaningful way in the next, like, Five years.”
Kinzie Lux: Ride iQ TAM exceeds $20B across four verticals
“The TAM is north of twenty billion dollars when we expand across three other verticals.”
Jessa Lux: Top equestrian athletes often live paycheck to paycheck
“Unfortunately, people who are top equestrian athletes, they're still kind of living paycheck to paycheck. Like, it doesn't have a financial model that can support these people the way they should.”
Howie Diamond: Ride iQ will take our money in 18 months
“They'll take our money in a year and a half from now. ... They will. Trust me.”
Al Bsharah: Active founders should hold four investor conversations every few days
“You should be having four conversations every couple of days, if not every day.”
Jessa Lux: Accepting VC funding is not worth enduring investor stress
“The momentum would have been great, and those follow-on deals would have been great, but it's not worth a check to get someone in the door who's going to be a source of stress.”
Jessa Lux: Techstars Mentor Madness is emotionally distressing and counterproductive
“There have been times that I look back, and I'm like, they should not do that. That's, you know, like, emotionally distressing, and of course, getting contradictory advice that whole time.”
Yin: Uncovered Lacks Venture Returns and Is Pivoting to an Undefined Model
“He wants to fund the media company, which doesn't have that venture return, to be able to pivot into one of these other things that doesn't yet have clear direction.”