The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 56 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Trump: Musk will criticize me personally next
“He hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm sure that'll be next.”
Rabois: Trump administration will find a way to ban Chinese robots
“I would be shocked if this administration doesn't figure out a way to ban Chinese robots before it's too late.”
Chesky Predicts Real-Time AI-Generated Interfaces Within Two Years
“I think you're going to even be able to see real time AI generated interface the next year or two.”
Gurman: Federighi, O'Brien, Cue, and Joswiak Will Not Succeed Tim Cook
“It's for sure not going to be Craig. It's not going to be Deirdre. It's not going to be Eddie. It's not going to be Jaws.”
Kim: Elon Musk will pitch space-based GPU satellites for SpaceX IPO
“I think Elon's pitch with the SpaceX IPO, and we'll see it in the coming months, is the AI compute, it's gonna be so, there's gonna be so much demand over the next five, 10 years, that you're gonna have to use these SpaceX satellites that have GPUs in them. To…”
Shah: Consumers will use AI agents for autonomous purchases within six months
“You just, and no one's really doing this yet, but it's going to happen, I think, you know, in the next six months. Is just tell your agent, you know, tell Gemini, tell ChatGPT, go buy these things, it has your credit card, and now that world that they were des…”
Shah: Anthropic will likely IPO in the next 3 to 6 months
“I have a strong suspicion that Anthropic is going to go, you know, in the next three to six months. They just have so much momentum and there's a lot of value being first.”
Bishop: Trump will delay $20 billion Taiwan arms sale until Xi meeting
“Over the weekend, you know, we saw, I think on Friday, the Financial Times reported, yes, there's a twenty billion dollar package in the works and it's something the Chinese don't want to have happen, and they have threatened to postpone or cancel Trump's visi…”
Tyler Hogge predicts the US government will provide AI loan backstops
“But a backstop of loans, I would expect that to happen.”
Scott Wu predicts AI will win IMO gold in 2025 or 2026
“I think it's probably gonna happen this year. And if not this year, then next year.”
Stebbings: Endowment pullbacks will severely reduce new VC fund managers in 2025
“When I speak to a lot of endowments today, they're simply not adding new managers, and they're even trimming their existing, and so I think that's bluntly gonna really impact the amount of new managers that we see this year.”
Petersen Predicts US Tariffs Will Expand Beyond China and Vietnam
“I would predict, and I don't have any evidence for this, but my intuition tells me I would predict some tariffs on other countries besides just Vietnam, that a lot of these people think they have a safe haven for their products, but maybe we'll wake up to a ru…”
Coogan: Novo Nordisk supply will eventually severely limit compounded GLP-1s
“It may take a few more quarters, but Novo Nordisk will eventually produce enough supply to end the shortage of its drug. When that happens, despite their efforts to influence public opinion, Compounded versions will likely be severely limited.”
Coogan: OpenAI will introduce free-tier ads and up to $2,000/mo subscriptions
“Clearly all of that product stuff's getting ironed out and they're going to have ads in the free version all the way up to a 2000 dollar a month tier or 200 dollar a month tier.”
Coogan: TikTok ban is happening unless Trump overrides it
“There is a law that's passed that should ban TikTok. It's happening unless Trump overrides it.”
Hays: Meta's MSL Will See More Exits Within Two Months
“I don't think this will be the last of the exits that we see out of MSL over the next even one or two months.”
Coogan: A SpaceX IPO is coming around September or October 2026
“So, maybe September, maybe October, but, ah, it's coming.”
Gurman: Apple will report its first $140B quarter in upcoming earnings
“And so they set themselves up for a pretty nice upgrade cycle, and you're gonna see that with their first hundred forty billion dollar quarter. When they report at the end of January, early February.”
Gurman: Apple built an in-house AI search to rival Perplexity
“What they haven't talked about Is AI web search. And so the new Siri is also going to have a chat GPT perplexity competitor for things like deep research and summarizing search. That is going to be an Apple built, an Apple powered system.”
Jeff Yan: Hyperliquid Plans to Launch U.S. Equities Perpetuals By 2026
“There are already some perps on, so there are gold perps tokenized gold and there, I think the answer to when is probably in the next year, because HIP three I think is unlocking a lot of this. So basically letting, it lets anyone kind of come and deploy their…”
Hays: Users will be able to one-shot AI-generate design tools within years
“I would say I have a really strong conviction that in the next few years, you'll be able to one shot a design tool.”
Hays: Meta will pursue AI companionship but avoid romantic companion modes
“I still think they'll take more shots on goal around companionship. Will they go grok waifu mode? No. I don't think they want that revenue line.”
Coogan: Character.ai will be built on third-party APIs
“Character will be built on top of other APIs.”
Hays: Figma IPO first-day close will exceed Adobe acquisition price
“Now Figma is going to IPO. And I would be shocked if they end the first trading day below the price that Adobe was going to pay.”
Future military FPV drones will navigate autonomously and operate without RF links
“I think they'll be more automated. They'll have stabilization systems. You'll be able to select a target and the drone will do its own navigation to intercept that target. They won't rely necessarily on RF communication systems since the jamming environment is…”
Lessin: Fund-to-fund private sales will increase significantly in venture capital
“Private to private transactions are going to happen way more. Right. Like you're going to look just as it happened in private equity, like funds will sell the funds.”
Perret: Late-stage fintech IPOs like Klarna and Chime are coming soon
“You're about to see a couple of IPOs. So corn is coming soon. We think we've heard that China's coming soon and I've heard that a bunch of others are coming soon.”
Valenzuela: Generative video models will soon run in real time
“You're going to get really soon to a point where you can run these models in real time. And so by the time you run them in real time, you're streaming the pixels as you're watching them, interacting with them.”
Automakers will increase consumer incentives as the vehicle market sits 30% oversupplied
“I would say they're roughly like 30% oversupplied. So it's not, you know, these numbers are not low. We're sort of in this phase right now where it's the incentives are only going to keep getting better because the reality is the inventory is out there and it …”
Bartlett: AI-native startups will create hundreds of billions in equity value
“But I still think we'll end up with hundreds of billions of dollars of equity value created for, you know, the derivative companies akin to the, Yeah. To the Ubers and the WhatsApps and whoever else.”
Hays: 2025 LA wildfires expected to exceed $200 billion in damage
“But as of right now, they're projecting that these fires will have cost somewhere in the range of a hundred and fifty billion dollars is the official number. As of now, everybody expects that to tick up over
200 at some point. I believe that Hurricane Katrina …”
Coogan: No AI-produced film will receive an Oscar nomination in 2025
“Not gonna happen in twenty-twenty-five, but probably soon.”
Hays: AP and Swatch collaboration watches will trade far above retail
“I'm sure this swatch AP will end up retailing for Far more, or sorry, not retail, but secondary will be far more than whatever it goes out at.”
Coogan: Robotaxis will definitely have cameras monitoring passengers
“If you get in a robo taxi, there's definitely going to be a camera on you.”
Cosgrove: OpenAI Will Make Additional Deals With the US Government
“Whichever way, like, the anthropic Pentagon stuff, like, evolves, like, I think it's very clear that this is not, like, the last time government deals will be made, right? Like, the OpenAI deal is not the last deal that OpenAI will make with the government.”
Coogan: Data centers will use 500K tons of copper annually soon
“Data centers broadly will be using half a million tons of copper annually in a few years.”
Coogan: Anthropic won't air all four Super Bowl ads due to $80M cost
“Someone ran the numbers, and if they did all, if they aired all four, it would be something like eighty million dollars or something. I don't think that they're gonna run all four.”
Baszucki: Roblox will pay well over $1B to its creators in 2025
“Well over a billion dollars will flow back to Roblox creators this year.”
Gurman: Apple Will Not Remove ChatGPT-Siri Integration
“They're not taking that away. They're not taking it away.”
Cohen: Collectibles will likely account for close to a third of GameStop sales
“We've gone from, like, 10% of our sales to over, close to a third, probably, for the full year is gonna come from collectibles”
Hays: Next Apple Vision Pro will mostly just get faster chip
“The next version coming as soon as this year will mostly just get a faster chip.”
Coogan: Anthropic's next major cluster will run on Amazon
“I believe Anthropic is pretty tightly hitched to Amazon, and I think the next big cluster from Anthropic will be powered by Amazon for the most part”
Coogan: 'Ghost ship' startup acquisitions will become an increasingly common pattern
“I don't think this will be the last go ship we see. I think it's like a new pattern and we're just going to see this more and more.”
Russ d'Sa: AI models will implicitly match user pacing within two years
“Then there's another part of it, which I think will come in the next, you know, year or two where the model will implicitly be intelligent enough to pick up on what your pacing is or your state of mind is just based on the way that you're talking and expressin…”
D'Sa: Voice models will adapt to user pacing within two years
“Then there's another part of it, which I think will come in the next, you know, year or two where the model will implicitly be intelligent enough to pick up on what your pacing is or your state of mind is just based on the way that you're talking and expressin…”