The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,804 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 130 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
DiRico: Rainmaker suspended Texas cloud seeding over two days before floods
“It was over two days prior that Rainmaker had suspended all of its cloud seeding operations in Texas, because one, our forecasters and our meteorologists saw that there was going to be this severe weather event, and we needn't operate to produce more water whe…”
Parekh Denies Subcontracting His Engineering Work to Junior Developers
“I wish I had the money and I wish that was true, but that is not true. Any of the founders that you know I worked with can watch with that. I have multiple locations like pair program with people, you know, I've written every single inch of the court.”
Huberman: GLP-1 proved people become fat because they eat too much
“It also, by the way, shut down the debate as to why people are fat. It's because they eat too much.”
Huberman: NIH grants often fund already-completed research rather than bold science
“Much of the work that's funded by NIH Here's the dirty secret is already completed because they tend to fund things that are very certain to be completed. And so people put forward grants based on work and preliminary data showing I can do this and it's alread…”
Huberman: Hair loss drugs finasteride and dutasteride can cause permanent sexual dysfunction
“There's this whole thing about people taking finasteride and dutasteride men to keep their hair and getting permanent sexual dysfunction, right? Permanent sexual dysfunction. Some of them killing themselves as a consequence of this.”
Huberman: U.S. Academic Science Should Replace PI Labs With Mission-Driven Incubators
“I think the independent investigator model of science in this country, where it's the Huberman lab, or it's the whatever lab named after the PI, I think that's a flawed model. This is gonna really upset some people. There should be labs named after a particula…”
Coogan: Surge AI generated over $1B in 2024, surpassing Scale AI
“The company generated more than one billion dollars in revenue last year. Surge has told employees, a previously reported figure that exceeds The eight hundred and seventy million dollars scale generated in revenue during the same time period.”
Haun: Gensler targeted compliant crypto firms while ignoring complete disasters
“Gary Gensler basically picked what should have been the best companies in crypto, the poster children for compliance, and brought enforcement actions against them, and then the complete spectacular disasters didn't bring anything, so until after the fact.”
Hotz: AI application wrappers like Cursor and Windsurf will fail
“And then on top you have, like, completely worthless things like cursor and windsurf you know, these character AI, all these people who think, oh, we're the app, we're gonna get the ARR. No, that worked in the web, it won't work for AI”
Hotz: AI scaling laws deliver linear returns for exponential capital
“AI scaling laws. You can put in exponentially more money to get linear returns.”
Hotz: Waymo robotaxis require approximately 1.2 remote human operators per car
“There's probably about, I would say there's 1.2 operators per car. But it's not, they don't have a steering wheel and pedals. It is an autonomous system that they're probably doing some higher level inputs on.”
Huberman: Most NIH-funded research is completed before grant approval
“Much of the work that's funded by NIH. Here's the dirty secret is already completed because they tend to fund things that are very certain to be completed. And so people put forward grants based on work and preliminary data showing I can do this. And it's alre…”
Academic science should replace PI labs with mission-focused labs
“I think that the independent investigator model of science in this country, where it's the Huberman lab, or it's the whatever lab named after the PI, I think that's a flawed model. This is gonna really upset some people. There should be labs named after a part…”
Prince: Ukraine possesses the most capable military in Europe
“The most capable military in Europe right now is the Ukrainian military.”
Prince: Ukraine's EW and close air support surpass US military
“Their ability to fight against and to even conduct electronic warfare and even close air support in this environment is is leaps and bounds ahead of even what the US military is.”
Trump: Musk will criticize me personally next
“He hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm sure that'll be next.”
Roy Lee: No Company Ever Dies From Founder Controversy
“There's no company that ever died from a founder being too controversial. You got deal fucking infiltrating with genuine spies. And they're still doing fine, bro. Worker, 17 guys. They're still kicking. Like, no company ever dies from being too controversial. …”
Balaji: DeFi Asset Swaps Will Destroy National Fiat Monopolies
“Cash is universal barter. Cash can be traded for anything, but now anything can be traded for anything, which means there's less need for cash, right? And so all these countries will wake up one day and they'll find, wait a second, just like the newspapers, we…”
Romero: Farcaster Exports US Free Speech and Ignores Foreign Censorship
“Farcaster basically is exporting that as, like, Our social networks policy. So if I get a local jurisdiction somewhere in the world and says, please remove these activists from Farcaster to quote Elon they can shake their fists at the sky.”
Tan: There will be very few successful defense tech companies
“I don't think, I agree more with Dellian comments about that there's not going to be many successful defense companies.”
Tan: San Francisco would still be dying without OpenAI
“Without OpenAI success, SF would be dead and still dying.”
Kovacevich: Federal antitrust agencies targeted Big Tech companies before finding violations
“I think what happened in those cases was like, they had the target in mind and then they worked to find a case they could bring. Right. And so I think that's why, like, you know, these cases have like varying degrees of strength to them because they started wi…”
Sankar: Defense acquisition executive order could prepare US to avoid WWIII
“I think it is the single biggest change that could prepare us to avoid world war three here.”
Asparouhov: Nvidia exported $20B in chips to Singapore resold to China
“The, you know, articles that came out yesterday talking about you know, NVIDIA basically getting, you know, sort of slapped on the wrist because they were like, we're exporting. I forget what the number was, but like, twenty billion dollars per year of chips t…”
Rubio's policies revoked 40 visas for biotech and CS PhDs at Northeastern
“40, 40 visas already. 40 people's lives Fucking ruined. Because Marco Rubio thinks that it's cool to pick fights with biotech and CS PhDs.”
LiveKit CEO: Hallucination is a feature in voice AI interfaces
“Well, you know, it's one of those things that I think is funny, like, people talk about hallucinations as this bad thing but in a lot of ways for, like, kind of this speech-to-speech interaction model where you're talking to an AI, Hallucination is a feature.”
Wischoff: LPs Say 80% of Fund II/III VCs Lack Portfolio Construction Models
“And so they were saying that like, you know, 80% of the meetings they take and these are folks on fund two and fund three, like clearly have never opened up a spreadsheet and like walk through portfolio construction.”
Wischoff: VC partners write small seed checks to minimize personal reputational risk
“They're so active in seed because the individual investors are like, well, hey, if we take thirty million and divide that out by a ton of two, three million dollar checks, if we lose a few, it's not such a blow to the reputation of that, you know, partner at t…”
China's massive new 3D printing factories produce low-quality parts
“China is investing in the three D printing space. They are building, you know, huge factories full of these conventional machines. They don't have our technology. They don't have the ability to, you know, they can go make A hundred laser, whatever number laser…”
Sam Lessin predicts most sub-$50M seed funds will disappear without DPI
“I think what we're going to find is that, you know, a, The market, most of those funds are going away because they don't have that and they're not going to be.”
Sam Lessin: Tesla is worth a fraction of its price on fundamentals
“You know, what does Tesla work from a DCF perspective? We talked about public markets and how you value these things. Not a fraction of what it's traded at, right?”
Lessin: SpaceX's Mars narrative is disingenuous and fundamentally nonsensical
“The Mars narrative is so frustrating because it's so disingenuous on one hand, right? Like, it's just, like, the predictions are out of control. Like, it doesn't make any sense from, like, a fundamentals perspective.”
Soda is the top SNAP item; 60% buys ultra-processed food
“The number one item on food stamps is soda and more than 60% go to ultra processed food.”
Means: Democrats reflexively defend $10B SNAP soda subsidy against Trump
“You've had Democrats passionately arguing that we need to continue to have a ten billion dollar subsidy from the federal government to soda companies on snap just reflexively because, you know, the Trump administration happens to be talking about this.”
Means: Most health startups are wrappers on broken sickness incentives
“A better UX on medical records is putting lipstick on a pig. The problem is the underlying incentives of the system. You know, shipping pills in a millennial pig packaging is an innovation. You know, a lot of healthcare startups are just wrappers on the existi…”
Hausman: End-to-end learning is the only viable path to solve robotics
“There's another reason to do end-to-end learning, which is, this is, I think, the only thing that has a chance of working.”
Hausman: Most future frontier AI models will train on real-world robot data
“So I think over time, it's quite likely that, that the places are gonna switch a little bit, where most of the models, including, you know, LLMs and BLMs, are gonna be using real-world data collected through robots, because that's the data that has no ceiling,…”
Groom: Waymo is far better than Tesla despite having fewer cars
“Tesla has this, Incredible advantage with how much data they're collecting and passively, yet Waymo is so much better so far, and it has so many fewer cars on the roads.”
Asparouhov: NASA should reallocate SLS budget to commercial rocket companies
“The commercial industry has better, cheaper,
You know, more effective rockets than, you know, anything that NASA is building and has at this point, we should probably reallocate that budget to just those commercial companies or to other NASA priorities rather…”
Asparouhov: Medicare efficiency offers far more savings than cutting DEI programs
“Entitlements are the vast majority of the federal government's budget, and so, you know, if you want to go look at efficiencies, you're gonna have way more juice to squeeze, like, you know, improving Medicare than, like, you know, you can cut out all the DEI p…”
Ginn: DC policymakers view Jensen Huang as exporting weapons of mass destruction
“People in DC literally view that Jensen is selling weapons of mass destruction to other countries. Yeah, that's why they use the word diffusion, proliferation, right? Those are nuclear weapons words.”
Ginn: China is under 12 months behind the US on chip advancement
“The actual modes around the information asymmetry that we have as a nation towards China on the advancement of chips is much smaller than we think. And I think it's, like, under 12 months.”
Ginn: Building GPUs is easier than the US government thinks
“Building GPUs is actually much easier than the US government thinks, which is why it, which is why Amazon's doing it, Microsoft's doing it, Facebook's doing it, Broadcom's now a trillion dollar company, and the second is that their actual ability on the Foundr…”
Ginn: Subsidize Intel and TSMC foundries instead of imposing tariffs
“We need to reshore semis, but I think the way you reshore semis is not randomly tariffing stuff and then providing exemptions when you have a lobbyist that is convincing enough to go to the White House. I thought we were supposed to be opposed to that, but I g…”
Ginn: China Is Winning AI Because It Embraced Open Source
“We won the internet because we were free and open. China's winning AI because it's free and open. Not because they care about that.”
Srinivas: Breaking up Google harms America and will not increase competition
“I don't think Google should be broken up for two main reasons. One is, it's not even in the interest of America for Google to be broken up. And number two is, it doesn't actually increase competition. It's just gonna, like transfer from one monopoly to another…”
Srinivas: Google Gemini is a horrible product despite a great model
“The assistant that they have, Gemini, is actually pretty horrible, and the model is great, But the product is not.”
Kilpatrick: Pre-Training Isn't Dead; Gains Multiply Through Post-Training and RL
“And this is why, like, I don't subscribe to the, like pre-training is, you know, dead and all that stuff, because the more work that you can do at the pre-training level, those capabilities, as you do post-training and as you give the models RL capability, it'…”