The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 162 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: IMO Rules Require AI Models to Be Open Source for Official Medals
“They don't, they put the questions out and anyone can go and try and do them, but to actually be awarded a goal for an AI, they said it has to be an open source model.”
Coogan: Shopify Report Shows AI Solopreneurs Launch 70% Faster
“A 20, 24 Shopify report showed AI enabled solopreneurs launched businesses 70% faster than peers without a tool, without AI tools.”
Shkreli: 85% to 90% of top 15-20 hedge funds are quants
“Today of the top 15 to 20 hedge funds, 85, 90% are quants.”
Shkreli: Citadel figured out faster matrix multiplication than Nvidia on V100s
“So in the V 100 days, Citadel found a way to do mat moles faster than NVIDIA did. And it was like the most incredible, you know, find ever.”
FDA import restrictions on overseas manufacturing bankrupted early e-cigarette maker NJOY
“The FDA is able to put an import restriction on the company, so they're making the product, I believe, in China, probably overseas somewhere, because it's electronics, it's equipment. They bring it in at the ports, and the FDA says, hey, while we sort out this…”
Huberman: NIH funds most US basic research and clinical trials
“Most of the basic research and clinical trials that are run in the United States are funded by the NIH.”
Most Nobel Prizes in medicine stem from NIH-funded work
“The majority of Nobel prizes has in physiology and medicine and chemistry and related fields have come from work that was either initially seeded by, or certainly supported by the NIH.”
US Cyclone Insurance Premiums Reached $140B, Doubling Annually in Coastal Cities
“Like there's about like a hundred forty billion dollars per year in insurance premiums issued in the U S for like tropical cyclones. And yet like insurance premiums have doubled every single year for the last, you know, four or five years in many coastal citie…”
Langtry: NRC mandates incident report for 10 unaccounted curies of tritium
“The NRC has this rule that if you can't account for 10 curies of tritium in your system, You have, like, 30 days to report it as an incident to the NRC that you've, like, lost 10 curies of tritium.”
Dhillon: Roughly 85% of Critical Data Breaches Stem from Social Engineering
“But I guess my claim is that, like you know it's something like 85% of critical data breaches happen because of social engineering attacks.”
Hammond: Mortgage debt has returned to 2007 peak levels
“Mortgage debt is now back to his 2007 levels.”
Ramade: Electrical engineering enrollments dropped 90% over 50 years as CS surged
“The last 50 years, if you look at computer science course enrollments, they're up by 90%. None of us are surprised by it. But electrical engineering course enrollments are down by the same amount.”
Kirsten Green notes over 60% of surveyed consumers use AI regularly
“It's like 60 or 60 plus of the people percent were like actually had said they were using AI regularly.”
Doricko: California water strategy requires 500k farmland acres fallowed by 2030
“The California State Water Supply Strategy, like, from the Department of Natural Resources, says that half a million acres of farmland have to turn into desert by 2030 in California. In order to like maintain water supply for the cities.”
Doricko: 14 million acres of Florida farmland are currently in drought
“Well, fourteen million acres of farmland in Florida is currently in a drought.”
Steinman: A cyberattack destroyed the Iranian steel industry in one day
“So I think two, three years ago someone, I don't know who literally destroyed the Iranian steel industry in like one day.”
Asparouhov: Falcon 9 had more issues recently than in prior five years
“Falcon nine has also had more issues over the past years or six months than like the prior, like five years combined.”
Carter: CoreWeave built AI-specific synchronous HPC clusters before any hyperscaler
“It really is you know, they built with the idea of HPC big performant synchronous HPC clusters in mind when absolutely no one was doing that. None of the hyperscalers were doing that. And then now, of course, everybody's realized AI specific data centers make …”
Humane's AI Pin Received Approximately 7,000 Total Pre-Orders
“I think the Humane Pin, even at their price point, got, like, 7000 pre-orders.”
Jordy: Roblox stock dropped 30% following usage decline and short-seller report
“Roblox, which that, that what's that research Hindenburg research had done a takedown on, they reported a drop in, in sort of usage and like, 30% of the stock got wiped out.”
Coogan: Musical.ly used iTunes preview API to avoid music licensing fees
“There's an API on the iPhone for the iTunes store where you can pull in music previews and you don't have to pay any licensing fees for those because they're just 15 second clips. And so you could have access to the entire iTunes music library, every single so…”
Coogan: MP3.com went public for $100M with no software written
“I mean, I think we've talked about mpthree.com. They went public with just the domain and the business plan. No software written. A hundred million dollars.”
Hays: The X algorithm favors screenshots over quote tweets
“Because right now the algorithm actually much prefers a screenshot like that than a quote tweet.”
Hays: Caruso owns the only contiguous buildings surviving in Pacific Palisades
“He has the only structures, basically, in the Palisades that are touching each other that are still standing, so if that's not proof that he's competent, I don't know what is”
Coogan: Ginkgo Bioworks went through YC at ~200M valuation
“Giggo Bioworks went through at like, two hundred million valuation.”
Coogan: Only One Tin Smelting Plant Remains in the US
“There's only, I think there's only one tin smelting plant in the United States anymore.”
Coogan: OpenAI o1 is built on the GPT-4 foundation model
“The foundation model, yeah, it's still running GPT-IV, but obviously there's a lot of there's a lot of training to have that happens on top and a lot of UI stuff.”
Hays: Truth Social generated only about $1M in revenue last year
“Truth Social, while they have a fantastic valuation, they only did about a million in revenue last year.”
Major Banks Offer 60% Valuation Buyouts for Government Appointees' Illiquid Shares
“I did hear a incredible financial innovation. I think it's from JP Morgan or Goldman is one of those two. They offer a service where if you're taking a government post and you need to divest assets, they will basically buy it at like 60% of like the last mark.”
Coogan: Canada has not approved semaglutide for weight loss
“America does have a huge advantage here. Like Canada hasn't even approved it. Like we really are on the forefront.”
Coogan: Perplexity is making more money than MP3.com ever did
“And it's interesting because, I mean, Perplexity is 100% making more money than mp-three.com ever did.”
Coogan: Wealthy Americans traveled abroad for GLP-1 drugs before US availability
“The, like, GLP-I's were, like, widely available for, like, five years before they came to America, and a lot of rich people were going abroad to get them.”
Hays: YouTube viewership is now predominantly on TV screens
“YouTube viewership is now, I think, predominantly on the TV.”
Hays: Roughly 95% of Europe's top 100 firms were founded over a century ago
“Yeah, the craziest one who we could overlay this is, like, out of Europe's, like, top 100 firms, like, all of them, or 95% of them, were created over a hundred years ago.”
Coogan: Johor to match Northern Virginia data center capacity within years
“They're like a couple years away from having the same amount of Energy capacity as Northern Virginia, where like all the major AWS hubs are.”
Coogan: Bending Spoons Added $11B Market Cap Post-Airtable Acquisition
“Benning Spoon's added eleven billion in market cap after announcing the Airtable acquisition.”
Reviewer: Ferrari 12Cilindri Manuale launches early 2027 at ~$500,000
“The Manuale goes on sale at the beginning of next year, at the beginning of 2027. The price will be right around half a million dollars for starters.”
Creator: Peter Thiel played over 50,000 games on Chess.com
“I don't know if anybody knows about this, but Peter Thiel has a chess.com account with his real name, under which he's played over 50,000 games over the past 10 years.”
Eddy Cue: Apple Sold $1M of iMacs on Online Store Launch Day
“And we had sold a million dollars worth of IMAX and we were high fiving each other and going, this is amazing.”
Kim: Hyperscalers are locking in three-to-five-year CPU supply contracts
“We have Dell, AMD Intel CFO talked about, they're talking about three to five year locked, locked in supply contracts from hyperscalers.”
Hays: Bolt built proprietary payment rails instead of using Stripe
“Fast checkout provider to be running on Stripe, Bolt was famously not, they had built their own payment rails.”
Schlicht: Millions of people are already visiting the Moltbook website
“You know, there's millions of people coming to the website.”
Playback will integrate AI voice commentary overlays for fans
“Playback they're also going to integrate you know, AI into that flow as well, like a voice based commentator or whatever that can watch the game and, Provide an overlay for fans”
Coogan: Ex-Microsoft CTO Nathan Myhrvold owns the world's most T-Rex skeletons
“Nathan Mervold at Microsoft, he owns more T-Rex's than anyone in the world. He owns the T-Rex skeletons.”