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Koki Mochida

Co-Founder & CEO, Aeolus Labs · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderexecutivescientist@koki_mashita ↗LinkedIn ↗aeolus.earth ↗

Koki Mashita is the co-founder and CEO of Aeolus Labs, a startup developing AI-driven atmospheric modeling to forecast and mitigate catastrophic tropical cyclones. A former AI researcher at the Berkeley RISE Lab, he received a Thiel Fellowship in 2025.

7statements → 7claims → 5claims resolved → 40%fully supported → 3.86/5average certainty → 2.29/5average debate potential →

2 supported 2 partly supported 1 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 7 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 predictions · 5 assertions · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 7 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 5 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Koki argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
One Hurricane Holds Enough Energy to Power the US for Months
“And if you can, you know, harness it properly, you can power the United States for months and months just from one hurricane.”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:11:56 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
US Cyclone Insurance Premiums Reached $140B, Doubling Annually in Coastal Cities
“Like there's about like a hundred forty billion dollars per year in insurance premiums issued in the U S for like tropical cyclones. And yet like insurance premiums have doubled every single year for the last, you know, four or five years in many coastal citie…”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:17:00 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
100% certainty 3
50% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Koki Mochida on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Koki Mochida said on TBPN that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mochida: A Katrina-Level Storm in Florida Will Bankrupt Property Insurers
“But when the next Hurricane Katrina happens in, you know, Florida, for example, then insurance is just going to be insolvent in many ways.”
Koki Mochida May 31, 2025 ▶ 2:44:44 Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fellows
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A Katrina-Scale Hurricane Hitting Florida Will Trigger Mass Insurer Insolvency
“But when a next Hurricane Katrina happens in, you know, Florida, for example, then insurance is just going to be insolvent in many ways.”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:17:27 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts
Assertion Partly supported
Mochida: ML Weather Models Cut Costs 99% and Increase Resolution 100x
“With machine learning, what you're able to do is reduce costs by 99% and increase resolution by a hundred times.”
Koki Mochida May 31, 2025 ▶ 2:37:48 Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fellows
Assertion Partly supported
Machine Learning Cuts Weather Compute Costs 99% and Boosts Resolution 100x
“With machine learning, what you're able to do is reduce costs by 99% and increase resolution by a hundred times.”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:10:31 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts
Assertion Supported
One Hurricane Holds Enough Energy to Power the US for Months
“And if you can, you know, harness it properly, you can power the United States for months and months just from one hurricane.”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:11:56 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts
Assertion Supported
Mochida: Energy in One Hurricane Could Power US for Months
“And if you can, you know, harness it properly, you can power the United States for months and months just from one hurricane.”
Koki Mochida May 31, 2025 ▶ 2:39:13 Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fellows
Assertion Contradicted
US Cyclone Insurance Premiums Reached $140B, Doubling Annually in Coastal Cities
“Like there's about like a hundred forty billion dollars per year in insurance premiums issued in the U S for like tropical cyclones. And yet like insurance premiums have doubled every single year for the last, you know, four or five years in many coastal citie…”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:17:00 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts

Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fell May 31, 2025 7m
We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts May 28, 2025 7m
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