The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,166 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 130 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Salesforce Research invented AI prompt engineering, claims Marc Benioff
“We invented prompt engineering, the first prompt right here at Salesforce Research, commercialized by others, of course.”
Benioff claims Salesforce sold cybersecurity company Wiz to Google
“You know, we just sold a company to Google, which is Wiz, the security company.”
Dr. Drew: Microdosing and ayahuasca categorically cause severe psychiatric problems
“The AI world is populated by people that microdose on acid and do ayahuasca, which I tell you, it categorically causes severe psychiatric problems. I've seen it my entire career.”
Dr. Drew: Legacy late-night TV hosts will all face cancellation
“So when Colbert gets Gets fired for losing forty million dollars a year. I just looked at that and I go, well, of course. That's gonna happen to all of them. This is just not a model.”
Cuban: AI is merely statistical and will not become smart for a long time
“Particularly because AI is not smart. Right. AI is just statistical right now. And I'm of the mindset that that's not going to change for a long time.”
Coogan: METR Study Found AI Coding Tools Made Developers 19% Slower
“The meter team did these evaluations where they ran a randomized control trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up open source developers, and what they found was that developers said that they expected products like cursor and windsurf to improve them by…”
Shkreli: Mike Bloomberg could be worth $400B-$500B via private equity
“He's taken the Bloomberg dividends and pumped it into a family office that basically Carlisle and all these guys, you know, the Warburg Pincus, all the private equity guys like KKR, They go to him first, and he tosses in, like, five hundred million in each of …”
DiRico: Rainmaker suspended Texas cloud seeding over two days before floods
“It was over two days prior that Rainmaker had suspended all of its cloud seeding operations in Texas, because one, our forecasters and our meteorologists saw that there was going to be this severe weather event, and we needn't operate to produce more water whe…”
Parekh Denies Subcontracting His Engineering Work to Junior Developers
“I wish I had the money and I wish that was true, but that is not true. Any of the founders that you know I worked with can watch with that. I have multiple locations like pair program with people, you know, I've written every single inch of the court.”
Huberman: NIH grants often fund already-completed research rather than bold science
“Much of the work that's funded by NIH Here's the dirty secret is already completed because they tend to fund things that are very certain to be completed. And so people put forward grants based on work and preliminary data showing I can do this and it's alread…”
Huberman: Hair loss drugs finasteride and dutasteride can cause permanent sexual dysfunction
“There's this whole thing about people taking finasteride and dutasteride men to keep their hair and getting permanent sexual dysfunction, right? Permanent sexual dysfunction. Some of them killing themselves as a consequence of this.”
Coogan: Surge AI generated over $1B in 2024, surpassing Scale AI
“The company generated more than one billion dollars in revenue last year. Surge has told employees, a previously reported figure that exceeds The eight hundred and seventy million dollars scale generated in revenue during the same time period.”
Hotz: AI application wrappers like Cursor and Windsurf will fail
“And then on top you have, like, completely worthless things like cursor and windsurf you know, these character AI, all these people who think, oh, we're the app, we're gonna get the ARR. No, that worked in the web, it won't work for AI”
Hotz: Waymo robotaxis require approximately 1.2 remote human operators per car
“There's probably about, I would say there's 1.2 operators per car. But it's not, they don't have a steering wheel and pedals. It is an autonomous system that they're probably doing some higher level inputs on.”
Huberman: Most NIH-funded research is completed before grant approval
“Much of the work that's funded by NIH. Here's the dirty secret is already completed because they tend to fund things that are very certain to be completed. And so people put forward grants based on work and preliminary data showing I can do this. And it's alre…”
Trump: Musk will criticize me personally next
“He hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm sure that'll be next.”
Balaji: DeFi Asset Swaps Will Destroy National Fiat Monopolies
“Cash is universal barter. Cash can be traded for anything, but now anything can be traded for anything, which means there's less need for cash, right? And so all these countries will wake up one day and they'll find, wait a second, just like the newspapers, we…”
Tan: There will be very few successful defense tech companies
“I don't think, I agree more with Dellian comments about that there's not going to be many successful defense companies.”
Asparouhov: Nvidia exported $20B in chips to Singapore resold to China
“The, you know, articles that came out yesterday talking about you know, NVIDIA basically getting, you know, sort of slapped on the wrist because they were like, we're exporting. I forget what the number was, but like, twenty billion dollars per year of chips t…”
Rubio's policies revoked 40 visas for biotech and CS PhDs at Northeastern
“40, 40 visas already. 40 people's lives Fucking ruined. Because Marco Rubio thinks that it's cool to pick fights with biotech and CS PhDs.”
Wischoff: LPs Say 80% of Fund II/III VCs Lack Portfolio Construction Models
“And so they were saying that like, you know, 80% of the meetings they take and these are folks on fund two and fund three, like clearly have never opened up a spreadsheet and like walk through portfolio construction.”
Sam Lessin predicts most sub-$50M seed funds will disappear without DPI
“I think what we're going to find is that, you know, a, The market, most of those funds are going away because they don't have that and they're not going to be.”
Soda is the top SNAP item; 60% buys ultra-processed food
“The number one item on food stamps is soda and more than 60% go to ultra processed food.”
Means: Democrats reflexively defend $10B SNAP soda subsidy against Trump
“You've had Democrats passionately arguing that we need to continue to have a ten billion dollar subsidy from the federal government to soda companies on snap just reflexively because, you know, the Trump administration happens to be talking about this.”
Hausman: Most future frontier AI models will train on real-world robot data
“So I think over time, it's quite likely that, that the places are gonna switch a little bit, where most of the models, including, you know, LLMs and BLMs, are gonna be using real-world data collected through robots, because that's the data that has no ceiling,…”
Hammond: AI will deflate US knowledge work while China automates manufacturing
“The last 40 years we've specialized in, you know, higher education, knowledge work, legal management services, Hollywood, you know, the creative class, all this stuff that is going to like be deflated and China will have the factories that will become fully au…”
Arnott: A water-based conflict with China in the Asia-Pacific is coming
“So the Asia Pacific fight with China, clearly that's a water-based conflict that's coming.”
Hudson: Viral video allegations against Honey were essentially falsified
“Almost every version of that was essentially falsified. Like he'd say one thing and then the screen would show something completely different and non-incriminating.”
Knoop: Scaling Test-Time Compute Will Not Get Us to AGI
“And then there's a new story that's emerged over the last like five months, which is, oh, we're going to scale up this test time compute and that's going to get us to AGI. And I think what V two shows is that that's not quite either. We still need some structu…”
Handmer: Musk's Government Efficiency Work Will Be a Massive US Net Positive
“I think ultimately, I think history will show this is going to be a massive net positive for United States. You know, obviously there's going to be some mistakes and some struggles and pain along the way.”
Patel: Humanity Has an 80% to 90% Chance of Surviving AI
“In the 80% of worlds or 90% of worlds where we don't get paper clipped you will get to say you worked on something really cool at a time that was really important in the history of humanity.”
Power: The US no longer manufactures CNC machines domestically
“And we no longer make CNC machines in the US.”
Rauch: Cloudbleed leaked Uber auth tokens onto Google search
“You could, I don't know if the audience knows, but you could Google and literally find auth tokens of different companies like Uber indexed by Google.”
Masad: Vertical niche SaaS tools will be easily AI-generated within a year
“So there's a lot of, I think, vertical, niche-specific SaaS tools that are generatable very easily, even with today's technology, let alone like a year from now, I think you'll be able to kind of generate them, especially on a platform like Replit, which gives…”
Frank: Apple launched iOS 14 privacy changes because Facebook refused revenue-sharing
“And that was the whole iOS, 14 breakdown, right? Is that Apple wanted to, they wanted revenue from Facebook in exchange for that data. And Facebook said, no, so they shut it down.”
NASA Originally Planned to Award Commercial Crew Exclusively to Boeing
“When commercial crew was originally getting started, the original plan by NASA was to only, you know, do it as a sole source of war, just a Boeing. SpaceX was seen as a bunch of, you know, cowboys who has that had no chance of actually being able to be trusted…”
Wilmore and Williams Confirmed They Were Denied Earlier ISS Return
“Butch and Sunni, like, basically confirmed these facts. Like, they basically made it clear, hey, we could have been brought back earlier, and we were, like, denied the opportunity to be brought back earlier.”
Lessin: AI will enrich Big Tech platforms but burn startup investors
“AI is going to make the big, big, big platforms a shit ton of money. And it's going to be really good for small businesses, but it is a terrible place to hunt for startups, right? It's a great way to lose a lot of money on startups.”
Lessin: Startups exploiting incumbent execution errors will be copied, not acquired
“Like they're not going to get acquired. They're just going to get copied.”
Lessin: AI leverage will create one-person billion-dollar companies
“I totally buy the thesis that you're going to see individuals that have a lot of trust and brand and community and deeply understand a niche. Do things you haven't seen before. Like, I buy the one person billion dollar company thing. Like, I think that's real …”
Lessin: Tome cannot compete and outbound sales industry will collapse
“No way can Tom compete on this, but I'll go even a step further, which is this entire industry of outbound goes away.”
Steinman: CCP intelligence officials likely access DJI's US topography data
“Like if you don't think that senior CCP Intel officials have the ability to just walk into DJI headquarters and be like, give me everything you know about the topography of the United States. Like, you're smoking crack. They probably have access to it right no…”
Lessin: OpenAI is trapped in the middle and will lose
“Candidly, even companies like open AI, or should we say nonprofits like open AI, the problem is they're kind of in the middle, you know, they can't compete. With the hyperscalers from just access to capital perspective. If this is a capital game, they're going…”
Will Manidis: Legacy healthcare companies will win the AI wave over startups
“Legacy healthcare companies are actually going to be the winners during this wave.”
Maguire: Starlink's 10x cost advantage will replace subsea fiber optics
“Almost all long-range data movements in the future is gonna be done via Starlink, in my opinion. I think Starlink has, like, a 10 X plus cost advantage per gigabyte for long-haul data transmission compared to, say, putting a fiber optic cable line under the oc…”
Maguire: Mars colonization spinoffs will be history's most profitable endeavor
“I am now at the point where I actually, I really believe that Mars is going to Be like one of the biggest profit generating endeavors in history, and not necessarily, not like from the direct Like building a city on Mars, but from all the indirect things”