why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Hays: SpaceX and xAI in merger talks ahead of planned IPO
“So, they're in discussions ahead of a blockbuster IPO planned for later this year. The combination would bring Musk's rockets, Starlink satellites, and X social media platform, and the Grok AI chatbot under one roof.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Maguire: Starlink's 10x cost advantage will replace subsea fiber optics
“Almost all long-range data movements in the future is gonna be done via Starlink, in my opinion. I think Starlink has, like, a 10 X plus cost advantage per gigabyte for long-haul data transmission compared to, say, putting a fiber optic cable line under the oc…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Asparouhov: Starlink Revenue Will Pass NASA's Budget Within Two Years
“Starlink's total top line revenue is going to be passing the NASA budget in the next year or two.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Starlink accounts for 50% to 80% of SpaceX's total revenue
“Starlink is the main revenue driver accounting for about 50 to 80% of the total revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: A Russian LEO nuclear detonation would destroy commercial space economics
“The thing that would be really bad is if like Russia basically, you know, nuked low earth orbit, you know, detonated through nuclear weapon. And you had a bunch of like highly charged ion particles, you know, basically orbiting around earth at a much lower lev…”
What-if
Hays: Meta's metaverse budget could have launched a Starlink competitor
“Meta could have probably almost launched a Starlink competitor with how much they spent on the metaverse.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: SpaceX operates 9,500 satellites serving over 9M Starlink users
“The rapid launch of 9500 Starlink satellites since 2019 has made SpaceX the world's largest satellite operator with only not over nine million users of the broadband internet service”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Starlink has over 10,000 satellites in orbit
“Starlink has over 10,000 up there already, I believe.”
Assertion Supported
Dixon: SpaceX uses stablecoins for cross-border treasury management on Starlink sales
“SpaceX has a program where they move, you know, they'll sell a Starlink in, I think it's like some, south of like Brazil or something, and then they'll immediately, you know, use stablecoins for so-called treasury management.”
Assertion Supported
Asparouhov: China lacks commercial space revenue comparable to Starlink
“They have nothing equivalent to like Starlink generating billions of dollars, you know, of commercial, you know, sort of revenues that you can use as infrastructure to build off of.”
Insight
Gedmark: Telecoms demand dedicated, SLA-backed satellite capacity over shared networks
“What they are really looking for is dedicated capacity. That is set aside for their exclusive use. And it's on these what we call SLA service level agreements. You know, guaranteed uptimes where they, and they know it's there, whether they are using it or not.…”
Assertion Supported
Holland: Starlink is gaining private jet market share faster than rivals
“Starlink is gobbling up market share, but as a percentage of the overall fleet installation base, it's still pretty small. I don't know exactly off the top of my head what the, what kind of the percentage penetration is, but it's growing faster than any of the…”
Insight
Coogan: Every founder and CEO should buy a Starlink for travel
“I do think that every founder, CEO should buy a Starlink and have it, because you cannot afford to not have good internet whenever you're traveling. Like, you're gonna be in some weird place, the internet's not gonna be good, you're gonna miss calls, and the c…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Starlink's manufacturing innovations will become universally adopted standard
“There's probably something in here that's a new way of thinking about how to mass manufacture that Will eventually be canonized and used everywhere and copy-pasted and that, that will be like the future of manufacturing and it will all be new.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: SpaceX leveraged excess launch capacity to create Starlink
“SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for, but then Because there was space on every SpaceX rocket, and they were able to build them so, so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of internet con…”
Assertion Supported
Starlink Deployed Over 650 Direct-to-Cell Satellites to Connect 12 Million Users
“Starlink has deployed more than 650 satellites dedicated to providing connections to cell phones as of the end of last year, connecting more than twelve million people, according to the company.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Starlink has over 9,000 satellites and 9 million customers
“Starlink has more than 9000 satellites in orbit and roughly nine million customers.”
Assertion Supported
Holland: Starlink equipment installation costs $150k to $350k per jet
“It's anywhere from 150 to 350,000 dollars to install the equipment.”
Assertion Supported
Holland: Starlink charges $10k/month for aircraft flying over 300 mph
“So if you go under 300 miles an hour, it's like 200 bucks a month, and if you go over that, it's like 10,000 a month, so it's pretty significantly different.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Elon Musk Distributes Starlink Units in Disaster Areas
“Elon's giving out a bunch to people that are in affected disaster areas and hopefully keeping people Online and communicating.”