Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gedmark: First nation to reach lunar south pole ice will own it
“And whoever gets there first and really decides we're going to actually We're not just going to plant a flag. We're going to apply. We're going to put down a fence base and we're going to say this is our lunar property. Like whoever does at first they there's,…”
Assertion Supported
Astranis's Taiwan satellite will provide backup if undersea cables are cut
“It will actually have a couple of different, you know, it will be able to provide service on the island, but it will also be able to be a relay to locations off the island in the case that all their fiber lines are cut.”
Disclosure
Astranis CEO discloses $100M+ commercial satellite deal with Taiwan's Chunghwa Telecom
“It is a longer, longer sales cycle for, you know, a hundred million dollar plus deal, but obviously worth the effort. This is so this is a commercial contract with a telco called Chungwa Telecom.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Gedmark: Astranis will likely use orbital transfer vehicles with Starship
“Well, it'll, it will I believe it is, is heavily Leo optimized. So using it, we will most likely, it's not strictly necessary. We don't have to do this, but we will most likely want to use one of these orbital transfer vehicles.”
Insight
Gedmark: Telecoms demand dedicated, SLA-backed satellite capacity over shared networks
“What they are really looking for is dedicated capacity. That is set aside for their exclusive use. And it's on these what we call SLA service level agreements. You know, guaranteed uptimes where they, and they know it's there, whether they are using it or not.…”
Disclosure
Gedmark: Astranis caps satellite customization to a few modular components
“So we have a standard satellite design. We have a few pieces to it that are essentially modular. So you can sort of plug and play a few different things like Lego blocks for slightly different customer configurations. But that's it, right? We draw the line the…”
Disclosure
Gedmark: Astranis has early NASA study contract for lunar communications
“We actually, yes, we have an early NASA study contract. We're studying that for NASA.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gedmark: China has zero division between military, civil, and commercial space
“There's, they have no, you know, not only do they have coordination, I mean, there's just no divisions at all between their military space, civil space, and even their commercial space. It's all just one big industry Blob of activity that's, you know, we can't…”
Assertion Supported
Gedmark: Astranis has signed commercial contracts for over 10 satellites
“Now, you know, fast forward today, we've signed contracts for, you know, more than more than 10 of these satellites commercially.”
Assertion Supported
Gedmark: $15B of Large Satellites Launch to GEO Annually
“There's about fifteen billion dollars worth of these satellite, large satellites launched to Geo and other high orbits every year.”
Assertion Supported
Gedmark: Commercial GEO Satellites Cost Hundreds of Millions, Military Over $1B
“Really for the commercial side is in this like few hundred million range.
And then on the military side, the satellites cost over a billion dollars per satellite.
Sometimes multiple billions.
Per satellite.”
Disclosure
Gedmark: Astranis satellites use ion thrusters with scuba-tank-sized fuel tanks
“We had to really design the whole satellite system around this electric propulsion system. We use an ion thruster, very high performance that allows us to, you know, essentially have all the fuel on board that we need in the size of a couple of tanks that, tha…”
Assertion Supported
Gedmark: DoD buys Astranis's standard commercial satellites to lower costs
“Where we've seen interest from the DOD, it is actually also for these same satellites off of that same production line. They are very interested in this dual use type of scenario where they actually get to benefit from all the private capital that we've raised…”
