The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 108 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brockman: OpenAI Model Solved Navier-Stokes Millennium Problem by Finding Singularity
“Today we announced that our model had solved the Navier-Stokes problem that we found a counter-example or a sort of proof that you can actually that these theoretical equations do have a singularity or kind of breakdown under
Certain circumstances.”
OpenAI Agents Built Internal Message Board to Escape Sandbox
“OpenAI member of technical staff, Michael Dalton, revealed That its autonomous agents created a message board with each other to help break out of a sandbox environment to get access to the internet.”
Escaped OpenAI model hacked Hugging Face seeking benchmark test answers
“So the models found a zero day vulnerability, gained internet access and broke into hugging face because the model believed It hosted answers to the test.”
OpenAI acquires tech talk show TBPN
“OpenAI acquires TBPN, accelerating the global conversation about AI.”
Coogan: OpenAI offers PE firms a 17.5% minimum return
“OpenAI is offering private equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, as well as early access to models not yet in public release.”
Coogan: Analysts predict OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs within next year
“Some analysis, some analysts who study the AI industry say the two companies which are preparing for public listings in the next year, they just want to eliminate the competition.”
Apple Filings Claim OpenAI Poached Over 400 Apple Employees
“Apple's filings also spends quite a few words on the fact that OpenAI has poached more than 400 employees from the company in recent years.”
Elon Musk and Ari Emanuel submitted a bid to buy OpenAI
“Musk made a bid with Ari Emanuel and some other companies. That's right, to buy the whole company.”
Isaac: Burchall Testified Musk's OpenAI Bid Aimed to Establish Valuation
“Burchall in court was saying this was us trying to sort of establish a pricing mechanism to like value the actual entity itself”
Coogan: Anthropic Clashed over Surveillance and Lethal Weapons Clauses Permitted to OpenAI
“So there were two main sticking points that they went back and forth on. No mass domestic surveillance, and no fully autonomous lethal weapons, and there's been a question as to why OpenAI was allowed to Include that language in their contract and say, like, h…”
Hays: OpenAI officially rolled out ads in ChatGPT today
“Apparently OpenAI actually rolled out ads in ChatGPT today.”
Huang: Nvidia never promised $100B in one OpenAI round
“No, we never said we were going to invest a hundred billion dollars in one round. That never was said.”
OpenAI Chair Bret Taylor admits AI is 'probably a bubble'
“Opening eye chair, Brad Taylor, says AI is quote, probably a bubble, expects a corruption in the coming years.”
Musk Legal Team Seeks $134B in Damages from OpenAI
“It's gonna be a hundred and thirty four billion dollars in damages is what Elon is seeking. Musk's legal team argues that his early funding and involvement materially contributed to OpenAI's rise, which is now valued at five hundred billion, and he wants a sli…”
Hays: OpenAI urges White House to invest in Stargate supercomputing initiative
“In a letter to the White House sent this AM, this was yesterday, OpenAI encourages the federal government, government to invest in or contract with initiatives like OpenAI's Stargate to secure compute for public research.”
Coogan: Disney is investing $1 billion in OpenAI and licensing IP to Sora
“Disney, which is investing one billion dollars in OpenAI and is going to license their characters for use in Sora.”
Hays: Disney accuses Google of massive copyright infringement with AI models
“As Disney has gone into business with OpenAI, the Mouse House is accusing Google of copyright infringement on massive scale, using AI models and services to commercially exploit and distribute infringing images and videos.”
Hays: ChatGPT daily active users fell 6% following Google Gemini launch
“In the two weeks since the Gemini launched, ChatGPT unique daily active users, a seven-day average, are down six percent.”
Tyler Hogge predicts the US government will provide AI loan backstops
“But a backstop of loans, I would expect that to happen.”
Coogan: OpenAI Recalibrates Compensation to Fight Meta Poaching While Balancing Fairness
“Chen promised that he was working with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and other leaders of the company around the clock to talk to those with offers, adding, we've been more proactive than ever before. We're recalibrating comp and we're scooping out creative wa…”
Prince: Anthropic is 30,000x and OpenAI 750x harder than Google for traffic
“As you looked at open AI, it was about 750 times harder than with the kind of Google of old to get traffic with something like anthropic is 30,000 times harder.”
Coogan: OpenAI secured a $200 million contract with the US DoD
“They scored a two hundred million dollar US defense contract. So they're working with the DOD.”
Coogan: Stargate $500B figure represents total cost of ownership not upfront capex
“We believe this project is being measured on the total cost of ownership, not capital expenditures, i.e. The one hundred billion and the five hundred billion is TCO, which includes the capital expenditures for data centers, servers, Networking costs, power cos…”
Coogan: OpenAI will introduce free-tier ads and up to $2,000/mo subscriptions
“Clearly all of that product stuff's getting ironed out and they're going to have ads in the free version all the way up to a 2000 dollar a month tier or 200 dollar a month tier.”
Brockman: OpenAI surpasses one billion weekly active users
“We're now well over a billion users every week”
Coogan: GPT-6 Astra achieves 99.9% on ARC-AGI-3 benchmark
“The RKGI three number is crazy. The score is 99.9%, so it feels like they just beat that. They just beat RKGI B three.”
OpenAI Slows Research and Reallocates Teams Following Agent Escapes
“Dalton, the OpenAI employee said the incidents marked a pivotal moment For the company and the industry as a whole, he said that numerous internal teams have dropped everything to dramatically expand OpenAI's ability to monitor its agents, and that the company…”
Leaked Microsoft memo makes OpenAI GPT the default internal AI model
“A Microsoft exec Just sent an internal memo that's designed to end token maxing and makes OpenAI's GPT, GPT, the default model for internal use.”
Coogan: Employees from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Signed AI Pause Letter
“There's this open letter from a bunch of lab employees saying like, hey, maybe we should do a mutual pause. Maybe we should all slow down. And I think even some meta researchers signed that as well, but there's like a wide group from OpenAI, Anthropic, a bunch…”
OpenAI breaks ground on 1-gigawatt Stargate Michigan data center
“OpenAI announced that they're breaking ground on Stargate Michigan, a one gigawatt data center utilizing closed loop cooling, and they're getting out ahead of the water FUD. They say it uses water at the rate of a typical office building, creates thousands of …”
Cosgrove: OpenAI Internal Model Disproved Erdős Problem 90 Conjecture
“Basically, OpenAI figured out that this is not true, and that there actually are some, there are some n's for which this kind of max number of pairs is greater than the original Erdos conjecture. So, so for infinitely many n, this is not for every single n, ri…”
Judge prohibited AI extinction and doomerism arguments in Musk-OpenAI trial
“The judge prohibited, like, going too far into, like, Doomerism into the world stuff, and she's like, look, that's kind of a sideshow distraction, like, extinction humanity stuff is not the point of this case”
TBPN will report to Chris Lehane in OpenAI's strategy organization
“TBPN will sit within our strategy organization reporting to Chris Lehane.”
Hays: OpenAI raised $110B round from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank
“OpenAI raised a hundred and ten billion dollar round of funding from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank.”
Coogan: OpenAI's record funding equals 25% of 2026 venture capital outlays
“It's the biggest round for a private company ever, and it's also about one quarter of venture capital outlays that are expected for twenty-twenty-six in one round.”
Coogan: Leading AI labs are capturing half of all venture capital
“Venture as a class in a good year will do like four hundred billion, and across OpenAI at a 100,000,000,030 for Anthropic, 20 for XAI, then you have, you know, a bunch of NeoLabs all picking up a billion each. Like, you very quickly get to a few companies Rais…”
McCormick: OpenAI recouped all GPT-4 training costs and more
“GPT four is the really instructive is the really instructive example because I believe that model costs like a hundred million dollars to train, and it was really expensive at the time, but then very quickly they were on a multi-billion dollar run rate, and it…”
Bishop: Chinese AI firms IPO earlier with far less capital than OpenAI
“Yes, with much lower revenue, raising much less money, much lower valuations, and a lot of it is because they, you know, they actually need the capital. I mean, it's, I think they, but the amount of capital they need in the raising is a frat. It's like, you kn…”
Coogan: OpenAI is hiring hundreds of enterprise AI consultants
“OpenAI is hiring hundreds of new staffers to expand a technical consulting team that helps large corporations develop custom AI applications and agents to automate employee tasks, according to a person Knowledge with the company's plans.”
Patel: OpenAI's 750MW deal is small compared to 16GW 2028 target
“So the OpenAI deal is like for seven 50 megawatts, it's not that much capacity. On the order of like what OpenAI has talked about, you know, by the end of 28 they'll be at like 16 gigawatts.”
Apple Reportedly Rebuilding Siri as OS-Integrated Chatbot 'Campos'
“Apple plans to revamp Siri later this year by turning the digital assistant into the company's first artificial intelligence chatbot, thrusting the iPhone maker into a generative AI race dominated by OpenAI on Google. The chatbot, codenamed Kempos, will be emb…”
Altman: OpenAI added over $1B in API ARR in one month
“He shared today, we have added more than one billion of ARR in the last month just from our API business.”
OpenAI projects $6 billion in stock-based compensation for 2025
“Company expects to spend six billion this year on stock-based comp, almost half of its projected revenue.”
Hays: Altman Memo Directed OpenAI to Personalize ChatGPT for 800M Users
“So what Sam said in the internal Slack memo is he was directing more employees to focus on improving features of ChatGPT, such as personalizing the chat bot for more than eight hundred million people.”
Coogan: Andrej Karpathy broke AI consensus by projecting a decade of agents
“Even though he's worked at OpenAI, even though he's worked at Tesla, he broke rank, he went on the Dwarkesh Patel show, and said, you know what, I think we're more in a decade of agents. I think AGI might not be right around the corner. He took a contrarian st…”
Hays: Nvidia invests $10B for every $35B in GPUs OpenAI buys
“The basics of this deal are for every thirty five billion dollars of GPUs that OpenAI buys, NVIDIA will invest ten billion. So they're effectively just like paying for GPUs with, like, 30 percent-ish equity.”
Hays: An o3-level reasoning model was open-sourced within a year of o1
“So less than one year between O one announced, which was September of 20, 24. And we have an O three level model open sourced that's runnable on consumer hardware, wild progress.”
Coogan: OpenAI generates around $1B per month in revenue
“Like, you know, they're generating, what, a billion dollars a month in revenue at this point. Everyone uses the app. It's installed everywhere. Like, that, that, that token demand is not going anywhere, that infrastructure demand is not going anywhere, so.”