The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 15 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prince: Bot traffic will be 1,000x human internet traffic in five years
“And I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, going, going, you know, forward, say five years, that, that bot traffic will be a thousand times human traffic online.”
Elon Musk: Space will be cheapest location for AI compute in 2-3 years
“The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. And that'll be true within two years. Maybe three. Three at the latest.”
Musk: AI and humanoid robots will eliminate global poverty
“But AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty.”
Coogan: AI labs will likely solve the Millennium Prize problems this year
“I think that the millennium prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week, it feels like all of the different labs are like, Put a million dollars of inference on this. Put a million dollars of inference on this. There …”
AI will undoubtedly lead to fewer software engineering jobs, says Lynch
“So what does that mean if you're a software engineer? It means there's gonna be fewer jobs, aren't you? Without a doubt. Fewer jobs. For now.”
Shkreli: No clinical trial of BPC-157 will ever work
“I would bet anything. I would bet anything. No trial of BPC would work.”
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
Sam Lessin predicts most sub-$50M seed funds will disappear without DPI
“I think what we're going to find is that, you know, a, The market, most of those funds are going away because they don't have that and they're not going to be.”
Hausman: Most future frontier AI models will train on real-world robot data
“So I think over time, it's quite likely that, that the places are gonna switch a little bit, where most of the models, including, you know, LLMs and BLMs, are gonna be using real-world data collected through robots, because that's the data that has no ceiling,…”
Arnott: A water-based conflict with China in the Asia-Pacific is coming
“So the Asia Pacific fight with China, clearly that's a water-based conflict that's coming.”
Lessin: AI leverage will create one-person billion-dollar companies
“I totally buy the thesis that you're going to see individuals that have a lot of trust and brand and community and deeply understand a niche. Do things you haven't seen before. Like, I buy the one person billion dollar company thing. Like, I think that's real …”
McCormick: Cancer is probably gone in 10 years
“I think a hot take would be cancer is probably gone in 10 years, I think is one of my favorite hot takes. There's just so many different attacks on it, and CAR T cell therapies are doing well, and it's a matter of kind of scaling, scaling those out.”
Hays: Sequoia Will Make Money on Its X Investment in 10 Years
“I would be willing to bet my house that they'll make money on this investment in 10 years.”
Gerstner: California wealth tax will fail and asset protection referendum will pass
“The wealth tax will be defeated. We will pass the retirement And personal asset protection act as a referendum in California, which will prohibit people from stealing your retirement money or your personal assets that will get passed.”
AI will monitor employee messages and calls for real-time behavioral coaching
“I think to me what will happen is the analytics are going to get so much better. And these systems are going to know and they're going to be able to look at your, WhatsApp, and your messages, and your emails, and all of your calls, and they're going to be able…”