Anthropic

includes Anthropic Agent SDK, Anthropic Models, Anthropic Products, Anthropic Model

171 statements across 76 episodes · 58 bullish · 42 bearish · 31 people on the record · first statement Jan 28, 2025 by John Coogan · said 1,154 times in 221 episodes since 2024 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by John Coogan (359), Jordi Hays (168), Dylan Patel (14), Brad Gerstner (10), Ben Thompson (10), Tyler Cosgrove (9), Tae Kim (9), Martin Shkreli (8)

tap a year for its mentions
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075150202420252026episodes it came up in
004758150202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 888 mentions in 141 episodes 6 per episode
2025 259 mentions in 76 episodes 3 per episode
2024 7 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Anthropic, oldest first

Jan 28, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Coogan: Western AI Labs Will Port DeepSeek's Optimizations Into Their Models
“It's open source. The paper's out there. So that will get ported back to Llama, to OpenAI, to Anthropic, but I haven't seen that.”
John Coogan Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 50:51 DeepSeek Update, Market Crash, Timeline in Turmoil, Is VC Cooked, Zero Cope Policy
Jan 28, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Anthropic has an unreleased chain-of-thought model
“Like anthropic does have a chain of thought model. They just haven't released it publicly. And the reason for that is just financials and like their safety stuff.”
John Coogan Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 45:14 DeepSeek Update, Market Crash, Timeline in Turmoil, Is VC Cooked, Zero Cope Policy
Jan 28, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Hays: Mistral, Anthropic, and Cohere must match free models to survive
“The thing that's most fascinating to me is all these model companies, Mistral Anthropic, Cohere that really don't publicly have these capabilities. Where now anybody employed at those companies basically shouldn't sleep. For the next, however long it takes to …”
Jordi Hays Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 1:06:53 DeepSeek Update, Market Crash, Timeline in Turmoil, Is VC Cooked, Zero Cope Policy
Feb 10, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Coogan: Amazon's AI narrative is weaker because Jeff Bezos stepped down
“Whereas Amazon, they have deals with Anthropic. They host a lot of stuff. Obviously there's Alexa and there's AI in their products, but it's not as strong of a narrative. And a lot of it comes from the fact that they're no, they're kind of no longer in founder…”
John Coogan Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 20:06 The BEST Super Bowl Commercial (Saquon Barkley)
Feb 10, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Jordy: Anthropic's AI safety focus was the wrong short-term bet
“Anthropic made a clear bet around AI safety and a lot of other firms ignored that deep seek one of them. And so that seems to be in the short term, the wrong bet to make.”
Jordy (Geordie) Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 45:07 The BEST Super Bowl Commercial (Saquon Barkley)
Feb 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: AI and LLMs will create at least $1 trillion in value
“How, in what world does AI and LLMs not wind up being around a trillion dollars of value? I get that. Like it could go any direction and like how you slice that up. It could be very equal. It could be one winner take all. And you know, Hey, people are gonna ha…”
John Coogan Feb 19, 2025 ▶ 16:34 How Does GROK Compare? (Full Analysis)
Mar 8, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garry Tan predicts an inevitable AI shared memory layer for operating systems.
“The tricky thing is it's pretty clear that OpenAI, Anthropic, and you know, Windows, Apple, iOS, Android. Like, this is sort of how the OS almost inevitably will work, assuming that people still make software.”
Garry Tan Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 19:31 Garry Tan talks the state of YC, the impact of AI, and the dawn of innovation.
Mar 28, 2025 positive
Opinion
Schneider: DeepSeek pushed efficiency earlier because it ran out of chips before US labs
“I think deep sea kind of came to that earlier. The sort of need to really push on kind of the efficiency frontier as opposed to the capability frontier, because they ran out of chips before the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Jordan Schneider Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 14:24 Jordan Schneider (ChinaTalk) On the US-China Power Struggle
Apr 6, 2025 positive
Opinion
OpenAI researcher Aidan McLaughlin praises Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus
“My Sydney is, easy answer for me, is it was Claude Thoreopis. That was like such a great model, and you know, not an OpenAI model too, so y'all never say that. But, you know, a ton of life to it.”
Aidan McLaughlin Apr 6, 2025 ▶ 17:20 Aidan McLaughlin (OpenAI) On ChatGPT, model welfare, and path to AGI
Apr 9, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swyx: Google is the only viable challenger to Anthropic's MCP
“I would say that if there were any challenger to MCP, it will come from Google because Google has native integrations to Gmail, calendar, YouTube, what have you, they already launched it and it's already first party in there.”
Shawn 'swyx' Wang Apr 9, 2025 ▶ 14:11 Are AI AGENTS Learning to DREAM? | Shawn Wang on TBPN April 4th
Apr 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Swyx: Anthropic is building its own MCP registry
“The main challenge that they're going to all going to face is that Anthropic is coming up with their own registry. So Anthropic wants to own this.”
Shawn 'swyx' Wang Apr 9, 2025 ▶ 12:00 Are AI AGENTS Learning to DREAM? | Shawn Wang on TBPN April 4th
Jun 7, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Douglas: 10x RL compute increases still deliver linear performance gains
“We're still seeing these huge gains where you go, you know, 10 X compute increase in RL. We still getting like very distinct linear gains for that.”
Sholto Douglas Jun 7, 2025 ▶ 1:30:12 Weekly Recap - Elon Vs Trump, Ukraine's Drone Attack, Cluely Update & OpenAI CRO
Jun 7, 2025
Disclosure
Douglas: Frontier Labs Avoid RL Training Directly on ARC-AGI
“And I mean, I think if you are old on Arc AGI, then it would, you'd probably get superhuman at it pretty fast. But I think we're all trying not to RL on it so that it functions as like an interesting held out.”
Sholto Douglas Jun 7, 2025 ▶ 1:55:15 Weekly Recap - Elon Vs Trump, Ukraine's Drone Attack, Cluely Update & OpenAI CRO
Jul 1, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Apple requested custom AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic for Private Cloud
“In his discussions with both Anthropic and OpenAI, the iPhone maker requested a custom version that could run on Apple's private cloud computer.”
John Coogan Jul 1, 2025 ▶ 19:18 Apple Considers New AI partnership
Jul 5, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Prince: Anthropic is 30,000x and OpenAI 750x harder than Google for traffic
“As you looked at open AI, it was about 750 times harder than with the kind of Google of old to get traffic with something like anthropic is 30,000 times harder.”
Matthew Prince Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 1:29:59 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025
Assertion Supported
Kukoff: Senate Voted 99-1 to Remove AI Regulation Moratorium
“It's out, now it was done, 99 to one in the Senate, almost unanimous in the Senate, To get this out. This was a big win for Dario of Anthropic, probably the number one beneficiary.”
Zach Kukoff Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 1:15:01 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 19, 2025 positive
Opinion
Coogan: OpenAI owns knowledge retrieval, Anthropic owns codegen
“I would say open AI has dominated and owns knowledge retrieval. Anthropic owns Cogen, and they both have kind of flywheels that are accelerating.”
John Coogan Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 19:07 Weekly Recap: CEO Affair at Coldplay Concert, Elon Musk's AI Girlfriend, Cognition Acquires Windsurf
Jul 19, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Hays: Anthropic Surged from $1B to $4B Run Rate
“Anthropic this year has gone from the beginning of the year to one to four billion dollars.”
Jordi Hays Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 40:04 Weekly Recap: CEO Affair at Coldplay Concert, Elon Musk's AI Girlfriend, Cognition Acquires Windsurf
Jul 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Gemini matches OpenAI and Anthropic in research quality
“Gemini is, is at the same like level of like AI research quality as OpenAI anthropic by most benchmarks, by most people that use them.”
John Coogan Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 1:17:05 Weekly Recap: CEO Affair at Coldplay Concert, Elon Musk's AI Girlfriend, Cognition Acquires Windsurf
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Prediction Held up
Coogan: Anthropic's next major cluster will run on Amazon
“I believe Anthropic is pretty tightly hitched to Amazon, and I think the next big cluster from Anthropic will be powered by Amazon for the most part”
John Coogan Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 10:09 Weekly Recap: Apple Sitting on $100B, Disney Enters The AI Race, Marc Andreessen, All About GPT-5
Aug 12, 2025 positive
Opinion
Coogan: Anthropic has outperformed OpenAI in X mindshare
“I feel like OpenAI has been more dominant just in the real world, and actually Anthropix done very well on X.”
John Coogan Aug 12, 2025 ▶ 7:44 BREAKING: Sam Altman VS Elon Musk
Aug 16, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Randle: ChatGPT drives the majority of industry foundation model revenue
“The majority of all of that, or at least the plurality of all of that is ChatGPT. And ChatGPT, even though it is served by a foundation model company, is an application. It is a consumer subscription that has an immense amount of power. It has an immense amoun…”
Everett Randle Aug 16, 2025 ▶ 1:51:12 Weekly Recap: Sam vs. Elon, Cluely's Crazy Ad, UFC x Paramount, Apple's AI Robot
Aug 16, 2025 positive
Opinion
Coogan: Anthropic leads narrative on X while OpenAI dominates real world
“I feel like OpenAI has been more dominant just in the real world, and actually Anthropix done very well on X.”
John Coogan Aug 16, 2025 ▶ 7:45 Weekly Recap: Sam vs. Elon, Cluely's Crazy Ad, UFC x Paramount, Apple's AI Robot
Oct 17, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Salesforce utilizes models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, and xAI
“If you are your Slack user, you need to see the Slack bot that we introduced here, which is built on Anthropic. It's also amazing. So we use open AI. We use Anthropic. We use Gemini. I just did an interview with Sundar, you know, you can see it on YouTube. We …”
Marc Benioff Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 4:41 Marc Benioff on AI Agents' Biggest Problem
Oct 17, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Salesforce owns one percent of AI startup Anthropic
“We own one percent of Anthropic.”
Marc Benioff Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 11:45 Marc Benioff on AI Agents' Biggest Problem
Oct 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: All of Anthropic's Revenue Comes From Its Coding Model
“All of their revenue comes from having the best coding model, which is very different than having a lot of revenue because you have a hit consumer product, because you have to keep training the next model.”
Jordi Hays Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 7:16 OpenAI Drops A Web Browser? Our Reactions | Diet TBPN
Oct 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Hays: Anthropic's $2.66B AWS bill consumes roughly all of its 2025 revenue
“Apparently, Anthropic spent 2.66 billion on Amazon web services in the first three quarters of 20, 25, around 100% of their estimated revenue.”
Jordi Hays Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 10:58 OpenAI Drops A Web Browser? Our Reactions | Diet TBPN
Oct 28, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Nadella: Azure Welcomes Anthropic, Grok, and Google Gemini Alongside OpenAI
“Hey, I'm happy with OpenAI. I would love to have Anthropic, MAI, Crock, anyone. If Google wants to put Gemini on Azure, please do so.”
Satya Nadella Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 12:37 Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Live on TBPN
Nov 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurman: Anthropic demanded $1B+ in year one to power Siri
“Anthropic wanted multiples of billions. I believe starting in a billion in year one and doubling every year thereafter, at least for the next three years.”
Mark Gurman Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 17:00 Mark Gurman on Apple Glasses Release Date, The Next AirPods, The Problem With Siri & More
Nov 22, 2025 neutral
Insight
Coogan: Open-source LLMs act as stalking horses to depress proprietary pricing
“It's sort of like, You know, a stalking horse, another, another animal based analogy, but it's sort of a stalking horse for like, Hey Gemini and anthropic. Like if you guys don't lower your prices, we will go to the open source option. And that's sort of what …”
John Coogan Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 16:36 The State of AI: A Field Trip to TBPN’s Aura Farm + Today’s Top Tech Stories | Diet TBPN
Dec 16, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
AI labs offer top researchers packages worth $100M or more
“But with AI companies, including meta platforms, Google, Anthropic, wooing top researchers with pay packages that can be worth a hundred million dollars or more, researchers and engineers have been able to hold out for the most attractive terms, and in many ca…”
John Coogan Dec 16, 2025 ▶ 17:41 OpenAI ENDS Vesting Cliff
Dec 16, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anthropic has ordered $21 billion worth of TPUs
“Anthropic has ordered twenty-one billion dollars worth of TPUs to train to train large claws.”
John Coogan Dec 16, 2025 ▶ 23:48 OpenAI ENDS Vesting Cliff
Jan 8, 2026 negative
Opinion
Hays: xAI's enterprise adoption didn't justify a valuation above Anthropic
“These were just rumors, but when you looked at XAI's traction relative to their valuation at the time, they were looking for a greater valuation than anthropic. And yet the enterprise adoption certainly didn't justify it by itself.”
Jordi Hays Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 0:19 xAI Raises $20B, Anthropic’s $350B Valuation, OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Health | Diet TBPN
Jan 21, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amodei: Anthropic rarely faces Chinese AI models in enterprise contract bids
“When we go out, when we're you know, competing against other companies for enterprise contracts, We see, just honestly and candidly, we see Google, and we see OpenAI. Every once in a while, we see a couple other US players. I have almost never lost a deal, los…”
Dario Amodei Jan 21, 2026 ▶ 2:19 Davos Reactions, Waymo in the News, WB & Netflix Strike All Cash Deal | Diet TBPN
Jan 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Anthropic cloud inference costs ran 23% over projections
“Amir says that Anthropix inference costs on Google and Amazon servers were 23% higher than the company, ah, projected.”
John Coogan Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 20:58 Capital One Acquires Brex for $5B, Davos’s $500M business, Apple’s Siri rebuild | Diet TBPN
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Anthropic revenue run rate reached $9B by end of 2025
“The revenue run rate for the end of 2025 was Nine billion up from four billion in July, 20, 25.”
John Coogan Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 19:51 Capital One Acquires Brex for $5B, Davos’s $500M business, Apple’s Siri rebuild | Diet TBPN
Jan 28, 2026 positive
Opinion
Steinberger: Claude Opus is by far the best foundation model
“Opus is with quite a bit lead the best.”
Peter Steinberger Jan 28, 2026 ▶ 18:05 Full Interview: Clawdbot’s Peter Steinberger Makes First Public Appearance Since Launch
Jan 28, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Anthropic politely asked Steinberger to rename Clawdbot without sending external lawyers
“That's also why it's a little bit of a banger that I got an email from an tropic That I had to rename the project. And I mean, kudos, they were really nice. They didn't send their lawyers. They sent someone internally.”
Peter Steinberger Jan 28, 2026 ▶ 19:47 Full Interview: Clawdbot’s Peter Steinberger Makes First Public Appearance Since Launch
Jan 31, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Claude Bot Renamed to Moldbot and Open Claw After Trademark Issues
“After trademark issues with Anthropic, they changed the name first to Moldbot, then to Open Claw.”
John Coogan Jan 31, 2026 ▶ 29:48 Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, Google targets Chinese Cyber Weapon, WSJ Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Feb 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Patel: Anthropic separates inference and training across different chip clusters
“You know, you do your inference on one set of chips and you do your training on another set of chips. So like, Anthropic does this.”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 15:25 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: xAI and Anthropic compute leads bet on space data centers by 2028
“Well, there's a bet, right, between basically the head of compute of XAI and the head of compute of Anthropic. And the bet is, what percentage of worldwide data center capacities in space by the end of 28, and the bar is one percent. And so the XAI guy is like…”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 10:21 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 3, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 35:41 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Patel: Chinese users access Anthropic via routing through neighboring countries
“I think Anthropic does not sell AI access to China. You know, they loop it through, and you can see this in the traffic data. They go through Korea and Japan and other places, but like, and so they get it.”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 28:56 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 3, 2026 bullish
Insight
Patel: Claude Code is for non-coders, not software developers
“So I think everyone's, like, cloud code is for coders, and it's like, no. Cloud code is for people who don't code now. Right? And that's the big realization this year.”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 30:36 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 3, 2026 negative
Opinion
Patel: Market sentiment on OpenAI is peak negative due to Anthropic
“People are peak negative on OpenAI right now because of how good Anthropix has been killing it.”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 22:01 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 5, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hays: Anthropic struggles to consistently crack the top 25 iPhone apps
“So, so really bold campaign for a company that hasn't been able to consistently crack the top 25 of the iPhone apps.”
Jordi Hays Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 11:58 Anthropic-OpenAI war, Walmart hits $1T, Gas Town & Vibecoding | Diet TBPN
Feb 5, 2026 neutral
Prediction Held up
Coogan: Anthropic won't air all four Super Bowl ads due to $80M cost
“Someone ran the numbers, and if they did all, if they aired all four, it would be something like eighty million dollars or something. I don't think that they're gonna run all four.”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 6:09 Anthropic-OpenAI war, Walmart hits $1T, Gas Town & Vibecoding | Diet TBPN
Feb 5, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Anthropic falsely implies ChatGPT display ads will manipulate model responses
“As the ads that are coming to chat to be to your effectively display ads. Everybody in the industry by now should know this, yet this campaign implies that the ads will influence the response and that you cannot trust it.”
Jordi Hays Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 7:01 Anthropic-OpenAI war, Walmart hits $1T, Gas Town & Vibecoding | Diet TBPN
Feb 5, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Effectively zero percent chance OpenAI wins the Super Bowl ad battle
“And there is zero, I will go out now and say, I would say there's effectively a zero percent chance that OpenAI can win the Super Bowl this year.”
Jordi Hays Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 16:15 Anthropic-OpenAI war, Walmart hits $1T, Gas Town & Vibecoding | Diet TBPN
Feb 5, 2026 negative
Opinion
Altman calls Anthropic's Super Bowl ad deceptive
“The main thing that's wrong with the ads is, like, using a deceptive ad to criticize deceptive ads feels, I don't know, something doesn't sit right with me about that.”
Sam Altman Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 27:56 FULL INTERVIEW: Sam Altman Responds to Anthropic’s Attack Ads, Live on TBPN
Feb 5, 2026 negative
Disclosure
Altman: OpenAI will never put ads into the LLM output stream
“Our first principle with ads is that we're not gonna put stuff into the LLM stream.”
Sam Altman Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 27:45 FULL INTERVIEW: Sam Altman Responds to Anthropic’s Attack Ads, Live on TBPN
Feb 5, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: OpenAI will launch a legal review product ASAP
“Claude should be able to do that, and it makes a lot of sense, and I expect OpenAI to launch this product, like, ASAP.”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 19:05 Anthropic's secret strategy behind its Super Bowl ad campaign
Feb 5, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Anthropic is about to win the public vibe war
“They've been winning the Vibe War with developers, and they've been winning the Vibe War on X, and now it feels like they're about to win the Vibe War in the public in the public square.”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 5:43 Anthropic's secret strategy behind its Super Bowl ad campaign
Feb 5, 2026 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
LegalZoom stock fell 15% following Anthropic's new legal tool announcement
“LegalZoom is down 15% since this announcement. It's now a 1.38 billion dollar company.”
Jordi Hays Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 18:14 Anthropic's secret strategy behind its Super Bowl ad campaign
Feb 5, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Claude has lost the race to reach billions of users
“Anthropic has already lost the race to serve billions of people, right? I don't think that they're, when you look at Gemini's sort of traction, OpenAI's, ChatGPT traction, like it seems like the race to get to Three billion monthly actives is kind of over. I d…”
Jordi Hays Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 8:40 Anthropic's secret strategy behind its Super Bowl ad campaign
Feb 5, 2026
Opinion
Coogan: Anthropic Is the Apple and OpenAI Is the Microsoft of AI
“So Anthropic is the Apple and OpenAI is the Microsoft, and they're also Aligned with Microsoft. Owned in part by Microsoft.”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 14:49 Anthropic's secret strategy behind its Super Bowl ad campaign
Feb 5, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Anthropic's ad campaign will damage consumer trust in LLMs
“It's going to broadly damage consumer trust and LLMs. Some people will just be like, wait, like, They're, they've been kind of like making money on me without me knowing.”
Jordi Hays Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 7:57 Anthropic's secret strategy behind its Super Bowl ad campaign
Feb 6, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Hays: Anthropic has lost the race for billions of consumer users
“Anthropic has already lost the race to serve billions of people, right? I don't think that they're, when you look at Gemini's sort of traction, OpenAI's, ChatGPT traction, Like, it seems like the race to get to three billion monthly actives is kind of over.”
Jordi Hays Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 8:12 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Anthropic's ad campaign will broadly damage consumer trust in LLMs
“And then the other thing is, like, it's gonna broadly damage consumer trust in LLMs.”
Jordi Hays Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 7:46 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 negative
Opinion
Hays: Anthropic's ad campaign plants false impression of ChatGPT ads
“It's brilliant, well-timed, and incredibly strategic for a few reasons I'll outline below, and it's designed to plant a false impression of Chad GPT's forthcoming ad product in the minds of hundreds of millions of Americans.”
Jordi Hays Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 6:21 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Coogan: Anthropic is winning the vibe war with developers and X
“They've been winning the Vibe War with developers, and they've been winning the Vibe War on X, and now it feels like they're about to win the Vibe War.”
John Coogan Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 6:11 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Coogan: Anthropic is the Apple to OpenAI's Microsoft
“Anthropic is the Apple, and OpenAI is the Microsoft, and they're also aligned with Microsoft, or owned in part by Microsoft.”
John Coogan Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 12:24 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
Hays: LegalZoom fell 15% to $1.38B following Anthropic's announcement
“Like LegalZoom is down 15%. Since this announcement. It's now a 1.38 billion dollar company.”
Jordi Hays Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 13:24 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: OpenAI will launch a consumer legal assistant product ASAP
“Claude should be able to do that, and it makes a lot of sense, and I expect OpenAI to launch this product, like, ASAP.”
John Coogan Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 14:05 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
O'Laughlin: 30,000 Accenture employees will learn Claude Code
“There's, they're doing 30,000 people at Accenture. [216] John Coogan: What do you mean? [216] Doug O'Laughlin: To like, [217] Doug O'Laughlin: 30, 30,000 people at Accenture are going to learn how to cloud code.”
Doug O'Laughlin Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 3:30 FULL INTERVIEW: Doug O'Laughlin Thinks Microsoft is OUT of the AI Race
Feb 6, 2026 bearish
Opinion
O'Laughlin: Claude 4.6 model release was disappointing
“I think, four, six was a little disappointing, if I'm being honest with you.”
Doug O'Laughlin Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 12:15 FULL INTERVIEW: Doug O'Laughlin Thinks Microsoft is OUT of the AI Race
Feb 6, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Laughlin: Anthropic's margins are lower than perceived due to lack of free users
“Honestly, Anthropic has no free users, or like on a relative basis, so their margins are ironically like, kind of on a like-to-like basis, kind of not as good as you think.”
Doug O'Laughlin Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 13:03 FULL INTERVIEW: Doug O'Laughlin Thinks Microsoft is OUT of the AI Race
Feb 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Anthropic could achieve a Netflix-sized ad-free consumer subscriber base
“Any product that, like, really catches on in the workplace could very well trickle over into life, and Anthropic could someday have a pretty big, you know, they could have, like, a Netflix-sized subscriber base for people that just want an ad-free AI experienc…”
Jordi Hays Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 16:11 FULL INTERVIEW: Doug O'Laughlin Thinks Microsoft is OUT of the AI Race
Feb 10, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hays: Adweek ranks Claude's Super Bowl ad in bottom three percent
“Morgan is sharing audience. Didn't like Anthropics ad placing it in the bottom. Three percent of all Superbowl ads from the last five years.”
Jordi Hays Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 10:00 Super Bowl Ad Reactions, ChatGPT launches ads, Jordi vs France | Diet TBPN
Feb 10, 2026 negative
Opinion
Hays: Anthropic's Claude commercial baited OpenAI into an overreaction
“They basically made open AI way over react.”
Jordi Hays Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 7:18 Super Bowl Ad Reactions, ChatGPT launches ads, Jordi vs France | Diet TBPN
Feb 10, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Cosgrove: Claude app reached number 23 following Super Bowl ad
“Yeah, it's at 23 right now.”
Tyler Cosgrove Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 8:21 Super Bowl Ad Reactions, ChatGPT launches ads, Jordi vs France | Diet TBPN
Feb 11, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: The real SaaS crash won't begin until frontier AI labs IPO
“I think the real Sasspocalypse might not start until you have some of the labs public, and people can actually really rotate out of software fully and say, I don't want to own this thing that I don't fully understand how AI is going to impact it when I could o…”
Jordi Hays Feb 11, 2026 ▶ 18:14 Elon’s go-to banker leads SpaceX IPO, SaaSination, Bejing’s robot Boom | Diet TBPN
Feb 11, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Anthropic safeguards head resigned citing existential concerns
“Head of Anthropic Safeguards Research just quit and said the world is in peril, and then he's moving to the UK to write poetry and quote become invisible.”
Jordi Hays Feb 11, 2026 ▶ 10:41 Elon’s go-to banker leads SpaceX IPO, SaaSination, Bejing’s robot Boom | Diet TBPN
Feb 14, 2026 neutral
Insight
Coogan: AI seat pricing provides enterprise budget control over consumption
“It's essentially a consumption-based product, but psychologically, if I'm rolling out, ah, Claude to a company, and I set up seats for a team, I know that there's individual rate limits, so no one individual is gonna, like, blow me up, basically.”
John Coogan Feb 14, 2026 ▶ 19:17 Becoming Unsloppable, Anthropic’s Series G, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Feb 14, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Anthropic reached $14 billion in revenue after 10x yearly growth
“We've all seen the revenue chart, 10 X growth four years in a row, a hundred million, a billion, now fourteen billion.”
John Coogan Feb 14, 2026 ▶ 0:08 Becoming Unsloppable, Anthropic’s Series G, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Feb 14, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Salesforce holds roughly a one percent stake in Anthropic
“I think when Mark was on, he said they have about a point of anthropic going into this round, if I remember correctly.”
Jordi Hays Feb 14, 2026 ▶ 18:02 Becoming Unsloppable, Anthropic’s Series G, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Feb 14, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anthropic raised $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation
“Anthropic has raised thirty billion dollars at three hundred and eighty billion post money valuation.”
John Coogan Feb 14, 2026 ▶ 0:03 Becoming Unsloppable, Anthropic’s Series G, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Feb 18, 2026 neutral
Insight
Amodei: AI models make money individually while companies lose money scaling
“Each model makes money, but the company loses money.”
Dario Amodei Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 17:30 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Feb 18, 2026 bullish
Insight
Amodei: AI market with three rational firms will not collapse to zero margins
“The point is it doesn't equilibrate to perfect competition with zero margins. If there's like three firms, if there's three firms in the economy, All are kind of independently behaving, behaving rationally. It doesn't equilibrate to zero.”
Dario Amodei Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 16:00 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Feb 18, 2026 negative
Opinion
McCormick: OpenAI and Anthropic are the most unprofitable companies in history
“These are the most unprofitable companies in human history, I think.”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 3:11 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Feb 18, 2026 positive
Opinion
McCormick: OpenAI and Anthropic inference margins are healthy
“Well, it's way, way cheaper than what you pay to Anthropic or OpenAI, so they must have good margins, and everyone sort of agrees at this point that inference margins are in fact healthy.”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 5:25 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Feb 18, 2026 neutral
Insight
Amodei: Deployed AI models are profitable, but labs lose money scaling training
“Each model makes money, but the company loses money.”
Dario Amodei Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 9:33 The Cournot Equation, Micron’s $200B Bet, Hollywood vs. Seedance 2.0 | Diet TBPN
Feb 18, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amodei: Frontier AI gross margins are currently very positive
“Yeah, so the, again, the gross margins right now are very positive.”
Dario Amodei Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 8:34 The Cournot Equation, Micron’s $200B Bet, Hollywood vs. Seedance 2.0 | Diet TBPN
Feb 18, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Reports indicate Claude was used in Maduro raid planning
“There was reporting last week that Claude was leveraged in some way during the Maduro planning, the planning of the Maduro raid.”
Jordi Hays Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 25:53 The Cournot Equation, Micron’s $200B Bet, Hollywood vs. Seedance 2.0 | Diet TBPN
Feb 18, 2026 positive
Insight
Amodei: Frontier AI oligopoly will not equilibrate to zero margins
“If there's like three firms, if there's three firms in the economy, all are kind of independently behaving, behaving rationally, it doesn't equilibrate to zero.”
Dario Amodei Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 8:15 The Cournot Equation, Micron’s $200B Bet, Hollywood vs. Seedance 2.0 | Diet TBPN
Feb 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cosgrove: Only OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and xAI operate at frontier scale
“I mean, especially if you're talking about these big pre-trains, it's really just these four. No one else is really at that scale.”
Tyler Cosgrove Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 5:18 The AI lab market map, Robinhood brings startups to retail, GLPs & hedge funds | Diet TBPN
Feb 19, 2026 neutral
Insight
Hays: Startups in the path of AI improvements will get stomped
“I mean, the models, you know, if you're in the path of models improving, you will get stomped like Godzilla, but there's still plenty of opportunities all over the ecosystem, especially if you're not doing something that's in software.”
Jordi Hays Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 29:01 The AI lab market map, Robinhood brings startups to retail, GLPs & hedge funds | Diet TBPN
Feb 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Anthropic restricts Claude OAuth tokens exclusively to its first-party apps
“In the Cloud Code docs, OAuth, and OAuth authentication, which is used with the Free, Pro, and Max plans, is intended exclusively for Cloud Code and Cloud.ai. Using OAuth tokens obtained through Cloud Free, Pro, or Max accounts in any other product, tool, or s…”
Jordi Hays Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 23:01 The AI lab market map, Robinhood brings startups to retail, GLPs & hedge funds | Diet TBPN
Feb 19, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anthropic Is Hiring a Dedicated Salesforce Administrator
“Anthropic is hiring a Salesforce admin.”
John Coogan Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 10:02 The SaaSpocalypse Is Over
Feb 20, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Amodei: AI models will surpass human cognitive capabilities within years
“My fundamental view is that AI has been on an exponential for the last 10 years and as part of a sort of Moore's law for intelligence, and that we are now well advanced on that curve, and there are only a small number of years for AI models surpassing the cogn…”
Dario Amodei Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 26:33 The SaaSpocalypse is Cancelled, WB Back in Play, Zuck Grilled in LA Trial | Diet TBPN
Feb 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Shah: Anthropic will likely IPO in the next 3 to 6 months
“I have a strong suspicion that Anthropic is going to go, you know, in the next three to six months. They just have so much momentum and there's a lot of value being first.”
Alap Shah Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 20:05 Why My Article Just Tanked the Market
Feb 23, 2026 negative
Insight
Shah: AI labs avoid predicting economic fallout to protect fundraising
“But they can't go so far as to say like, hey, if you put the pieces together, Then this is how it's going to play out. I think it's too sort of damaging to sort of their reputations and like, you know, their ability to fundraise and things like that.”
Alap Shah Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 26:01 Why My Article Just Tanked the Market
Feb 24, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intuit shares rose 5.4% on Anthropic partnership
“Intuit shares jump 5.4% on Pact with Anthropic.”
John Coogan Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 22:42 Kim K's New Energy Drink, Citrini Discourse Rages On, the $100B Meta-AMD Deal | Diet TBPN
Feb 24, 2026 negative
What-if
Hays: Anthropic Would Be Finished If Caught Trading Against Enterprise Clients
“The only thing is if it came out that anthropic Was effectively day trading against the companies that they want to sell their models to. It would be basically over.”
Jordi Hays Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 15:29 Kim K's New Energy Drink, Citrini Discourse Rages On, the $100B Meta-AMD Deal | Diet TBPN
Feb 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Anthropic Battles Pentagon Over Surveillance and Lethal AI Uses
“It's also locked in a battle with the Defense Department over how its clawed suite are used after it told the Pentagon it couldn't be used for domestic surveillance or autonomous lethal activities.”
Jordi Hays Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 21:23 Big Tech to Pay for Power, Anthropic Abandons Safety, the Adoption Paradox | Diet TBPN
Feb 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Leading AI labs are capturing half of all venture capital
“Venture as a class in a good year will do like four hundred billion, and across OpenAI at a 100,000,000,030 for Anthropic, 20 for XAI, then you have, you know, a bunch of NeoLabs all picking up a billion each. Like, you very quickly get to a few companies Rais…”
John Coogan Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 17:18 Big Tech to Pay for Power, Anthropic Abandons Safety, the Adoption Paradox | Diet TBPN
Feb 26, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hays: Hackers Used Claude to Breach 195M Mexican Government Records
“Hackers use Claude to steal a 150 gigabytes of Mexican government data. They told Claude they're doing a bug bounty. Claude initially refused. A hacker just kept asking and manages to successfully steal some documents. Apparently, it's four state governments, …”
Jordi Hays Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 25:24 Big Tech to Pay for Power, Anthropic Abandons Safety, the Adoption Paradox | Diet TBPN
Feb 26, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hays: Anthropic Abandons AI Safety Pauses if Rivals Release Comparable Models
“Anthropic previously paused development work on its model. If it could be Classified as dangerous, but it said it would end that practice if a comparable or superior model was released by a competitor, given that they are at the frontier, that kind of opens th…”
Jordi Hays Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 20:47 Big Tech to Pay for Power, Anthropic Abandons Safety, the Adoption Paradox | Diet TBPN
Mar 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Supply chain risk labels have only targeted foreign companies
“It's only been used for foreign countries. Kaspersky Labs was a Russian cybersecurity company that was deemed to be a supply chain threat. Huawei is a supply chain risk because of the five G towers that could potentially have back doors.”
John Coogan Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 18:13 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 positive
Opinion
Coogan: $200M Federal Ban Is a Minor Bump for $10B Anthropic
“You know, you're talking about a two hundred million dollar contract for a company that does ten billion in ARR, ah, this is two percent of revenue. In many ways, it's, ah, you know, a bump in the road.”
John Coogan Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 3:38 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hays: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Are Terminating Anthropic Products
“The US federal housing, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are also terminating the use of anthropic products, which was announced this morning.”
Jordi Hays Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 2:10 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anthropic Clashed over Surveillance and Lethal Weapons Clauses Permitted to OpenAI
“So there were two main sticking points that they went back and forth on. No mass domestic surveillance, and no fully autonomous lethal weapons, and there's been a question as to why OpenAI was allowed to Include that language in their contract and say, like, h…”
John Coogan Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 10:04 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Opinion
Coogan: Amodei made a comms error arguing against military AI
“I thought it would have just been better Like, much more stronger communication for him to say, hey, look, we're anthropic, we've built a system that's specifically good at answering questions, being friendly and helpful, writing code, like, our system is awes…”
John Coogan Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 20:23 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hays: Emil Michael said Anthropic sought to block public database searches
“And Emil Michael had said that, ah, Anthropic wanted to block searching over public databases as well.”
Jordi Hays Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 32:22 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Hays: Emil Michael claimed Dario Amodei skipped a critical defense call
“Emil Michael came out Friday night and said, it was five, 13, 13 minutes past the deadline. I'm trying to get in touch with Anthropic. I try to get on the phone with Dario. Dario says he's in a meeting.”
Jordi Hays Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 11:56 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Supply chain risk ban applies only to government contracts
“There was a perception that this was, like, going to kill Anthropic, because if Nvidia has a government contract, then they can't do any deals with, ah, with Anthropic whatsoever, and that's not true, apparently. The, ah, the supply chain risk is specifically,…”
John Coogan Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 17:42 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Opinion
Coogan: Amodei used classified contracts to restrict military AI
“He clearly believes that, that the Department of War should not be using AI broadly, and then he was trying to use his contract as a way to sort of enforce that, because he has that leadership position with the most deep integration to classified systems.”
John Coogan Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 21:16 FULL BREAKDOWN: Trump BANS Anthropic
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Opinion
Thompson: US Government Actively Trying to Hurt Anthropic Over Subservience
“The goal isn't to, fine, we just won't use Anthropic. I do think the goal is to hurt Anthropic. And you're, if you're not going to be subservient to us, you're not going to be allowed to build a power base, period.”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 19:24 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Opinion
Thompson: Anthropic's Technical Unreadiness Excuse for the Military Is Weak
“I think Anthropik's position is significantly weaker on that point. Like at the end of the day, we either trust the military or not to make these sorts of decisions. That's why we have a military.”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 26:26 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
Mar 2, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Thompson: Anthropic Commands SF Talent While OpenAI Aligns With America
“Anthropic has a local advantage in that most people, I think, in the industry are with them, and they have a national PR problem in that I think a lot of folks outside of tech don't understand why tech companies always try to Or resist helping the US governmen…”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 28:26 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
Mar 2, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thompson: Anthropic Military Standoff Is First of Many State Power Clashes
“To the extent AI is as impactful and powerful as it is, The more these questions, fundamental questions that we thought have been settled for hundreds of years, if not thousands of years, are going to be raised, and this is just the first of several episodes w…”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 12:23 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Insight
Thompson: Private AI Labs Imposing Unilateral Limits Invites Severe State Backlash
“Unilaterally imposing restrictions, even if those restrictions are good, isn't just an issue as far as who rules us, the democracy issue, that sort of Palmer Luckey, I think very eloquently raised. It's inviting Very bad outcomes for those asserting that in ge…”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 3:37 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
Mar 2, 2026 negative
Opinion
Thompson: Trusting Dario Amodei Over Congress Abandons Democratic Governance
“You could say Congress isn't gonna do anything, therefore, Amadei should. Just appreciate that is giving up on the democratic process and saying we should have unelected, unaccountable individuals making weighty decisions.”
Ben Thompson Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 22:53 FULL INTERVIEW: Ben Thompson on Anthropic v. DoW
Mar 3, 2026 positive
Opinion
Coogan: Anthropic's canceled $200M federal contract represents only 2% of revenue
“You know, you're talking about a two hundred million dollar contract for a company that does ten billion in ARR. This is two percent of revenue. In many ways, it's, ah, you know, a bump in the road.”
John Coogan Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 3:44 Anthropic v. DoW, Paramount wins WB, OpenAI raises $100B | Diet TBPN
Mar 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anthropic defense dispute centered on surveillance and autonomous weapons
“So there were two main sticking points that they went back and forth on no mass domestic surveillance and no fully autonomous lethal weapons.”
John Coogan Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 9:15 Anthropic v. DoW, Paramount wins WB, OpenAI raises $100B | Diet TBPN
Mar 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Hays: Anthropic objected to AI use in Maduro raid
“Anthropic had taken issue with how their products were used in the Maduro raid.”
Jordi Hays Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 1:51 Anthropic v. DoW, Paramount wins WB, OpenAI raises $100B | Diet TBPN
Mar 6, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Hays: Anthropic Officially Designated as a Federal Supply Chain Risk
“This also coincided with Anthropic, I guess, officially being designated as a supply chain risk”
Jordi Hays Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 25:52 Daniel Gross’ AGI predictions, SpaceX IPO news, Trump takes control of US chip exports | Diet TBPN
Mar 6, 2026 neutral
Prediction Held up
Cosgrove: OpenAI Will Make Additional Deals With the US Government
“Whichever way, like, the anthropic Pentagon stuff, like, evolves, like, I think it's very clear that this is not, like, the last time government deals will be made, right? Like, the OpenAI deal is not the last deal that OpenAI will make with the government.”
Tyler Cosgrove Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 0:50 A Short History of America Nationalizing its Companies
Mar 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Anthropic revenue growth is trailing OpenAI by roughly one month
“Because we saw these two revenue lines where, ah, OpenAI is just absolutely going vertical, so is Anthropic, just like one month behind. Like, they're both scaling incredibly quickly.”
John Coogan Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 6:26 OpenAI drops GPT-5.4, Iran War fallout, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Anthropic is hiring a policy manager for chemical weapons and explosives.
“They're hiring for a policy manager who will be in charge of chemical weapons and high yield explosives.”
John Coogan Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 26:29 Samsung’s $70B Chip Bet, Apple Doing Nothing But Winning AI, Bezos’ New Fund | Diet TBPN
Mar 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Anthropic is running a $1B PE deal with Blackstone and Permira
“Anthropic is running a parallel deal with Blackstone, Hellman, Friedman, and Permira. One billion common equity, no guaranteed return, more of a Palantir style consulting venture.”
Jordi Hays Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 21:56 SpaceX’s Lunar Mass Driver, OpenAI Hires Meta’s Top Ad Exec, Zuck Builds CEO Agent | Diet TBPN
Mar 30, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Kim: Nvidia's $25B open-source investment won't compete directly with OpenAI
“It's not a huge, I think it's like twenty five billion over the next few years, which doesn't really compete with what OpenAI and Anthropik are doing.”
Tae Kim Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 8:33 FULL INTERVIEW: Why I Think Nvidia Is Perfectly Positioned In The AI Race
Apr 1, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Claude Code authored 100% of its own commits over 30 days
“In the last 30 days, a hundred percent of the contributions to Cloud Code were written by Cloud Code”
John Coogan Apr 1, 2026 ▶ 18:07 AI Is Coming for Your Memes, Crypto’s Quantum Clock, Axios Hack| Diet TBPN
Apr 1, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Cosgrove: Anthropic is actively using internal model 'Mythos' for development
“Anthropic is actively using Mythos for development.”
Tyler Cosgrove Apr 1, 2026 ▶ 19:38 AI Is Coming for Your Memes, Crypto’s Quantum Clock, Axios Hack| Diet TBPN
Apr 1, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cosgrove: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei opposes open-sourcing models
“He doesn't want to do open source.”
Tyler Cosgrove Apr 1, 2026 ▶ 21:45 AI Is Coming for Your Memes, Crypto’s Quantum Clock, Axios Hack| Diet TBPN
Apr 1, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Cosgrove: Anthropic's 'Capybara' model has a 1M token context window
“Capybara has one million token context window and fast mode.”
Tyler Cosgrove Apr 1, 2026 ▶ 20:03 AI Is Coming for Your Memes, Crypto’s Quantum Clock, Axios Hack| Diet TBPN
Apr 1, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cosgrove: Claude Code source leak will not hurt Anthropic's business
“I don't think this hurts their business at all. Because people are using Claude Code to make other products.”
Tyler Cosgrove Apr 1, 2026 ▶ 16:53 AI Is Coming for Your Memes, Crypto’s Quantum Clock, Axios Hack| Diet TBPN
Apr 7, 2026 positive
Opinion
Laffont: Accredited investor restrictions on top private tech must change
“You know, why is it just like an elite group of funds and accredited investors and so forth and so on? That to me will have to change. And I think it should be bipartisan, frankly.”
Thomas Laffont Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 59:07 FULL INTERVIEW: Thomas Laffont’s Journey From Hollywood Assistant to Legendary Tech Investor
Apr 7, 2026 negative
Insight
Excluding the public from frontier AI equity upside carries severe societal costs
“And I think what we're learning as a society is the cost of not having broad participation is incredibly high. And we'll be. Right. If you have a whole generation of young people that don't own their house and have student debt and don't feel like they're econ…”
Thomas Laffont Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 59:41 FULL INTERVIEW: Thomas Laffont’s Journey From Hollywood Assistant to Legendary Tech Investor
Apr 11, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Grüns connects its data warehouse to Anthropic's Claude for all teams
“We have like all the data infrastructure data warehouse in a place where it's accessible through Claude to our team. So you've got the CX team, you've got the finance team, you've got the marketing team, all like immediately accessible with that information to…”
Chad Janis Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 21:22 Chad Janis: How I Sold Grüns to Unilever for $1.2B
Apr 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2027
US government establishes task force to prevent AI model distillation
“There is new news from Michael Kratzios that the government seems to be taking anthropic and opening eyes messaging around distillation very seriously and is setting up a task force.”
John Coogan Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 10:11 Thoma Bravo Loses Medallia, OpenAI Drops ChatGPT 5.5, Bob Iger Returns | Diet TBPN
May 5, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Midha: AMP invested $300 million into Anthropic
“We put three hundred million dollars into entropic.”
Anjney Midha May 5, 2026 ▶ 11:15 FULL INTERVIEW: Anjney Midha on Fixing AI’s Biggest Bottleneck
May 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Cursor, Anthropic, Meta, and Google Will Buy Cerebras Chips
“Every, every lab that has exploding demand, Cursor, Anthropic Meta, and Google, like, unless they have, like, a direct answer to this, I would see them being a buyer in the near term.”
John Coogan May 12, 2026 ▶ 18:07 Swatch & AP Collab, Cerebras Boosts IPO Price, Trump to Visit China | Diet TBPN
May 22, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Coogan: WSJ reports Anthropic valuation up 173% and Q2 profitability
“Anthropic valuation up a 173% since the start of the year posting profits in Q two, according to the Wall Street Journal open AI evaluation up 67% since the start of the year”
John Coogan May 22, 2026 ▶ 14:47 SpaceX S-1, Anthropic Revenue Booms, OpenAI Cracks Erdős Problem | Diet TBPN
May 26, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Ries: Trust-governed PBCs are roughly five times more likely to reach year 50
“They created something called the long-term benefit trust. Which is like a multi-branch government, right? So you have the for-profit PPC, and then you have the board of directors accountable to a second entity, this outside trust, and the data shows that comp…”
Eric Ries May 26, 2026 ▶ 18:32 The Lean Startup Author on What Ruins Good Companies
May 26, 2026
Disclosure
Ries: Anthropic's founders consulted with me on governance setup
“When the founders of Anthropic left OpenAI, so what is that, like three or four OpenAI crises ago? I can't track. But anyway, it's like hard for me to keep track, but anyways, like it's been a rough, you know, it's been a rocky road. When they left, like I was…”
Eric Ries May 26, 2026 ▶ 16:44 The Lean Startup Author on What Ruins Good Companies
May 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Gerstner: Anthropic and OpenAI will keep growing despite enterprise spend optimization
“Of course, I believe that optimization will continue, but my hunch is that anthropic and open and these companies will continue to grow right through the optimization because the growth curve on penetration of both enterprise and use case is so steep.”
Brad Gerstner May 29, 2026 ▶ 8:32 Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions
May 29, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all token constrained
“Google was token constrained. They said if we had more tokens, we'd be able to generate more revenue. Same for Amazon, same for Microsoft, same from OpenAI, same from Anthropic.”
Brad Gerstner May 29, 2026 ▶ 19:51 Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions
May 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic compute capacity will scale from 3GW to 20GW
“OpenAI and Anthropic combined to start the year had three gigawatts of compute. Three combined. They're gonna end the year closer to 10, and end next year closer to 20.”
Brad Gerstner May 29, 2026 ▶ 20:39 Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions
May 29, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Anthropic is fastest-growing company in history of capitalism
“OpenAI has not blown away their numbers. Google has not blown away their numbers. Like numbers have been good, but the fundamental driver of outperformance in terms of offtake of AI revenues has been Anthropic, which is the fastest growing company in the histo…”
Brad Gerstner May 29, 2026 ▶ 3:12 Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions
May 29, 2026 bullish
What-if
Gerstner: Without Anthropic's revenue, stock market would be down 10-15%
“Had Anthropic not delivered its revenues that it's delivered this year, I think the stock market would be down 10 or 15%.”
Brad Gerstner May 29, 2026 ▶ 3:04 Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions
May 29, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic are Altimeter's largest bets in firm history
“You know, we've really made massive bets, the biggest bets in the history of Altimeter, between OpenAI and Anthropic, which you know, is consuming billions and billions of dollars.”
Brad Gerstner May 29, 2026 ▶ 28:43 Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions
May 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Elon Musk's compute service signed Anthropic as its first major customer
“So that's why Elon has launched EWS, right? Elon Web Services you know, with his computer, you know, signed up a big first customer with Anthropic.”
Brad Gerstner May 29, 2026 ▶ 22:53 Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions
Jun 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC
“Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft S-one registration statement to the SEC June first.”
John Coogan Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 20:16 Google Raises $80B, Confidential IPO 101, OpenAI Expands Codex | Diet TBPN
Jun 16, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: U.S. Export Controls Bar Foreign Nationals From Accessing Anthropic Models
“The US government is restricting both Fable Five and Mythos Five from being used by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the US, including foreign national Anthropic employees, and so that's a huge compliance burden, very sudden, and that led Anthro…”
John Coogan Jun 16, 2026 ▶ 6:32 Anthropic Drama, Meta Now Tokenminning, Fox's $22B Roku Deal | Diet TBPN
Jun 16, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anthropic Suspended Fable 5 Following Commerce Department Directive
“And on June 12th, just five days after the end of the week, Fable Five gets suspended after the Commerce Department issues an export control directive.”
John Coogan Jun 16, 2026 ▶ 6:21 Anthropic Drama, Meta Now Tokenminning, Fox's $22B Roku Deal | Diet TBPN
Jun 16, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: The Information Reported Amazon's Jassy Raised AI Jailbreak Concerns With White House
“Then the information reported that Andy Jassy at Amazon had raised concerns with the senior administration officials about jailbreaking. The risk of jailbreaking fable and getting access to all of Anthropic.”
John Coogan Jun 16, 2026 ▶ 7:21 Anthropic Drama, Meta Now Tokenminning, Fox's $22B Roku Deal | Diet TBPN
Jun 18, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Woo: The AI software race will be won by well-capitalized tech incumbents
“So, I think, in some sense, I think the software game is gonna be won by an OpenAI, Anthropics, SpaceX, Google, maybe about Cognition, and some of these like,”
Jeff Woo Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 23:40 Jake Paul Thinks We'll Live Forever
Jun 27, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Alibaba has repeatedly distilled Anthropic's Claude model
“Anthropix's Alibaba has distilled, clawed many, many times, and I saw a chart of the amount of tokens that are getting resold.”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 22:24 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Jun 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anthropic Halted Mythos After Model Hacked NSA Systems in Red-Teaming
“There was, of course, that news that the NSA commented that Mythos was able to hack into a bunch of their systems. That was during a red teaming exercise. The unprecedented intervention led Anthropik to halt all access to comply with the new rule.”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 27:36 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Jul 16, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Anthropic Shuts Down Millions of Distillation Accounts Per Week
“Anthropic is now shutting down distillation accounts on the order of millions accounts of per week.”
John Coogan Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 7:52 Thinking Machines’ First AI Model, California Loses $3.2B to Texas, TSMC Adds $100B | Diet TBPN
Jul 21, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Judge grants preliminary approval for Anthropic copyright settlement
“Judge William Alsup of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California issued a preliminary approval of the settlement last year after ruling that Anthropic had illegally downloaded and stored millions of copyrighted books, and the settlement w…”
Jordi Hays Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 11:33 U.S. AI Execs Warn as China’s AI Push Grows, Substack Adds AI Detection Tool | Diet TBPN
Jul 21, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Analysts predict OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs within next year
“Some analysis, some analysts who study the AI industry say the two companies which are preparing for public listings in the next year, they just want to eliminate the competition.”
John Coogan Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 1:29 U.S. AI Execs Warn as China’s AI Push Grows, Substack Adds AI Detection Tool | Diet TBPN
Jul 29, 2026 positive
Opinion
Tae Kim: NVIDIA United the Tech Industry Against Anthropic
“I think it's been very impressive what they've been, they've basically united the entire tech industry against Anthropic in the last, like, three, four days.”
Tae Kim Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 7:42 RSI Is Closer Than People Think, Per Tae Kim
Jul 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kim: AI Recursive Self-Improvement Could Arrive Within Nine Months, Massively Draining Compute
“RSI, I think, is a lot closer than people think. And if RSI actually happens in the next three, six, nine months, That's gonna soak up insane amount of compute.”
Tae Kim Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 12:26 RSI Is Closer Than People Think, Per Tae Kim
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Insight
Coogan: Broad model access is fundamentally at odds with preventing distillation
“The whole idea of, like, if the, if an amazing intelligence, an amazing model is made, should it be widely available? That's actually at odds with distillation, because you have to hunt those bad actors down, and you play this whack-a-mole.”
John Coogan Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 20:09 U.S. Bans New Chinese Humanoids, Zuck’s Op-Ed, eBay's $56M Lawsuit | Diet TBPN
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Employees from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Signed AI Pause Letter
“There's this open letter from a bunch of lab employees saying like, hey, maybe we should do a mutual pause. Maybe we should all slow down. And I think even some meta researchers signed that as well, but there's like a wide group from OpenAI, Anthropic, a bunch…”
John Coogan Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 15:05 U.S. Bans New Chinese Humanoids, Zuck’s Op-Ed, eBay's $56M Lawsuit | Diet TBPN
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Shkreli was offered a $100M block of Anthropic stock during liquidations
“And we got offered a look at a hundred million dollars of Anthropic stock, which we were puzzled. Puzzled by, you know, sometimes you see these SPVs, sort of interest comes across you know, here and there, and we thought that was interesting.”
Martin Shkreli Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 3:50 Martin Shkreli Breaks Down the Collapse of Situational Awareness
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shkreli: Aschenbrenner shopped Anthropic stake at $1.1T valuation for liquidity
“And the rumor is over the weekend, he contacted about 10 parties to place Anthropic in an effort to shore up liquidity, selling the Anthropic stake for allegedly the offer was at a 1.1 trillion equivalent market cap which, you know, I think roughly where it's …”
Martin Shkreli Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 6:42 Martin Shkreli Breaks Down the Collapse of Situational Awareness
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Leopold Aschenbrenner is engaged to Anthropic CEO's chief of staff
“He also engaged he's also engaged to Anthropix CEO Dario Amadei's chief of staff.”
John Coogan Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 3:24 The Collapse of Situational Awareness, Ferrari Luce Stays on Track for 2026 | Diet TBPN
Aug 5, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Google becomes Anthropic's largest financial backer through compute lease guarantees
“Obviously Google has made it, you know, massive bet on anthropic and is, You know, becoming their largest financial backer, especially through some new reporting on, on some of the lease guarantees that they're doing.”
Jordi Hays Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 8:53 Demis Is Out as DeepMind CEO, Revolut Founder Yacht Drama, AI’s Great Reverse Bank Run | Diet TBPN
Aug 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Anthropic accuses major Chinese AI labs of distilling its Claude model
“Anthropic has accused DeepSeek, Moonshot, Minimax, ZAI, Alibaba, all of distilling Claude”
John Coogan Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 28:53 Demis Is Out as DeepMind CEO, Revolut Founder Yacht Drama, AI’s Great Reverse Bank Run | Diet TBPN
Aug 8, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Google's ownership stake in Anthropic is contractually capped at 15 percent
“Google's ownership in anthropic is capped at 15%. They, I believe, have roughly 14%.”
Jordi Hays Aug 8, 2026 ▶ 29:13 AI-Designed Viruses, OpenAI’s First Device, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Aug 8, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Google holds no voting rights or board seats in Anthropic
“They don't have any voting rights. They don't even, they're not even a board observer. They don't have a board seat. They basically are just a purely financial background.”
Jordi Hays Aug 8, 2026 ▶ 29:24 AI-Designed Viruses, OpenAI’s First Device, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Aug 14, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Anthropic is in talks to acquire Descartes for $6 billion
“Anthropic is apparently in talks to buy Descartes for six billion dollars.”
Jordi Hays Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 22:47 North Korea’s Secret US Workforce, Canceling the SaaSpocalypse, MSL’s Latest Exits | Diet TBPN
Aug 15, 2026
Opinion
Coogan: AI startup equity is fueling a Bay Area real estate surge
“One factor is the enormous amount of new wealth being created by the AI boom as employees at companies like OpenAI, Ananthropic, turn startup equity into fortunes, and pour some of that money into local real estate.”
John Coogan Aug 15, 2026 ▶ 28:01 Tesla’s Roadster, Car Week Takes, Unwell Beverages Shuts Down | Diet TBPN
Aug 15, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Hays: Leadership scrutiny disrupts Anthropic's moral brand positioning
“If anything, it feels like it disrupts Some of the brand positioning around morality makes that maybe less effective.”
Jordi Hays Aug 15, 2026 ▶ 16:53 Tesla’s Roadster, Car Week Takes, Unwell Beverages Shuts Down | Diet TBPN
Sep 4, 2026 positive
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2026
Coogan: Claude Fable 5.1 achieved highest-ever AI index score
“Fable 5.1 get the highest result ever on the index. The scores also have Opus five, which got 63, and Fable, which got a 62.”
John Coogan Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 4:07 Model Mayhem, GPT-6 Astra, Why Nvidia Bought Hugging Face | Diet TBPN
Sep 4, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anthropic replaces no-ZDR policy with Enterprise Frontier Safeguards
“The no zero data retention, no ZDR is going to be replaced with something called EFS enterprise frontier safeguards. And that may have attributed, may have contributed to lower Fable adoption among enterprises.”
John Coogan Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 5:18 Model Mayhem, GPT-6 Astra, Why Nvidia Bought Hugging Face | Diet TBPN
Sep 4, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic Enterprise Revenue Comes from 1% of Customers
“OpenAI Ananthropic, 80% of their enterprise revenue comes from just one percent of the companies.”
John Coogan Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 7:02 Model Mayhem, GPT-6 Astra, Why Nvidia Bought Hugging Face | Diet TBPN
Sep 10, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2031
Hays: Rival frontier AI labs will eventually collaborate to pace development
“Pacing the frontier, collaborating with other labs. I'm oddly optimistic that this will happen. Obviously, you know, there's the Sam and Dario can't even hold hands on stage in that India conference, but AI has made strange bedfellows out of people.”
Jordi Hays Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 30:27 Apple’s iPhone Duo, Meta’s Muse AI Agent, Anthropic Researcher Quits Over AI Doom | Diet TBPN
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