Nov 3, 2020 · 47m · startups-for-the-rest-of-us
Episode 521 | A Roundtable Discussion about a Potential Recession, Working from Home,
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Rob Walling, Tracy Osborn, and Einar Vollset host a news roundtable discussing macroeconomic recession indicators for SaaS, the Google antitrust lawsuit, remote work shifts, venture capital regulations, and employer review credibility.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Rob holds 53.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Rob as informed peer 6.5 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 1.5 Rob pushing back 1.5
speaking balance: gold is Rob, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 21:51 Einar pushes back on full-remote tech dogmatism
Einar dissents from the prevailing tech narrative that physical offices are going the way of the dodo, arguing that extroverts will push for a post-pandemic in-person return.
Hardest push from Rob ▶ 11:40 Rob separates stock market gains from ground-level SaaS realityRob rejects Einar's reliance on big tech stock market indices as an indicator of general business health, re-centering the analysis on bootstrapped cash flow.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 36:48 Einar details the counterintuitive 1,999-investor rule for qualified purchasersEinar clarifies securities law nuances, explaining how funds can accept smaller checks from ultra-wealthy qualified purchasers while being legally restricted to 99 accredited investors.
Rob holds their own ▶ 16:59 Rob articulates Google's anti-competitive search ad extractionRob demonstrates deep technical and marketing domain expertise by walking through Google's shift to 'not provided' search terms as an anticompetitive monetization play.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Rob as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Rob pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyzing Potential Economic Recession and Startup Growth Trends | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Rob draws on portfolio data across dozens of angel and accelerator investments to assess whether growth is slowing down. When Einar brings up public stock market indices, Rob gently redirects the discussion back to the realities of bootstrapped SaaS cash management and operational risk. | |
| Examining the Google Antitrust Lawsuit and Search Monopoly | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Rob provides an extensive, detailed history of how Google systematically stripped keyword data from organic analytics to force startups into buying search ads. The panel is fully aligned and mutually reinforces each other's points about big tech platform risk. | |
| Remote Work Evolution and Commercial Real Estate Aftershocks | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Rob details how his previous company managed hybrid office schedules to balance maker time with collaboration. Einar offers a slight contrarian perspective as an extrovert predicting an eventual in-person backlash, which the panel explores collaboratively. | |
| The Mechanics of SPACs and Fund Investor Limitations | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Rob and Einar breakdown the regulatory barriers that prevent small profitable software companies from going public compared to overseas markets. Einar explains the mechanics of SPACs and educates the panel on the perverse disparity between accredited investors and qualified purchasers. |
Statements from this episode (11)
Walling: SaaS Growth Decelerates During Mid-April Tax Day and December
“I would see dips, usually dips in growth, especially if it was SaaS, right? It wasn't the revenue dropped, but it was the growth would slightly decelerate. We get fewer signups right around tax day in the US, so mid-April, and then around December.”
Walling: 35 TinySeed and personal portfolio companies show no growth slowdown
“Between TinySeed and my independent stuff, I have 35 investments, and I'm not hearing that they're slowing down. I'm not seeing plateaus across the board, or slowing across the board.”
Osborn: Google's broad footprint slows startup innovation across tech
“I feel like Google being in all these areas and being, having its fingers in everything is slowing or preventing some amount of startup innovation in those spaces.”
Walling: Google restricted keyword data to force businesses into buying ads
“Well, they pulled it out, and it was, they give some bullsh**t excuse about it being privacy. First, it was only, it was like if, only if it was over SSL, and then they just rolled it out to everything. And what it did is it forced you to buy ads from them. Be…”
Vollset: Tech workers will drive a permanent shift to hybrid work
“I do think there'll be a fundamental shift in sort of the expectation. I think probably mostly from the employee side and it'll probably start with like tech companies and things and then trickle down where it's like, okay, Maybe they'll be there a portion of …”
Vollset: Commercial real estate is in severe trouble, especially in California
“I think, in general, commercial real estate is a bit screwed. Particularly in California, if, like, Prop 15 passes with the tax increases and things, I don't know what they're going to do.”
Vollset: SPACs Will Become an Increasingly Popular Path to Going Public
“My view is that that's sort of a symptom of, like, how complicated and how long it's taking for all these companies to go public. And so I think we'll start to see more and more of that trend.”
Walling: US VC Funds Over $10M Are Capped at 99 Accredited Investors
“If you raise a, essentially a venture fund, which is what Tiny Seed's raising, and you have, you're raising more than ten million dollars, the highest number of investors you can have in that fund, these are accredited investors, who are, you know, loosely eit…”
Osborn: 2018 Law Raised Investor Limit to 250 Only for Sub-$10M Funds
“In 2018, President Trump signed, I think it was like a startup act or whatever, that was hopefully to solve this problem between 99 investors being allowed to invest to be in a fund by opening it up to 250, if I recall, But that only applies to funds that rais…”
Osborn: People will use Glassdoor less as review manipulation becomes obvious
“And I think what's going to happen just like Yelp, I think people are going to be using it less now that these things are coming more to the forefront.”
Walling: Early-stage hiring founders should proactively build a Glassdoor profile
“The danger is, is if you don't have a profile, someone leaves and they write a negative review and your only review is negative. So I would consider having some type of presence on Glassdoor if you are going to be doing hiring. And you do have at least, you kn…”