The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 467 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Isenberg: Hugging Face Is Currently Seeking a $13 Billion Acquisition
“I think they're trying to get acquired right now at thirteen billion dollars.”
Schneider: Autonomous agents can now run entire Facebook ad campaigns end-to-end
“You can make an agent entirely run Facebook ads now. And I'm talking about like, it is researching the pain points. It is researching the outcomes of your target customer. It's making creative that's on brand, both statics and also like AI avatar UGC. It's pub…”
US government letter forced Anthropic to shut down Claude Fable 5
“Then Friday at five 21 PM, the US government sent Anthropic a letter. And by Friday night, the model was gone. Disabled.”
Ross Mike: LLMs degrade in performance once context fills past 70-80%
“Cause the model will get dumb as the context window closes, right? So if you have like a context window and I can draw this out, if this is your context window and like the optimal is You're between, like, there's always, like, maybe, like, 10% is already fill…”
Moritz Kremb: OpenAI permits OpenClaw OAuth connections while Anthropic officially bans them
“Because OpenAI has stated that they're okay with it. So for them, it's definitely fine to use this OAuth method with Anthropic. It's kind of a gray area a bit. I think officially in their terms of service, it says you're not allowed to do that.”
Moritz Kremb: Anthropic is banning users for connecting OpenClaw via OAuth
“And some people have been getting banned over it. So I do recommend that if you, if you're scared about your account getting banned, just create a new one, create a new account and put the 20 dollar plan on that.”
Greg Isenberg: Jensen Huang called OpenClaw the most important software release ever
“He said that Open Claw is probably the single most important release of software probably ever.”
Wilkinson: Chris Anderson is currently shopping TED for sale
“You know, Ted is for sale right now. Maybe you should buy that. Is that for real? Yeah, it's for, I think it's public knowledge right now. They're shopping it around and he's going to give it, I think he's going to give it away to whoever is going to be the be…”
Senra: Spotify added 2M subscribers during Joe Rogan controversy
“And then his subscriber count over the few weeks went up. He added two million new subscribers”
Pal: Only tech stocks and crypto beat the Fed balance sheet expansion
“There's only two things that outperformed the Fed balance sheet over the last, since 2008. Only two asset classes. One was technology stocks, and the other was crypto.”
Demirors: Ethereum has been rolled back and is not truly immutable
“The Ethereum network has been rolled back. Ethereum's not immutable. These other chains are not immutable, right?”
Mike: Peter burned $1.3M in AI tokens in one month on loops
“The one argument I'll fight back with is this is going to burn a lot of tokens, and if you don't believe me, all you have to do is look at Peter's tweet, where in one month he burnt 1.3 million dollars worth of tokens.”
Isenberg: YC Predicts Over 300 Vertical AI Unicorns Will Emerge This Decade
“YC predicts that there's going to be 300 plus unicorns in vertical AI in, in, in, you know, this decade.”
Henry: Ernesto Lopez scaled apps to over $70K MRR using Larry Brain
“Ernesto Lopez has used Larry brain to scale to over 70,000 MRR. He's implemented it in his apps using his already created content creation. He's implemented the Larry loop to improve the content he was already creating and will Was already winning, and he's ha…”
Linton: GPT-5.3 Codex beat Opus 4.6 on SWE-bench Pro and TerminalBench
“Five, five, three codecs did win on SWD bench pro terminal bench overall. It's like scored better on coding benchmarks. So probably better end end app generation.”
Kevin Rose: Gemini Search Grounding Bypasses Scraper Blocks on Sites Like Reddit
“Oftentimes they won't come out and say this, but they kind of crawl the article and give you back what the article actually says. And they might reword it a little bit, but it's largely what the article says. And I can prove that because they can, you can do t…”
Kerner: 51% of Social Media Purchases Happen on Facebook Marketplace
“51% of all recent social media purchases, so like not Amazon, social media purposes, all happened on Facebook Marketplace, ok?”
Reports indicate AI software builder Lovable is raising at a $2B valuation
“Well, yesterday I think it was leaked that lovable is raising at a two billion dollar valuation.”
GenSpark reached $36M ARR in 45 days, adding almost $1M daily
“Then they launched the agent platform about two months ago. It hit ten million ARR in nine days. Now they're at thirty six million ARR in 45 days. They're basically adding almost a million dollars a day in ARR.”
Sam Altman predicts 'idea guys' will soon dominate the startup industry
“He just posted on his blog. He says for a long time, technical people in the startup industry Have made fun of idea guys. People who've had an idea and were looking for a team to build it. It now looks to me like they are about to have their day in the sun.”
Meng To: No other AI design tool offers real-time live previews
“And also I already had like the life The live preview as you generate. So nobody else has that, by the way. When you're generating, it's going to live preview everything you're doing. You don't have to wait like five minutes for something to show up.”
Isenberg: Cal AI is generating $30M a year in revenue
“The popular example right now is like Cal AI. And I've had those guys on the podcast that they're doing thirty million dollars a year.”
Al-Abdullah: Harvard study found equity grants do not increase performance
“Harvard did a study where they actually found no market increase in performance when they landed equity to individuals.”
Isenberg: MrBeast is raising $150M at a $1.5B valuation for CPG products
“Mr. Beast is raising a hundred and fifty million dollars at I think a 101.5 billion dollar valuation? And he's doing it to double down on his CPG products.”
Josephs: Autopilot planted a fake Nancy Pelosi at a UFC fight
“We literally did send a fake Pelosi to the fight. She was sitting there in the front row with Mike Malak. There's all these pieces of content around her. The New York post already kind of took it up. They created an article about it.”
Isenberg: MrBeast's leaked manual promises exceptional employees will get rich
“He basically says that he's going to make you rich. If you do well and you create, you know, you're exceptional at what you do you will be rich if you work for Mr. Beast, basically is what he's saying. And you'll make more money Than you could ever dream of ma…”
Goli offers Rolexes, Lamborghinis, and Miami condos to top TikTok Shop affiliates
“Their incentive package for affiliates going into Q four is insane. Well, I mean, my incentive package is basically if you generate enough GMV, like the market value of sales there, it's like Rolex, Lamborghini, a condo in Miami, night at Amangiri. Like that's…”
Schneider: Wind energy is now cheaper than natural gas
“It's already cheaper than natural gas and natural gas. It looks like can't go cheaper. So what's going to naturally happen in the market and solar still getting cheaper.”
Spartz: Automated weapons systems have already taken over lethal decision-making
“There's tons of weapons systems you already have that like, there's no human that decides like the robots decide for us. Like they shoot down the missile before we even have time to react, you know? So we've already given up the Like kill switch to the machine…”
Pal: Crypto hedge funds hold just $4B compared to $57B in VC
“VC space is crowded with fifty seven billion going in in the last 15 months. Hedge fund space, the entire size of the hedge fund space, four billion. There is, the secondary market in crypto is entirely starved of capital.”
Bloom: FTX reached agreement to acquire BlockFi for up to $240M
“FTX is now, you know, under a definitive agreement to acquire block five for like, I don't really care how, you know, the CEO positioned it, you know, with the revolving line of credit, that's not really enterprise value. It's not like buying the equity, but l…”
Bloom: US real estate depreciation lets multi-millionaires pay zero income tax
“We have friends who are like literally making multiple millions of dollars of cash income a year and paying zero dollars in taxes because they have all this depreciation off their real estate portfolios. It's like a well-known loophole that was created by the …”
Bloom: Only 2% of Spotify artists earn over $1,000 annually
“Only two percent of Spotify artists are earning more than 1000 dollars a year, and one 10th of one percent.1%, are earning over a hundred K per year.”
Finkelstein: Shopify GMV ranks second behind Amazon in US online retail
“If you pretend we were retailer, we would be the second largest online retailer in America after Amazon.”
Blizzard Nerfing a WoW Warlock Spell Inspired Vitalik to Create Ethereum
“Vitalik the creator of Ethereum he was a warlock in World of Warcraft, and Blizzard nerfing Siphon Life was one of the reasons that he decided to make Ethereum. He was like mad that the centralized group, like had the control to nerf something. So he was like,…”
Bloom: Alexis Ohanian’s VC firm uses internal software Cerebro to gamify value-add
“Alexis Ohanian has at seven, seven, six, they have this internal proprietary software they built out called Cerebro. I think it's called like Star Trek reference that manages like all of their internal stuff. And one of the portals is this like value add, like…”
Ohanian: Reddit grew yearly for five years despite zero product investment
“Like, Reddit for five years between, I left in 2010, I came back in early, you know, late 14 as exec chair, had Almost no investment by con and asked in the product. The product didn't improve for half a decade, barely stayed online. Okay. There's no business …”
Sam Parr: Residential real estate barely beats inflation, returning 3.5% annually
“I believe the trailing hundred years, homes have grown something like three and a half percent a year, so they barely keep up with inflation, so I think homes are a wonderful place to Store value that keep up with inflation and they cause forced savings, but i…”
Miller: Y Combinator's ratio of B2B to B2C startups has skyrocketed
“If you look at the YC splits right now when I was working with YC when I was at AWS compared to now, the ratio of B to B versus B to C has skyrocketed. Like there's just not as many B to C companies in these incubators getting built.”
Schneider: Meta's Andromeda Analyzes Multimodal Creative and Landing Pages
“So Andromeda is Facebook's new like ad algorithm, right? It basically, it decides what ads get shown to what people and how it functions is the AI is basically looking at the ad creative. And it's understanding, okay, like what is in this static ad? What is th…”
Dan Shipper: Codex Chronicle captures local screenshots for user context
“Like, one of the interesting things about Codex is it has this thing called Chronicle, which is it automatically takes screenshots of your computer and locally turns it into locally turns it into a, Feed that gives it context on who you are and what you're doi…”
Brown: Codex autonomously built and played its own chess game
“And so, in my video, it did this in one prompt. I said, build a chess game, then use browser use to test the game and play yourself until one team wins. And that's what it did in one shot”
Isenberg: Gartner projects AI agents will drive 20% of commerce by 2030
“I saw that Gartner had a research report that said, 20% of commerce will, on the internet by 20 30 will be agents, meaning like agents are buying things.”
Ross Mike: Agent skills load only metadata initially to conserve tokens
“What, when you create a skill.md file, what gets added into the context is actually just the name and the description. Right? The bunch of info doesn't get added. So imagine you have two sentences versus an agent.md that has like a thousand lines that get adde…”
AutoResearch requires an NVIDIA chip or cloud GPU, excludes M1 Macs
“You need a NVIDIA chip to actually run auto research, or you can do it in the cloud. I'll talk about this at the end of the episode, but you know, you do need that. You can't just run it on, let's say you have a Mac book M one or something like that.”
Schneider: Clay.com coined 'GTM engineering' for outbound data enrichment workflows
“So this is actually like made up by clay.com, which is hilarious. And they originally did it as like a way to explain somebody that like does basically like cascading workflows for like data enrichment to do outbound sales motions over email or slack, or, you …”
Chu: APlaceForMom.com takes first month's rent or fixed fees for referrals
“And they basically have all of these kind of sneaky ways to collect information and then pass them off to these senior living homes where they collect a portion of the first month's rent or like a fixed fee for every referral that they give.”