The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,791 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kahl: Founders may bond more with AI agents than human co-founders
“I think we might even create bonds between founders and AI agents that are stronger than between founders and other founders because all this social tension between co-founders that is often quite strong, particularly when it's crunch time or when Runway is ru…”
Crivello: Future service businesses will be one founder and AI armies
“But yeah, I mean, in the limit, it's going to be one dude. Well, there happened to be two, but it's going to be one dude and an army of AI recruiters. And that company can scale infinitely with compute, basically. It's just with LLMs.”
Rush: Google counts viral social media backlinks more than website links
“Google, they don't say so, but they do this. I know for sure they look at backlinks from social media. And if there is a good tweet with a lot of views and there is your link there, it's so valuable. And in that particular case, it was like fifth or 50th time …”
Chaudry: Future markets will place a premium on inefficiency
“My hypothesis about the future is that there will be a premium on inefficiency.”
Schneider: Corporations will inevitably adopt synthetic AI brand spokespersons
“It's going to trickle down into, like, direct-to-consumer, and then that trickles down into B to B, and, like, this is an inevitability that will happen over time. Like, imagine, like, a corporation, right? Like, a Torture Would kill for this. They're like, yo…”
98% of middle schools will require locked phone pouches within 10 years
“My guess is in 10 years, 98% of middle schools are requiring people to put their phone in a pouch and lock it during the day.”
Isenberg: Top 1% of artists will earn 100x more next decade
“The top one percent of artists are going to make a hundred times more
In the next 10 years than they will in the previous, because there's going to be such demand for curated experiences.”
Postma predicts programmatic AI SEO directories will become saturated within two years
“And this is probably not even going to work in two years in the world. Cause all these niches are going to be found. They're going to be filled in by people just doing all these things. Cause it's all highly automated, right?”
Pujji: Niche financial intelligence data provider is easily a $10M EBITDA business
“Basically go through the biggest public companies and you create information that the investment in hedge fund world uses. And I think that's Easily a ten million EBITDA business. Maybe more.”
Goldstein: Linear will replace Jira and Trello in large enterprises
“They are killing Trello. They're killing Jira. They're going to replace those in even large enterprises as well, and they didn't have to build the craziest, most advanced stuff.”
Courtney: Burnt-out teachers pay $38,000 annually for career transition coaching
“Teachers pay 38,000 dollars, usually spread out over the 12 months.”
Zuckerberg launched Facebook's Like button after dinners with Kevin Rose
“Facebook introduced the like button about a year later, I'd had multiple dinners with Zuckerberg talking about social voting and things like that.”
Iverson: Tech design disciplines will increasingly collapse into efficient hybrid roles
“So I think the disciplines are going to collapse more. I mean, economy capitalist society, things are efficient. And so it's gonna find the most efficient way to get things done, which is often like a hybrid PM designer or a hybrid. Designer marketer or a hybr…”
Cole: The next major publisher will be a single AI-trained author
“So one of mine is I think that the next Simon and Schuster or Penguin Random House or whatever is going to be one individual that builds, I mean, one author, but has like a whole team. So the, an author is being treated like a venture backed startup and the te…”
Karnjanaprakorn: Failing startups will merge with one another to survive
“I think we'll start seeing you know, not just within those businesses, but startups that are kind of failing, merging with other startups that are failing to survive. I think we'll just see a lot of M and a activity and not, it won't be big tech company buying…”
Karnjanaprakorn: Creators will sell fine-tuned AI agents instead of traditional online courses
“So I think the new thing creators do instead of like courses, like asynchronous courses or cohort courses, it's a for 10 dollars a month. Like you can learn from me and I'm constantly updating the model and fine tuning it and you can learn directly from me.”
Isenberg: DoNotPay generates $5M in monthly revenue after raising $10M
“So they've raised ten million dollars and doing at least five million dollars a month in revenue.”
Ries: Facebook buried internal scientific research proving its products cause depression
“Facebook even commissioned the scientific research to find out if their product makes people depressed. And then they found out that it does. And they were like, oh, better bury that. Instead of take it seriously and do something about it.”
Isenberg: Top writers like Sahil Bloom make $5M a year
“Like, you used to get paid 50,000 dollars to write, and now the greatest writers, Sahil Blooms and the Nick Hubers, are getting paid five million dollars a year to write.”
Pompliano: Very Few One-Person Companies Will Ever Reach $100M in Revenue
“I don't think that we are going to see very many one person companies reach significant scale measured in nine figures of revenue.”
Isenberg: Paper-rich founders face brutal recapitalizations within six to nine months
“There's a bunch of founders that right now that are worth a lot on paper that are going to have crazy headwinds, like within the next six to nine months. Because they're going to have to recap their companies and that the founders are, they're going to realize…”
Nickson: Open source will prevail as AI's winning foundational layer
“I'm a big believer that open source will prevail and that'll be sort of like the winning Foundational layer that AI is going to be built on top of”
Nickson: Prompt engineering is a fleeting trend, soon comparable to Googling
“I actually, I'm not as bullish on the idea of a prompt engineer as most, right? I think it'll be like knowing how to use Google or Excel. It's just like a particular skill that'll be helpful. But no, I think the pro I mean, like one of our main ambitions too, …”
Nickson: Standalone AI tools face major threat from incumbent software integration
“I think the most fierce competition are going to be the incumbents, you know, like a lot of this technology is going to be built into the products that we know and love and use today. Right. So eventually like you know, even, even mid journey, I think they're …”
Sharma: Every DTC cookware brand I know does over $100M revenue
“Every cookware brand I know is doing over a hundred million dollars in revenue.”
Rogenmoser: AI will enhance over 90% of white-collar workflows within five years
“I'd say over 90%. Maybe 95%.”
Rogenmoser: Proprietary data moats in AI are dubious long-term
“Even the data stuff, which is probably the most like compelling, or at least the moat, the most moat like thing. We're going to hear that. They go, yeah, yeah, that there's a moat there. Like even that I think is dubious long-term. If there's a ton of value, t…”
Rogenmoser: Incumbents must rebuild products from scratch or face disruption
“Like over the next five years, you gotta go back to first principles and think, you know, is this really the best way to do this at all given the new technology? And I think sometimes it will be and like slapping it on. Will work. I think many times it's going…”
Greathouse Fall: Personalized AI will make Google and Meta look like tinkertoys
“So when it has a personal relationship with the person who's running it, that's going to be the next big watershed moment. I think that's what's going to make like Google and Facebook look like tinker toys.”
Spartz: In every domain, AI will evolve from tool to boss
“So in every domain, like AI starts off as a tool and then it goes up through the four levels. And so that's the thing to keep an eye on, is like, in, in your industry, if AI is starting off as a tool right now, eventually it'll become an assistant, then it'll …”
Spartz: Top EDM ghost-producer secretly sold one-third AI tracks in 2019
“I was doing AI music like four years ago and the biggest like EDM ghost producing website, which were, which is, they were responsible for like a large percentage of all EDM tracks. And they were selling secretly a third of all of their tracks were AI generate…”
Spartz: A large percentage of future influencers and relationships will be AI
“In a world where all the influencers are, you know, AI, they're not human anymore, or, like, a large percentage of them, rather, are AI influencers. A large percentage of all relationships online become with AIs because the AI can be tailored.”
Postma: Shutterstock Could Replace All Its Photographers With AI by 2025
“But I think someone is probably Shutterstock is going to do this really well because they have like the whole database of photos, right? They could literally, I think in two years, put all their photographers out of a job and just have an AI generate the photo…”
Lavingia: Engineers and designers are 2-3x cheaper than 6 months ago
“Like engineers are cheaper. They're easier to hire. Designers are cheaper, easier to hire. And that's all I need. I don't actually don't need anything else. Those are the two most valuable, you know, resources on the planet. And now they're, you know, they're …”
Lavingia: Every digital-output job will be replaced by AI prediction
“Basically any job in which your output is digital you know, I see that, that, that will kind of be replaced with basically a computer predicting what that human would be outputting.”
Sahil Lavingia: Neural interfaces will 100% eliminate pain and treat depression
“We will, 100% basically be able to, you know, get rid of pain probably, you know, short circuit depression, like, all these sorts of things we will be able to do without needing to know exactly what, you know, we'll know the math, because you can look into thi…”
Lavingia: Physical traits will not matter in human society in 100 years
“Any privilege associated with anything else, height or body mass or, you know, fast switch muscle fibers basically is not going to matter a hundred years from now.”
Lavingia: AI investors may make almost no money over the next decade
“I could a hundred percent see that like 10 years from now, there's no way to make money in AI, right? Like basically nobody made any money on AI. All the returns basically just went to, you know, whoever like basically gets attention so that they can monetize …”
Lavingia: Over 90% of startup value comes from engineer-founded giants
“If you look at startups and you say, okay, 99% of the public value is basically, or 90 plus percent is basically in four or five companies. Right? If you get rid of, like, Google, Amazon, Meta, like, we haven't done shit as an industry, right? In terms of actu…”
Lavingia: No non-technical founder uninterested in coding has built a $10B company
“I can't think of a single example of someone who is non-technical, doesn't have any interest in knowing how to code, and has built a ten billion dollar company.”
Isenberg: Meta's heavily criticized metaverse investments will actually pay off long-term
“And I think that over the longterm, I actually think that a lot of these metaverse bets are going to play Play in the favor of meta.”
Huber: Persistent high interest rates will bankrupt many real estate syndicators
“And if this keeps up and interest rates stay high for another couple of years, It'll be no different this time, and a lot of people who do what I do and raise money from outside investors will go bankrupt, and the people who invested the money will lose the mo…”
Rief: Feastables might become a billion-dollar brand within a year
“So that right there in a year might be a billion dollar brand alone.”
Rief: Morning Brew has 4.5M daily subscribers and no newsletter will match it
“We have four and a half million subscribers to our daily, and I don't think anyone will get there.”
Tossell: Prompt engineering will become worthless as AI models abstract it
“I don't think prompt engineering is actually valuable, a valuable thing, because I believe all these models and all these tools will actually, like, abstract that away anyway.”
Tossell: A two-person company will generate hundreds of millions by 2027
“We'll have a company pulling in like hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, and it'll be like one or two people actually running that, that company.”
David Perell: Modern education ignores 70 to 80 years of learning science
“None of the learning science that has come out in the last 70 to 80 years has actually been implemented.”
Pal: The majority of the English-speaking internet will soon be Indian
“Soon, the majority of the English speaking internet will be Indian. So, and he explains an apparent and a little bit after that is that the conversations you have online, the highest probability is that they will be Indians. They will not be Americans. They'll…”