why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rief: Morning Brew has 4.5M daily subscribers and no newsletter will match it
“We have four and a half million subscribers to our daily, and I don't think anyone will get there.”
Insight
Rief: Replacing the Founders as Daily Writers Was Morning Brew's Best Decision
“I think that was the best decision we made, which is, was to replace ourselves. We realized we could speak in the tone. We can converse in the tone. We could write a couple of sentences in the tone, but day in, day out, we couldn't write that tone across a ful…”
Insight
Rief: Media cannot charge for general content, only community and career mobility
“I said, no, I think it's really tough to charge people unless you have a serious level of expertise or you're going very niche. Or your, the New York Times, the Washington Post, you have a hundred or 200 year old brands. I said, but I would charge people for c…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rief: Multi-million subscriber general news newsletters are unlikely to emerge
“And of course I say this and there will be, but I don't think there will be many more multimillion person reader general News, general business news, email newsletters that, you know, are standalone companies, whether they're bootstrapped or VC backed. I just,…”
Assertion Supported
Denk: Morning Brew's referral program drove over one million total subscribers
“I built the referral program back at morning brew that worked extremely well. It led to over a million subscribers from morning brew today.”
Opinion
Lieberman: A massive Morning Brew-style daily sports newsletter remains unbuilt
“I don't think there's like the go-to daily sports newsletter that And I think to have a head start with Sports Illustrated's list, whether or not I would even have to use the brand, like, it's actually kind of irrelevant to me. Like, if I could just get the li…”
Insight
Rief: Advertisers will pay for 300 subscribers if they are CEOs
“If you have the right 300 subscribers, people will pay to get in front of them.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rief: AI will make top copywriters significantly more valuable
“I think the second thing is it only makes great copywriting more important. It makes great, great copywriting super unique. And I think it's going to make the best copywriters worth so much more because when there's more content out there and there's more cont…”
Insight
Rief: Cross-promoting in other newsletters yields highest-quality subscriber growth
“The best or one of the best ways to grow a newsletter is to promote yourself in other newsletters. We saw that our cross promotion had our highest quality subscribers. So we'd run ads in other newsletters and those subscribers Would click more, they'd read mor…”
Assertion Supported
Rief: Morning Brew is a $70 million advertising business
“And we, you know, and again, it's all relative to a seventy million dollar ad business. So if you sell half a million dollars of swag a year and that's your cap, the question's like, well, you know, it's nice, but it's not going to move the needle.”
Insight
Rief: Short-form video is hard to monetize with ads and must be cheap
“For us, short form is important, but it's hard to monetize. And so you have to do short form in a really inexpensive way. And so either you need to take long form. And make it in short form, right? So take a podcast, clip this up, and put it all over TikTok. T…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rief: Sam Parr and I Were Not Friends Until Selling Our Businesses
“Yeah, so we weren't friends until we sold our businesses, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: Morning Brew makes around $100M a year in revenue
“Morning brew, for example, is, I think they make like a hundred million dollars a year or something like that.”