why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Kerner: Facebook Marketplace APIs Allow Third-Party Apps to Be Built
“I've already looked into it. Don't tell me the API permissions don't allow for it because they do.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ries: Facebook buried internal scientific research proving its products cause depression
“Facebook even commissioned the scientific research to find out if their product makes people depressed. And then they found out that it does. And they were like, oh, better bury that. Instead of take it seriously and do something about it.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lavingia: Over 90% of startup value comes from engineer-founded giants
“If you look at startups and you say, okay, 99% of the public value is basically, or 90 plus percent is basically in four or five companies. Right? If you get rid of, like, Google, Amazon, Meta, like, we haven't done shit as an industry, right? In terms of actu…”
Prediction Held up
Isenberg: Meta stock will outperform over the next one to three years
“And I feel like, I don't know, a year, two, three years from now, like, I feel like they're gonna ship some stuff, and some of it's gonna work. So I'm a, I think I think the stock will outperform. That's what I think.”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: Meta's Andromeda Analyzes Multimodal Creative and Landing Pages
“So Andromeda is Facebook's new like ad algorithm, right? It basically, it decides what ads get shown to what people and how it functions is the AI is basically looking at the ad creative. And it's understanding, okay, like what is in this static ad? What is th…”
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: Average Facebook CPM is around six dollars
“The average CPM on Facebook is about six dollars, depending on which category you're in.”
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: Wish hit a billion-dollar valuation in 18 months via cheap Facebook ads
“Wish.com became a billion dollar company in like 18 months with Facebook ads in the early days. And the reason is you could get, like, one cent link clicks on Facebook ads, and there was nobody else running ads to, like, cheap shit that was being basically imp…”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Facebook Groups still has a billion active users
“There's still a billion active users in Facebook groups”
Assertion Partly supported
Isenberg: Nikita Bier launched TBH as a hail Mary before Facebook sale
“And he ended up as like a hail Mary launching TBH. It ends up going viral and like tens of millions of people download it and ends up selling to Facebook, like for tens of millions of dollars, like a couple months later.”
Assertion Contradicted
Spartz: 'Stay Home, Save Lives' Facebook frame was most viral ever
“I made in Two hours of work. I made a viral Facebook photo frame. It was like a circle around your head that said stay home, save lives, which if you're on Facebook, you would have seen it because hundreds of millions of people used it. And it was the most vir…”
Assertion Partly supported
Ball: Persistent Metaverse Requires a 1,000x Increase in Computing Power
“In strict technical terms, the general consensus advocated by folks at Intel and Meta is a thousand factor increase in computing power. We are up about a hundred since 2000. So we need a thousand on top of that.”
Assertion Supported
Bloom: Meta estimated Apple's ATT would cause a $10B hit in 2022
“Basically, this was, it was ten billion dollars that was gonna be the impact to Facebook in 20, 22 was what they said on the earnings call, which, as he pointed out, is a, it's a pricing change because it's the level of price you can charge to the advertisers,…”
Assertion Supported
Kerner: Facebook Reels allows clickable comment links unlike Instagram
“In Instagram, key differentiator, you can, there are no clickable links in the comments. On Facebook, there are.”
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: Facebook Ads Allows Targeting the Top 1% of Income Earners Locally
“So on Facebook, you can actually target people that have like, you know, they're the top one percent of income earners within a geographical area. And then you can combine that with an audience audience interest targeting.”
Assertion Supported
Bloom: Meta suffered the largest single-day market value wipeout in history
“Facebook announces earnings lat last week and basically plunges like 26% or something like that on the back of it. It erased two hundred fifty billion dollars of market value in a single day. It was the largest single day wipeout of market value in history eve…”
Assertion Supported
Melker: College Story About Donald Trump Jr. Became National News
“I went viral for writing a story on my Facebook page about Donald Trump Jr. When we went to college together, which was screenshot and became national news.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: 'View From My Window' Group Has 3.6M Members
“There's three, there's almost 3.6 million members and it's still growing. It grew to 6000 members just this week alone.”