why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Yadegari: AI chatbot apps differentiate on prompting, not UI design
“This is another thing where you could just look up chatbot on the App Store and pull out the UI. It does not need to reinvent the wheel. The only thing that's important to reinvent here is the prompting, and that's probably, so before we go into that, I want t…”
Insight
Farroki: App Store screenshots are as crucial as YouTube thumbnails
“People don't understand how big of a deal the app store screenshot is because it is the first impression that a user has with your app when they go to the app store. And if you don't have a good first impression, that's the difference. It's like, there's no po…”
Insight
Isenberg: AI 'Vibe Marketing' Holds an Unfair Advantage Like Mobile in 2010
“If you were a Facebook marketer in 2008, you had an unfair advantage. If you were in consumer mobile in 2010 when the app store, you know, basically just came out, you had an unfair advantage. There's an unfair advantage that exists right now in vibe marketing…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Wilkinson: Standalone apps like Cal AI will face 100 clones within months
“There's tons of those, but there's going to be like a hundred of them in the app store in like two months. And then Cal AI will not be able to charge what they are.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2029
Coogan: Apple will never launch a device stripped of the App Store
“And then they're also never going to be in a situation where they, where apple says, Hey, we're launching a device and we deliberately nerfed it. So it doesn't have an app store. And you can't install Tik Tok or Roblox. Like they're just never going to do that…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: AI characters will drive massive monthly consumer subscription revenue
“So if you, if we believe that characters are going to be a big part of how people consume media And education, 10%, 20%, 30%, then there's going to be tons of paid monthly memberships, essentially, to these characters that I'm going to have in my pocket, simil…”
Disclosure
Autopilot reached 53,000 downloads and $220K ARR days after launch
“Built this Iris, the autopilot app and the autopilot app now has around 53,000 downloads. We launched Yesterday, two days, we launched on Thursday, so we launched a couple days ago, but that app already has 53,000 downloads, zero dollar CAC, all just through t…”
Assertion Supported
Nikita Bier: TBH Was the 15th App Built Over Five Years
“We built we did it for five years. We built 15 apps. We were about to shut down. We were very close to it. And the 15th app went straight to number one in the app store, right as we were, like, basically turning off the lights in the office.”
Disclosure
Jiang: The Peek mobile app took 1.5 months to build before launch
“So we basically took this and spent about One and a half months actually building it out before we launched in the app store.”