The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Greg Isenberg (11)Sahil Bloom (3)John Coogan (3)Dave Friedberg (3)Raoul Pal (2)David Senra (2)Scott Belsky (1)Samuel Thompson (1)Sahil Lavingia (1)Nik Sharma (1)Kevin Rose (1)Julien Smith (1)
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Next up (1)
930 days left 2029-03-31
Coogan: SpaceX will launch robotic Mars missions at next transfer window
“When the next transfer window comes up,
I think SpaceX is going to definitely try and launch a rocket to get there, but it'll probably just be like robots.
And then the next one, they're going to launch like 10 rockets during that window.”
Closed calls (1) the full record →
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”