The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 478 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 80 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mavrookas: Saronic will test a hypersonic missile before a manned Navy vessel
“We're actually going to be able to launch a hypersonic missile off of the back of Marauder, which is an autonomous ship, Before the Navy completes their first test of a hypersonic missile off of a manned vessel.”
Lamm: Colossal could birth an extinct species within 12 months
“The next 12 months, I'm looking forward to Colossal potentially having the next birthed extinct species.”
Tony Kim: AI compute requires $10 trillion in CapEx over five years
“So this is the irony of it all, that we're, the trillion dollars of CapEx this year, and the 10 trillion over the next five years that are coming,
Is to move data centimeters and millimeters.
That's AI.”
Friedberg predicts the US faces tyranny or anarchy within two years
“Because otherwise you are going to have tyranny slash anarchy, which are both basically the same happening over the next couple of years in the United States.”
Patel: Open-source AI is dying as Chinese labs shift to licensing
“The theme here is that all, like, there's multiple Chinese model labs who are telling all the inference guys, hey, yeah, yeah, our next model's not gonna be open source, we're gonna license it to you. So open is, is dying quickly, unfortunately.”
Jain: Open source models will dominate AI inferencing within two years
“Well, I think open source models are going to dominate AI inferencing. You know, you'll see in the next two years, we'll shift to where's almost no open source to where's going to be almost all open source.”
Cook: Keyboards and mice will be obsolete within five years
“We're gonna look back in five years and say, of course we're not using keyboards and mice anymore. Like, we've come up with a better way to interact with intelligence.”
Grinberg: 90% of AI tokens will use open models within 12 months
“My hottest take is that in the next 12 months, 90% of tokens will be going to open models.”
Johnston: SpaceX will reach a $10 trillion valuation within years
“My hottest take right now is that the SpaceX IPO is the, gonna be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time. I think they will tear through 10 trillion within, you know, certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimite…”
Banister: China will train AI on Western IP and sell output back
“And then what's really going to happen is China will sell our art back to us. So they're going to steal it all anyway, because they don't care. And they're just going to basically come back to us with these models, which we've seen with DeepSeek and everything…”
Miller: Top-quartile late-stage venture returns will soon match early-stage returns
“The returns in the private market at the late stage are actually going to start matching the returns at the early stage. If you look at top quartile performance of early stage funds versus late stage funds, I think they're going to be pretty close to each othe…”
Armstrong: AI will not cause high unemployment
“I'm in the camp of people who don't think AI is going to actually cause high unemployment. I think that employment will be about the same.”
Singerman predicts proposed wealth taxes will go national across the US
“Oh, that's definitely going national.”
Gil Feig: Custom agent harnesses and workflow builders will become obsolete very soon
“You see a lot of people trying to build, like, a custom harness, or, You know use something like a workflow builder to build agents that are repeatable and all of that. And I just ultimately think none of it matters because we're almost at the point now where …”
Tandon: VC-backed AI point solutions will die within three years
“There's a lot of nonsense GPT wrapper businesses out there right now. I won't say them by name. Maybe I'll say them by name later, but the, you know, they grew fast. They got a lot of VC interest, but they're going to be gone in three years because companies l…”
Taneja: Multiple compression will wipe out equity in many PE software buyouts
“I think software is just now maturing to a state where it's gonna have the same dynamic, and there's a one-time massive reset that's gonna happen because the amount of leverage in the system, and there's a lot of leverage coming due in these P-back companies i…”
Abraham: AI disparity will force NYC luxury apartments to hire armed guards
“The wealth disparity that's already extreme in the US is going to become even more extreme, and one of the first effects of that is just going to be that we're going to live in a less safe society, where in your New York Fancy apartment where you have your doo…”
Constant AI Assistants Will Raise the World's Net IQ by 50 Points
“In general, I think the net IQ of the world is about to go up like 50 points. Like we're surrounded by people, not in Silicon Valley, of course, To quote the Big Lebowski, not a nom, of course. Right. The average IQ is still a hundred. I think the average IQ w…”
Miller: Public venture fund structures will be adopted across VC within years
“Right now we're novel in a couple of years from now it'll be obvious and everyone will be doing this.”
Miller: Loyal will develop the most successful drug in history
“This is going to be the most successful drug in history. And then she's going to go and create the next thing. She's going to create like longevity for humans. I think too.”
AI-native new graduates will 10x output and displace older workers
“I actually think most of those people, most of the new grads, they're gonna be so good at using those AI tools. They're gonna put all the people that are in the older range out of business and be able to do tenx more just by having lived through, like, this re…”
Raanan: An Israeli cybersecurity startup will reach a $50B valuation by 2032
“I'm pretty sure that in, in, in six years, maybe less, we'll see a fifty billion dollar and a hundred billion dollar cyber security company out of Israel. You know. I take it like take it like a fact, like, you know, the sun was, would rise tomorrow. You know,…”
Rao: Trillion-dollar GPU data centers are physically impossible to power
“None of this is physically realizable, right? That's what's really kind of annoying to me. I'm like, okay, you're talking about, you know, a trillion dollars of GPUs. Where the fuck are you gonna get the power for that? I'm sorry, right? Like you're just, you'…”
Maguire: Space-based data centers will become absolutely giant
“The public doesn't yet Like, the public hasn't yet gotten to see the full argument, like, hasn't gotten to see the math, but I'll just say, like, I think the math is really compelling, and I think data centers in space are, and I was on TBPN maybe six months a…”
Mignano: AI-generated feeds will eventually diminish human creator value
“I think where we're inevitably headed is now when you're swiping TikTok or Reels or Sora, We're eventually gonna end up in a place where most of that content is generated on the fly specifically to target you and to capture your attention as long as possible. …”
Siddharth: Agentic AI will replace services firms like McKinsey, BCG, and Accenture
“So I think like Turing will probably replace companies like McKinsey, Bain, BCG, and every services company like Accenture, TCS, Wipro, Infosys, like all of these companies doing vanilla services that's going to be automated with these agentic systems.”
Allen Control CEO: Our counter-drone gun will be on every military vehicle
“I think that like bullfrog is going to be everywhere. Like every vehicle in every military that has a gun on it needs to be replaced with a gun that can hit drones. So, I mean, we're going to be in like every country. This is one of the biggest products of all…”
Shadbolt: One-million-qubit quantum computer will outperform all global conventional compute
“A single million qubit quantum computer would outperform The net total of conventional computing on the entire planet. So you take all of the supercomputers on the planet, you take every AWS system, every Azure system, you add them all together, and we trash t…”
Deploying 1,000 REGENT seagliders in the Taiwan Strait deters World War III
“And then in defense, in 10 years, we will not have had a World War III Because of Regents efforts and many other efforts in deterring that conflict, because we put a thousand sea gliders in the Taiwan trait and we said, try it.”
McGee: Jony Ive and OpenAI's AI Device Will Just Become an iPhone App
“I think it becomes an iPhone app.”
Agrawal: Humans Will Not Need to Work to Earn a Living by 2035
“I suspect in five to 10 years, we wouldn't have to work to earn a living anymore.”
Power: Demographic decline will pressure Xi Jinping to act before 2037-2042
“We just have to last till about 2037, 20 42, and then kind of overnight China's working population will cut in half, and then they can try again in another thousand years. So that will put a lot of pressure in our opinion on Xi to actually do something, becaus…”
Sadeghi: Falling IVF and sequencing costs will create genetically optimized children
“And so you're going to see the rapid decrease in cost of IVF combined with the rapid decrease in cost of sequencing A genome. These things are going to converge together to enable this just, this massive, massive new generation of parents having genetically op…”
Sadeghi: Future reproductive genomics platforms will both sequence and edit DNA
“Because eventually, you're not just going to be sequencing and analyzing DNA, You'll also probably be editing it as well.”
Sharky predicts AI tooling will eliminate junior engineer roles in big tech
“I don't think there's a world really for junior engineers at big organizations.”
Peters: Consumers will disintermediate traditional healthcare using AI pocket doctors
“In the limit, we think every person in America, and frankly the world, will have an AI doctor in their pocket, and consumers will fully disintermediate the existing healthcare system as it stands.”
Forty-seven of the top fifty defense startups will fail within fifteen years
“A significant number of the logos that are talked about today and the, you know, sort of top 50 in this field. You know, 47 of those are going to be companies that are completely irrelevant. Yeah. 15 years from today.”
Mansoor: Prediction markets could become bigger than the stock market
“I think it could just look like the stock market, maybe even bigger.”
McCormick: Most fast-growing AI software startups will flatten and fail to IPO
“By choosing to, like, not play in this space, I'm definitely missing a trillion dollar company or two, but I think for the most part, like, I think there's gonna be, like, a lot of these types of things happening, or even, like, these types of curves, where th…”
McCormick: AI will become 'super SaaS' rather than godlike AGI
“I called it super sass in, in that like 20, 25 prediction. And I think it is like, I think it's really amazing and like in no way godlike. And it's just like, I feel like I'm being psyopped whenever people are like, oh my God, this is like, this is, this chang…”
El-Baba: AI-era startups will not need billions before going public
“No long gone are the days where you're going to have to raise Billions of dollars before you go public. 15 years down the road, you actually can follow the Viva capital efficiency story and build a really great company that can drive a really strong venture ou…”
Asparouhov: Western Europe will resemble a second-world region in ten years
“Still you continue to extrapolate that trend for another 10 years. And like Western Europe is going to look like a second world country while Eastern Europe actually just sort of rises to the top.”
Kolicich: Expect an AI crash and market retrenchment within two years
“I believe in two years where everyone's gonna say, oh, you know, we thought it would solve everything and it's all a very limited number of use cases. It's complete hype. And, you know, we'll probably see a bit of a crash and we'll see a retrenchment in AI.”
Kolicich: Open-source AI iteration speed will surpass closed source
“Cause you'll see the case of iteration at open source is going to eclipse close source.”
Mavrookas: Saronic will save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars
“What we're building at Cerronek will not only provide more capabilities faster, but it'll save the taxpayer hundreds of billions of dollars by driving down costs as well.”
Mavrookas: Five to ten new defense primes will scale within a decade
“I think over the next five to 10 years, I'll answer, I won't dodge the question completely. I think there will be somewhere, but around five to 10. I think you'll see five to 10 really, like, big impactful companies scale over the next five to 10 years, and ho…”
Mavrookas: Port Alpha will create 10,000 jobs and $160B economic impact
“So what we're going to do at Port Alpha, you mentioned 10 years, over the next 10 years, we're going to create 10,000 jobs. We're going to invest billions of dollars. I mean, we're going to have a hundred and sixty billion dollar economic impact in Brownsville…”
Beck: Future space giants will integrate rockets, satellites, and downstream apps
“Like, the big space companies of the future are gonna all look a little bit the same. They're gonna have their own rocket, because access to space is key. They're gonna have their own ability to build as many satellites as they need, and they're all gonna have…”