The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Beck: Rocket Lab would already be launching Neutron if it were expendable
“If our job was just to make a, you know, an expendable launch vehicle, we'd be there now. We'd, we'd be launching Neutrons flat out.”
Friedberg: Social Security would have an extra $37T if invested in S&P 500
“If you had put all the extra money That was put into Social Security since 1982 into the S&P 500. The Social Security Trust Fund would have an extra 37 trillion dollars in assets sitting in it today.”
Rabois: He and Eric Wu could have easily bought out Opendoor
“It would have been easy to buy out the company ourselves and just own the whole thing if we'd paid attention a month earlier which probably would have been a better thing to do, truthfully.”
Vasavada: Vise should have bought legacy asset managers instead of hiring
“I think there was a tremendous opportunity to buy kind of legacy asset management businesses that had a tremendous amount of distribution and transform them with technology that we could have done if we raised a lot more money. Rather than going and hiring a b…”
Monroe-Anderson: Ukraine Would Be Far Worse Off Without Chinese Drone Components
“I mean, I think, like, it's a morally corrupt approach but although it would also be far worse for Ukraine if they didn't have access to Chinese components.”
Singerman admits Founders Fund would not exist if SpaceX had failed
“If SpaceX didn't work, Founders Fund would not exist. Like, we bet our careers, essentially, on SpaceX”
Tandon: AWS could never have succeeded through product-led growth alone
“There's no version of the world where AWS could have been a PLG cell. It needed to, it really needed that enterprise motion where Theresa and Jassy and Garmin and the team at the top came in and sat down with these government officials And pitch them on the vi…”
Miller: AI companies would have been decimated if public
“And I think if any of the AI companies have been public, they would have been getting decimated.”
Technologies acquired by Anduril would not have reached the military otherwise
“They've identified the technology and that technology probably never would have found its way into the hands of, you know, the government or the warfighter without Andrel”
Beck: Rocket Lab Could Never Have Done Major Acquisitions as a Private Company
“Capital markets enable you to do things you couldn't do in private markets. Buying Iridium. Like we could have never, ever done that as a private company.”
McGee: Apple Would Have Gone Bankrupt Without Outsourcing Manufacturing
“You can't really blame them at all for adopting the outsourcing model, because without it, they would be bankrupt. I mean, the book begins after a pretty fun prologue. They're days away from bankruptcy. And it's because they're building everything themselves.”
Hecht: Rushing post-GroupMe prevented deliberate thinking about his next startup
“Part of that was informed by the fact that, you know, when I left GroupMe to start Fundera I very often felt while reflecting on that process that I didn't take enough time and I wasn't deliberate enough about what I wanted to do next and perhaps maybe even ha…”