why aren't all 40 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2025
Siemiatkowski: Klarna cut headcount from 7,400 to 3,000 while doubling revenue
“Klana has gotten so much attention around our efficiency gains, and we've gone from 7400 people to 3000, while, you know, our revenue has doubled since then. So, our revenue per employee went from 450,000 dollars per employee to over a million now.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Mavrookas: South Korean and Japanese shipbuilders source modules and labor from China
“Our allies, South Korea and Japan, the next two largest shipbuilders in the world, they're actually, on the commercial side, they're actually getting a lot of their modules from China. They're getting a lot of their labor from China.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2026
Clements: 7x more CFOs are telling developers to increase AI token spending
“We did this survey of developers, and we asked them how many of them had a CFO who was telling them to spend less on Consumption versus more, and we actually found that seven times more companies are being told to, like, let it rip and spin more.”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2027
Radiant microreactors meet NRC radiation limits outside a 35-foot perimeter
“We are down at one megawatt, so enough power for 1000 homes. And we can mass produce these in a factory, deliver them to a site, and with no infrastructure just outside of a 35 foot fence line, you can operate them and be at the NRC public dose limit for a rea…”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Mavrookas: China controls 57% of global shipbuilding capacity
“China has 57% of total global shipbuilding capacity.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2024
Mavrookas: China built 1,000+ commercial ships in 2024 versus five US ships
“They built over a thousand commercial ships last year, and the United States built five. I think this was 20, 24. Five. Like one, two, three, four, Five large ocean going commercial vessels.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2031
Mavrookas: Port Alpha's 800-acre footprint makes it largest US shipyard
“Just that footprint alone will make it the largest shipyard in the country.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Beck: Iridium acquisition immediately adds profitability to Rocket Lab
“Like, Iridium, you know, adds profitability to the entity straight away. It also buys us time to put up a new constellation.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Lamm: Colossal grew mammoth hair follicles from elephant stem cells
“We actually have a hair follicles growing in, in where we've taken elephant stem cells and created follicles so that we can grow mammoth hair.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Romo: Helios Reaches GEO in Eight Hours Cheaper Than Falcon Heavy
“Helios gets them to their same, same place they want to go the same day to launch eight hours later. And it's cheaper than a Falcon Heavy, more expensive than Falcon Nine, obviously, because they need to play for, pay for that and the Helios”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2026
Tandon: RFK Jr. toured Commure's AI healthcare stack at Summa Health
“We had RFK Jr. Visit the hospital last week, and we hosted him there, and it was an amazing visit, showing him the transformation with ambient documentation on ComerStack, with ADOC, which is a, an imaging-based company that's essentially automating a lot of t…”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2029
Adcock: Figure's next-generation hand has as many joints as a human hand
“We recently unveiled our high degree of freedom hand as a teaser, our next generation hand about a month ago. And this hand has basically a human level dexterity, like as many joints in the hand as a human.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Mar 2026
Laffont: Microsoft lost nearly $1T in value over AI positioning concerns
“Microsoft, as an example, I think has lost almost a trillion dollars of value over that timeframe as people are questioning their positioning kind of in AI.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Franceschi: Brex is growing 40% to 50% and borderline cash-flow positive
“You look at where the company is today, you know, the company is growing, you know, 40 to 50%. You know, borderline cashflow positive.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2026
Cliffton: FAA approved Zipline for 1 human per 30 autonomous aircraft
“We've just been approved by the FAA to now fly one human to 30 aircraft.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Levy: Atmo's AI weather models run 45,000x faster than numerical simulations
“Similarly, AI meteorology, like we're utilizing here, is, is now running, in our case together, about 45,000 times faster than numerical models of equal resolution so far, which allows us to do these things like consider the thousands of alternative scenarios …”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Ritter: $500B Stargate project is $100B equity, 75% chips, 25% infrastructure
“Remember, it's equity dollars and debt that's going into this, so five hundred billion is probably a hundred billion of equity, of money going in that is sort of risk money, the rest is building out The infrastructure, 25% of it goes to buildings and cooling s…”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2027
Radiant's Kaleidos microreactor can become operational within two days on site
“With a reactor like this, that can be quickly moved and doesn't need a lot of infrastructure. You can be operating it in about two days after getting it on a site, which means you can use it for disaster relief.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Mavrookas: The US naval fleet is shrinking to roughly 290 ships
“The naval fleet that we have today is actually shrinking. So there's right around 290 ships in our naval fleet.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Ganesh: Fully unmanned fleets of Marauder-scale vessels have never been deployed
“Getting to the point where you have You know, a fleet of these that are completely unmanned just never been done before.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Mavrookas: China controls 57% of global shipbuilding capacity
“China has 57% of total global shipbuilding capacity.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Beck: Archimedes engine qualification requires 40 starts and a one-hour burn
“So, you know, the qualification burn time for an Archimedes engine is one hour. So the engine, you know, has to do 40 starts and run for one hour.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Lamm: Colossal raised $635M total after $400M round oversubscribed
“Yeah, 6:35 total. The last round was supposed to be 200, and it got overscribed to 400.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Monroe-Anderson: Latest Bandit Interceptor prototype reaches roughly 300 km/h
“This one goes about 40 kilometers an hour faster, so we're doing about 300 kilometers an hour with this drone right here.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Rangwalla: S&P 500 Earnings Growth Accelerates to 18% Through 2026
“The S&P, 500 earnings growth through 26 is like 15% accelerating to 18%.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Immerman: Waymo is scaling to over 20 new cities this year
“They're scaling to over 20 new cities this year.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jan 2026
Franceschi: Capital One's acquisition of Brex took just over 40 days
“The whole thing from first sort of serious meeting to sign definitive agreement was a little bit over 40 days.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Seaglider hydrofoils handle five-foot waves, enabling 90% harbor utilization worldwide
“So we have this hydrofoiling mode that lets us take up to five feet waves and we've pulled, you know buoy data from all around the world and we're like 90 plus percent utilization in every harbor in the world.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2025
Brex has surpassed $100 billion in total payment volume
“Most recently, you guys crossed over a hundred billion in total payment volume.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Sadeghi: Whole-genome testing will unify ancestry, clinical screening, and IVF platforms
“Because fundamentally, through the rise of the whole genome test, you can actually combine every single one of these applications. You can combine, you know, kind of ancestry, Natera, Myriad, IVF genetic testing companies, PGX companies, all into one roof, int…”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2029
German operators proved safety by leaving overheating nuclear reactor unmonitored overnight
“There's a HTGR reactor in Germany, AVR, where the operators would actually just leave the operating room, And allow the system to overheat and they would leave it and leave it overnight in that state and then come back and then start operating the next day.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Lehman: Saronic closed a government CRADA within 90 days of founding
“One, and it was a cooperative research and development agreement, CRADA, a government term of art. And it's essentially a no-cost contract that in exchange for codifying the relationship, you can get access to certain customer requirements or information that …”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Mavrookas: Saronic has grown to 1,800 people in four years
“And in four years, we've grown to 1800 people.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Mavrookas: Saronic launched first Mirage autonomous vessel into sea trials
“This is our second one actually that we're building. We just launched the first one about a week and a half ago. That's already in sea trials, already going through the testing that we talked about.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Mavrookas: Saronic built USVs before Ukraine's first drone boat strike
“The other thing I want to highlight there is we actually started working on this before the very, very first USV strike happened in Ukraine.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Lopez: Base Core eliminates wiring and conduit work with quick connects
“And so this actually has a quick connect on that disco inside and a quick connect here. So you don't have to do any wiring. You don't have to like cut and strip wire or fish it through conduit. All these things that like require a lot of skill sets and take a …”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2026
Desai: ElevenLabs runs over 50 million agents on MongoDB
“Out of London, and they have north of fifty million agents, depending on when you look at it, all running on MongoDB.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Slotowicz: Pre-owned private jet prices range from $3M to $30M across categories
“If you're buying sort of pre-owned airplane, A light jet will run you around three to five million bucks. A midsize, something like this will be anywhere from 10 to 20, and a heavy jet, maybe 20 to 30 million dollars. Just the sticker price, just to get into t…”
Assertion Open · timeframe Sep 2028
REGENT's commercial electric seagliders achieve up to 180 miles of range
“So in the commercial side up to about a 180 miles of range on battery technology alone.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jul 2025
Little: Reconciliation Bill Allocates $450M for Maritime Software and AI
“And there's a huge part of the reconciliation bill, about four hundred and fifty million, that recognizes that we need to be able to use software and AI to be able to accelerate that journey.”