The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tenev: Prediction markets will disrupt insurance by cheapening fire and hurricane hedging
“You can trade and hedge fire risk. You can hedge hurricane risk. And if you think about the process of like insuring yourself against a fire or a hurricane, It can be very expensive and it's cumbersome. You have to talk to a broker on the phone and the contrac…”
Tenev: Retail access to private companies will be standard in 5 years
“And I think that, you know, five years from now, The exact mechanisms, whether tokenization is legal or closed-end funds, that's less clear. But what I know is I, I'm very confident that retail investors getting exposure to private companies Will be easier, mu…”
Tenev: Most Robinhood revenue could be international and institutional in 10 years
“I think if you look 10 years from now, we see a world where more than half of our revenue could be outside the U.S. And also cut another way, more than half of our revenue could be business and institutional rather than retail.”