The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mark Suster predicts mega tech M&A remains dead regardless of elections
“The FTC has not been looking too kindly on these mega deals. And so I think the mega deals just aren't going to happen for a period of time. I don't know what will happen post November, but even either administration, I'm not convinced they're suddenly going t…”
Mark Suster Jun 28, 2024 ▶ 45:14 Mark Suster, Upfront Ventures: Investing in Space, Defense, & Exit Opportunities · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
Suster: 25% of VC funds deployed their entire fund in 2021
“25% of all funds deployed their entire fund in twenty-twenty-one. 25%, one in four. The median time to deploy in twenty-twenty-one was 1.7 years, okay?”
Mark Suster Jun 28, 2024 ▶ 4:41 Mark Suster, Upfront Ventures: Investing in Space, Defense, & Exit Opportunities · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Suster says 20-percent growth software startups currently trade at 4x revenue
“But the twenty-year average is six X. And right now, if you're growing at 20%, you're probably trading at Forex.”
Mark Suster Jun 28, 2024 ▶ 40:56 Mark Suster, Upfront Ventures: Investing in Space, Defense, & Exit Opportunities · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Suster: Series A/B capital grew 9x from 2010 to 2022
“The market for A and B between 2010 and 2022 went up by nine X. So nine times more capital in those markets than in any other sector of the market. And as a result, valuations went up like 300%.”
Mark Suster Jun 28, 2024 ▶ 19:44 Mark Suster, Upfront Ventures: Investing in Space, Defense, & Exit Opportunities · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Mark Suster notes 2021 software multiples hit 25x against historical 10x
“So, people were paying in twenty-twenty-one 25 times next 12 month revenue, ok? Over the last 10 years, they were paying just under 10 times.”
Mark Suster Jun 28, 2024 ▶ 40:23 Mark Suster, Upfront Ventures: Investing in Space, Defense, & Exit Opportunities · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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