The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Schimpf: Traditional cost-plus defense contracts are a disaster
“Versus the traditional approach where it's like the government took all the risk and you get a fixed profit fee. That's a disaster. Like everything just gets more complex and more expensive. It doesn't work out.”
The US could get 2x more capability per dollar on weapons
“I tend to think we can get a lot more bang for our buck on weapons, on aircraft, you know, probably two X from where we are. By just looking at a different mix of these things.”
Schimpf: US defense budgets cannot shrink without sacrificing necessary military capability
“I don't see a world where, like, the defense budgets could magically shrink, and we still have the military that we need to have, but I do think these things can be done wildly more efficiently than they ever have in the past.”
Schimpf: Europe will spend 4x US defense procurement over next five years
“Europe is going to spend something like
Four times the amount of procurement that the U S is over the next five years.”
Schimpf: US has sufficient PCB, composites, and CNC capacity for defense
“Is there enough composites capacity or printed circuit board capacity in the U S or CNC shops? The answer is absolutely yes. There is definitely enough capacity”
Schimpf: Critical defense supply chains require commercially viable factories
“You have to solve this at a commercially viable level, not at a defense specific level. It will always then be too expensive and unproducible. If you just have a defense exquisite magnet factory, like that doesn't work. You need a commercially viable magnet fa…”
Schimpf: Europe will outspend US procurement fourfold over next five years
“Europe is going to spend something like four times the amount of procurement that the U.S. Is over the next five years.”
Schimpf: Anduril has 7,000 employees and is still doubling revenue past $1B
“So we're eight years ish in we're at about 7000 employees. We have consistently doubled revenue like every year, right? So even like over a billion, we're still doubling revenue.”
Schimpf: Anduril will produce autonomous fighter jets in months
“We're making autonomous fighter jets. You know, like three years ago, we weren't believable to make autonomous fighter jets. Now we're doing it. And we're going to have them be produced in a production facility in like months from now.”
US defense procurement relative to GDP is at an all-time low
“The procurement budget as a percentage of GDP, for example, is I think the lowest it's ever been.”
Schimpf: Defense tech products unaligned with military 10-year plans fail
“You can chase kind of nonsensical you know, products that don't have longevity to it, that aren't actually fit for purpose. Maybe you can make some money off of it for like a few years, but if you're not actually aligned to where the government's going to be, …”
Schimpf: Anduril will be involved in nearly every aspect of US/allied defense
“Over the next few years, we are going to become
So involved in nearly every aspect of U S and international defense in a way that I think is going to be very positive for us, very positive for the world, but just the sheer scale and breadth that we will be op…”
Schimpf: Brokers are offering secondary Anduril stock they don't possess
“Everyone is slinging Andurl stock that they don't have.”
Schimpf: Over half of US defense budget covers personnel and facilities
“More than half goes to personnel costs, to facilities, to military construction. So you just have an outrageous percentage going to these fixed costs that you have that are not next generation technology. And then There's an outrageous cost as well then to sus…”
Schimpf: US defense procurement as percentage of GDP is historically low
“The procurement budget as a percentage of GDP, for example, is I think the lowest it's ever been.”
Schimpf: Defense requires high product diversity at low production volumes
“Defense is a very unique world where you're going to build a lot of different products at relatively low volumes.”
Schimpf: Anduril split Ghost Shark development 50-50 with Australia
“We went and pitched them on this idea of you could build these extra large autonomous underwater vehicles.
They can build them fast, and we did this model of splitting the development fifty-fifty.”