The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Miller: Public venture fund structures will be adopted across VC within years
“Right now we're novel in a couple of years from now it'll be obvious and everyone will be doing this.”
Miller: Loyal will develop the most successful drug in history
“This is going to be the most successful drug in history. And then she's going to go and create the next thing. She's going to create like longevity for humans. I think too.”
Miller: Public venture funds will become a multi-hundred-billion-dollar asset class
“I think that it's about creating like a multi hundred billion dollar category where you get millions of people investing in private tech companies and build this bridge between the two sides of the market.”
Miller: Every American will allocate 5% to public VC in 10 years
“I think that like 10 years from now, every single person in America will have five percent of their portfolio in like public venture capital. It'll be totally normal. It'll be like an ETF. It'll be just this thing that's standard and the public capital, so the…”
Miller predicts most mega venture firms like a16z will eventually go public
“The nature of these partnerships is eventually they want to monetize and the best way to monetize is go public. This happened in all the investment banks. They've all went public. And so Yeah, I mean, they'll, most of them will eventually go public, and then t…”
Miller predicts AI will displace 20% to 30% of white-collar jobs
“I think more than 20%, but less than 50. So like let's say 20 to 35 years, 20 to 30% of jobs are Not to, not, not just displaced, but also suppressed. So you don't make that marginal higher and that adds up to tens of millions of jobs.”
Miller: VCX Portfolio Grew 193% Last Year Versus 25% for QQQ
“So QQQ, which is like an index of public tech, the weighted average growth rate of public tech companies last year was 25% a year. The weighted average growth rate for our portfolio for VCX was 193%.”
Miller: AI eliminated Fundrise's need to hire support staff for new users
“But we used to have 20 people. We used to have to hire one person for every 30,000 new investors, and now we don't.”
Miller: Middle East LPs will invest less in VC due to conflict
“I think they'll want to invest less because I think they're going to be trying to like deal with domestic issues. So I think that there's a possibility that we see a downturn coming out of this that, that could shock venture industry.”