The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lin: Top companies will reach $10 trillion valuations within ten years
“Today we have companies that are worth four and a half to five trillion dollars. If you give it another five to 10 years, those companies continue to compound. It will be worth 10 trillion or more.”
Lin: AI startups are scaling to $10M ARR faster than ever
“You see companies today going from zero to ten million in ARR in very, very fast, ah, time frames, which we have not seen in the past.”
Lin: OpenAI leverages Oracle's balance sheet and tools for data centers
“Oracle, the last time I checked, still exists. If you think that they're a legacy company, I don't know why OpenAI would want to leverage their balance sheet and their and their tools to be able to run data centers.”
Lin: Top engineers shipped 3x more code using AI tools
“The top five to 10% of their engineers shipped three times more than they did last year.”
Lin: In two to three years, the 'AI company' label will vanish
“In probably two or three years, we will not call them AI companies. Just the same way that internet companies over time, yeah, there were native internet companies, but over time, every company became an internet company. Every company became a mobile company.”
Zipline used its Rwanda drone delivery safety records to win US approval
“The whole idea was we're going to go out to Rwanda. We're going to prove out that we can do this. And then we can bring back all of the safety records to the U S and eventually be allowed to fly in the U S which is what has happened now.”
Lin: Sequoia will soon look at $10B+ gains for legendary status
“And I'm sure in a few years we'll be looking at ten billion dollar gains or more.”
Kalshi called the US election outcome before national media outlets
“They called it before all of the other national media outlets.”
Lin: Sequoia required three internal investment memos to approve funding DoorDash
“I had to write three memos for DoorDash investments.”
Lin: Sequoia internally rejected Kalshi four times despite his memos
“I wrote four memos and got four no's for a Kaoshi investment.”
Lin: Airbnb went from 40% growth to losing 80% of revenue
“A company that is used to growing 30, 40% a year went to losing 80% of its revenue.”
Lin recounts how Clay pivoted from general programming to go-to-market tooling
“Clay, I'll just use Clay as an example, where they started out as trying to bring programming to the masses. They built something and there were no, there are not enough users who thought that this was something that they wanted. They didn't know what to do wi…”
Sequoia evaluates 1,000 companies before making a single investment
“That's pretty consistent to how many companies and how many founders we have to see Before we make one investment on typically we see about a thousand companies before we make one investment.”
Kalshi reduced its event launch turnaround from 18 months to hours
“And so when they first started, it probably took 18 months to launch their first event. And now it takes a matter of hours.”
Zipline originally built an unsticky smartphone-powered toy robot
“Zipline, they started out with this idea of building a mobile platform for robotics where the iPhone was going to be the brains. And what they ended up with was what Keller would say was kind of like a toy and people would play with it. They had fun with it. A…”