The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,341 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Shea: a16z raised 18% of all US venture dollars last year
“A-sixteen Z raised 18% of all US venture dollars last year.”
Raanan: Cyberstarts' 2018 fund turned $50M into nearly $2B in three years
“I invested in nine teams out of a fund of fifty million dollars in 2018. You know, a few million dollars each company. And then three years later, the world found out that those nine teams are valued over twenty five billion dollars, turning those fifty millio…”
Raanan: Cyberstarts portfolio is over 50% of global private cybersecurity market cap
“Our portfolio company Companies are making up more than 50% of the worldwide market cap for private cyber security companies.”
Raanan: Wiz scaled quarterly sales from $1M to $24M in year one
“The first four quarters, if I'm Remembering correctly, they sold a million dollar, and then two million dollars, and then eight million dollars in the third quarter, and then twenty four million dollars in the fourth quarter.”
Lin: AI startups are scaling to $10M ARR faster than ever
“You see companies today going from zero to ten million in ARR in very, very fast, ah, time frames, which we have not seen in the past.”
Lin: OpenAI leverages Oracle's balance sheet and tools for data centers
“Oracle, the last time I checked, still exists. If you think that they're a legacy company, I don't know why OpenAI would want to leverage their balance sheet and their and their tools to be able to run data centers.”
Lin: Top engineers shipped 3x more code using AI tools
“The top five to 10% of their engineers shipped three times more than they did last year.”
Laffont: Microsoft lost nearly $1T in value over AI positioning concerns
“Microsoft, as an example, I think has lost almost a trillion dollars of value over that timeframe as people are questioning their positioning kind of in AI.”
External consultants billed Opendoor to create presentation decks for internal meetings
“There were consultants billing open door money to create presentations for internal open door meetings.”
Nejatian: Opendoor offshored customer support to Mexico on consulting advice
“Because of the advice we got from this consulting firm, we offshored customer support of Ovador to Mexico.”
Opendoor has hired more YC founders than any other company under Nejatian
“If you look around, we have hired more YC founders into Opendoor since I started in any company.”
Nejatian says Opendoor's balance sheet was a ticking time bomb upon joining
“When I got here, the company, the company's balance sheet had like a ticking time bomb on it. Like it wasn't obvious how the company was going to survive that ticking time bomb. Now, luckily we've cleaned it up. The balance sheet is incredibly healthy, but for…”
All Opendoor product managers are individual contributors reporting directly to Nejatian
“All the product managers at Opendoor report directly to me. They're all ICs, they all report to me.”
Woo: Prime is the fastest-growing beverage in history with $1B sales
“Prime, fastest growing beverage in history multiple businesses that he's created in over the years, so I think in terms of, one, to me, it's like, aside from, like, the fame and the influence, just like, he sold a billion dollars of beverages in a couple years”
Rao: MosaicML grew from $20M to over $700M at Databricks
“When I came there, we had about a twenty million dollar business, and it was, you know, seven or eight hundred million when I left, something like that. I think it's crossed well over a billion.”
Bueller: Vast majority of academia believed OpenAI's research would fail
“Remember, the vast majority of academia, when OpenAI was doing their research that now has changed the world, would have thought that that would fail.”
Rao: Rat and human cortex microcircuits are virtually indistinguishable
“As a trained neuroscientist, I can look at the, what we call the cytoarchitecture, basically the cell structure of the cortex of a rat And a human, I can't tell the difference. So the human or the evolutionary biology version of Moore's law kind of ended about…”
Das: Current AI explainability techniques are empirical, not fundamental
“All explainable techniques for AI today are kind of not, are, they're empirical. So they're looking at the results, they're evaluating it. That, that's not fundamentally explaining why a model does what it does.”
Franceschi: Brex is growing 40% to 50% and borderline cash-flow positive
“You look at where the company is today, you know, the company is growing, you know, 40 to 50%. You know, borderline cashflow positive.”
Capital One acquired Brex at a 13.4x forward gross profit multiple
“And Adyen trades at just below 14 times gross profit. This deal is at 13.4. So, so when you just compare to where all the multiples exist in the range of outcomes of being a public company, this is the very, very top of the range.”
Franceschi: Brex will be third-largest US corporate card on day one
“And then you look on this on day one after closing, Brexit will be the third largest corporate card in the country.”
Franceschi: Brex serves one in three US startups
“And Brex today serves one in three startups in the US.”
Franceschi: Brex serves 300 public companies and all major AI labs
“We went from, you know, zero to 300 public companies on Brex and, you know, all the major AI labs are on Brex today.”
Franceschi: Brex's acquisition by Capital One is the largest bank-fintech deal ever
“Here's a crystallized outcome, which is the biggest deal of this size that ever happened in history, and the scale of a bank and a fintech company.”
Maguire: Starlink scaled to a $1B run rate within 12 months
“And then after Starlink got to about a billion of revenue, which was very fast, it was about 12 months after they got their first dollar of revenue, they were at about a billion of run rate,”
Wright: Hyperscale data centers leave 70% of the world without AI access
“Today they cover about 30% of the world. That means 70% of the world does not have access to AI.”
Ramaswamy: AI Demand Outstrips What Industry Can Reasonably Produce
“What is pretty remarkable about this moment is that there is more demand for AI and AI products than people can reasonably produce. That's the reason why there is so much investment in things.”
Ramaswamy: Slootman Urged Snowflake Board to Appoint Him CEO Immediately
“He went to the board and basically said, if we are going to bet on this guy, we just bet on this guy. No, no halfway.”
Cliffton: FAA approved Zipline for 1 human per 30 autonomous aircraft
“We've just been approved by the FAA to now fly one human to 30 aircraft.”
Cliffton: New Zipline sites reach 100 daily deliveries in two days
“So, you know, it took us it took us, I think, about a 110 days to get our first site to a hundred deliveries a day. We now have sites that hit a hundred deliveries a day in two days.”
Cliffton: Over 50% of households order via Zipline in some cities
“In some cities we have over 50% of homes ordering from Zipline.”
Cliffton: Zipline has 140M autonomous commercial miles with zero safety incidents
“You know, Zipline has a hundred and forty million commercial autonomous miles with zero safety incidents.”
Cliffton: Zipline now does more deliveries in the US than worldwide combined
“We had almost no operations in the U.S. At the beginning of last year, and we have now expanded to the point where Zipline actually does more deliveries in the U.S. Than it does in the rest of the world combined.”
Cliffton: Zipline is largest autonomous system on Earth with 140M miles
“Zipline has now crossed a hundred and forty million commercial autonomous miles, which makes it the largest commercial autonomous system on earth, ground or air.”
Cliffton: Zipline cuts maternal mortality by 51%+ in operating countries
“The company saves about 17,000 lives a year, and the majority of those are moms and kids. You know, when you look at the statistics, we've been able to reduce maternal mortality by 51% or more in a lot of the countries that we operate by making a lot of produc…”
Rinaudo Cliffton: Zipline Logged 100M+ Autonomous Miles With Zero Safety Incidents
“After, you know, achieving over a hundred million commercial autonomous miles with zero safety incidents, we were able to bring that data to the FAA and get unprecedented regulatory approvals in the U.S.”
Cliffton: Zipline's Dallas ordering rates imply 50B US deliveries annually
“The crazy thing is that the data that Zipline is currently seeing in Dallas, that the frequency of customer ordering, if you were to apply that just to the rest of the US, there would be fifty billion instant deliveries happening in the US every year.”
Goldstein: eVTOL is the first new FAA aircraft category in 60 years
“So you have a new platform that's really, it's like day one of that, first new category at the FAA in 60 years, and it's an opportunity to build a whole next generation of aviation.”
Goldstein: Jim Cramer's constant attacks on Archer only increase public attention
“Like, Kramer has always hated us and just gashes us at every chance he can get. And in a way, it just brings more, almost like, attention to it.”
Tenev: Robinhood offers over 1,500 tokenized stocks in Europe
“1500 stocks are available for trading in Europe right now.”
Tenev: Every consequential IPO candidate consults Robinhood on retail strategy
“This year, basically every consequential company going public is reaching out to us beforehand, asking us, you know, for advice on their retail strategy, how they can engage retail.”
Tenev: Harmonic AI became one of first models to win IMO gold
“We started solving, like, competition math problems, and we became one of the first models to actually get a gold medal on the International Math Olympiad, which is the hardest math competition In the world.”
Tenev: Harmonic's Aristotle AI got 10 of 12 Putnam competition problems correct
“Well, Aristotle which is the name of the math model that, that the company builds, In a consumer form, which just people can use freely, got 10 out of the 12 problems of the Putnam correct, which is a lot more than I got on the Putnam.”
Katzenberg: Hyperscalers are investing $700B in capex over 24 months
“You know, there's seven hundred billion dollars of capital investment being made in 24 months.”
Mignano: Granola has the highest user retention he has ever seen
“And we find that when somebody uses the product, it's incredibly sticky, right? Like the retention is insane. I've never seen retention like this before for a product, because each time you use it just becomes more and more valuable for you.”
O'Shea: Carta data shows AI startups get a 30% Series A premium
“Carta just put out recent data in their fund performance report, and series A's are getting a 30% premium. What do they attribute that to? AI. So, AI companies get a 30% premium versus non-AI companies.”