The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,341 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Fox: AssemblyAI used Claude to rebuild and migrate its entire website
“Like, you know, the most recent example is we had Cloud rebuild our whole website off of Webflow and just deployed on Vercel.”
Fox: Customers abandon fine-tuned open-source voice models due to maintenance burdens
“We've seen some customers maybe six months ago or a year ago, they'll take an open source model and fine tune it or something. And then, you know, they're now like, okay, this is like, shit, this is like really behind and it's like nightmare to maintain and I …”
Hurlston: Fiber optics demand is creating an industry manufacturing bottleneck
“So there's a bottleneck that's developing. I think you talked about it with Tony. And as these fiber optics becomes more and more prevalent in data center, it's creating an ever tighter noose around the industry because there's only so much we can do so quickl…”
Hurlston: Chinese Optical Suppliers Have a Significant Presence in US Data Centers
“Between the U.S. Optical component suppliers and how much we supply into the Chinese data centers, very little. We don't supply very much gear into the Chinese data centers, whereas Chinese optical component suppliers, some of our competitors, have a pretty bi…”
Wu: Cognition writes roughly 95% of its code using Devin
“Obviously we use a ton of Devon to build Devon. In fact, we almost exclusively use Devon to build Devon at this point, like, 95% of the code or something's written by Devon.”
Wu: Cognition's shipped code increased roughly 7x in six months
“Even in the last six months, I think the number for us was like, our total amount of code shipped is roughly seven X in that time. And so it's like the number of PRs we've shipped, the amount of code”
Wu: Devin customer usage grew 11x to 12x in six months
“Our customers in the last six months or so, I've also grown their usage in something in the range of like, 11 to 12 acts, and of Devin.”
Cognition Had $70M–$80M ARR and 35–40 People When Buying Windsurf
“Cognition at the time was all of 35 or 40 people and we had a meaningful business with, you know, real traction. We were doing in the range of 70 or eighty million of revenue run rate at the time but it was a very small team. Windsurf, on the other hand becaus…”
Wu: Cognition Offered to Play Thiel's Firm in Poker for 1% Equity
“Since you're such a big fan of poker, you know, we can just play a heads-up poker match for that, and we can have the winner decide whose terms we actually sign. It would have been for, in retrospect, it would have been for, like, one percent of the company or…”
Global tech market cap is $10T software, $20T Mag-7, $30T hardware
“10 trillion in software service internet, 20 trillion in Mag-Seven, 30 trillion in non-Mag-Seven compute chips hardware. That's a, I don't think people would realize that we are that compute hardware centric now. 10, 20, 30. Before AI, BCE era, it was probably…”
Desai: Large Paris Enterprise Refuses Public Cloud Over French Sovereignty Rules
“Yesterday I was with a customer, and they said, hey, I just want to tell you, we are not, and it's a large customer based in Paris, we are not going to move our workloads to public cloud. We are going to run it on-prem. Data sovereignty is highest priority. Fr…”
Desai: Coding agents almost always run on proprietary closed models
“Like, for coding agents, ok, you have Cloud Code, you have Codex, there is a Grok build, many options. Cursor has other options available. So what you find is, in those scenarios, you almost always use See or hear close models, not open source models. Propriet…”
Patel: Nvidia B200 and B300 server pricing increased prior to production
“I think you've already seen server pricing go up like B 200, B 300 that you're buying now versus last year. The price is significantly higher. We've seen next generation hardware receive price increases before they've even started production. Like, here was th…”
Cook: Enterprise open-source LLM spend dropped from 19% to 11%
“Enterprise LLM spend was 19% open source last year, and it's 11% this year. So it's dropped.”
Liang: Infrastructure repatriation to on-premises is actively occurring across enterprises
“Look, repatriation of infrastructure into on-prem is definitely happening, right? You saw this big shift. Everybody's got a cloud called cloud, you know, everything's in the cloud, and 20 years later, you still have companies just starting the migration to the…”
Black: 800+ U.S. mom-and-pop harness suppliers are disappearing via PE buyouts
“Versus the 800 plus mom pop shops that exist all over the U.S. That are not just not only growing or not only are they not growing, they're actually going away. And either private equity is buying them, or they're being absorbed into other companies, or anythi…”
Banister: We brought the Uber investment opportunity to Benchmark's Bill Gurley
“We brought Uber to Bill Gurley.”
Mathew: Elon Musk is reserving 30% of the SpaceX IPO for retail
“And so Elon reserving 30% of the SpaceX IPO for retail investors, I think is a really great thing.”
Randle: Portfolio developers spend $3,000 monthly each on Claude Code
“We were talking with developers and companies in our portfolio, and they're like, yeah, like, you know, we have developers that are spending, you know, 3000 dollars per month themselves, like each on cloud code. So it's like, wow, okay, so that's 36,000 dollar…”
Randle: Anthropic revenue and Claude Code surged following coding model breakthroughs
“Which is why you saw Anthropics revenue and why you saw cloud code go so parabolic, because there was a genuine breakthrough in the usability of those models”
Randle: Multiple people I know hold $3B to $4B in Anthropic
“I have friends, like I know several people that have like three to four billion dollars invested into Anthropic.”
Armstrong: Four billion people worldwide are unbrokered without U.S. investment access
“There's actually about four billion people in the world today who are unbrokered. They don't have access to any high-quality U.S. Investments.”
Armstrong: Coinbase saw strong volume on SpaceX pre-IPO perps
“So we launched with SpaceX, A few weeks ago before they went public, and we saw quite a lot of volume on there.”
Armstrong: Coinbase Was First in the US Approved for Crypto Perp Futures
“Getting these approvals in the US we were the first for These perpetual style futures and things like that for crypto and options trading. We're the first company to do that. I don't think any other company in the U S has gotten that yet.”
Armstrong: Code shipped per developer at Coinbase is up 2x year-over-year
“The amount of code being shipped per developer is up about two X year over year.”
Zero percent of 40,000 recent App Store games sustained top 25 rankings
“I believe last year there was 40,000, 40,000 games launched in the App Store, and zero percent of them sustained a top 25 position.”
Slotowicz: Private jet de-icing bills can reach $24,000 per flight
“We've seen it like, a 24,000 dollar de-ice bill in Aspen. So deicing is something that charter companies will typically pass along to the broker, which will pass along to you.”
Pereyra: Harvey is moving traffic to open-source models due to closed-model costs
“There's customers like us, where we do need to move some of our traffic to open source models because it's just becoming super expensive to serve like the largest closed frontier model.”
Harvey reached roughly 960 employees, 2,000 customers, and $300M ARR
“We're around 900 folks 950 people, 960, something like that. We're at around 2000 customers somewhere around three hundred million ARR.”
Switching to cloud agents caused Harvey's usage to double quarter-over-quarter
“And then this year, most recently, the main switch we did is just went over to cloud agents. Like we switched our entire infrastructure to that. And once we did that, usage literally just started, like, doubling quarter over quarter.”
Weinberg: Big law promotes associates lockstep yearly regardless of performance
“You get promoted, like, every single year to exactly the same level as everyone else, despite your performance and you don't really get pushed out, right?”
Weinberg: Harvey has an over 70% win rate in Europe
“Yeah, I mean, I would say in Europe, I think our win rate is, like, over 70% so I don't think it's as much dominant there.”
Fishner-Wolfson notes SpaceX's launch business has been profitable for years
“Well, I mean, they were, I mean, they were profitable for a very long time, and the launch business was, I mean, they were doing things that no one in the industry had accomplished, right?”
Fishner-Wolfson says SpaceX equity creates life-changing wealth for shop-floor workers
“They've really shared equity across the entire company, which is incredible. And to your point, they have lots of people on the shop floor who literally make all of the stuff that matters. So the fact that this is life changing for so many people, I really thi…”
Singerman reveals Founders Fund invested over 30% of a fund into Palantir
“You know, we put a lot of money into it. I think we put like 30 something percent of.”
SpaceX's Merlin is the most reliable, highest thrust-to-weight engine ever
“My, probably my proudest development was the Merlin engine, which is currently flying on Falcon nine, the most reliable rocket engine ever developed, and also the highest thrust of weight of any rocket engine ever developed.”
Romo: Helios Reaches GEO in Eight Hours Cheaper Than Falcon Heavy
“Helios gets them to their same, same place they want to go the same day to launch eight hours later. And it's cheaper than a Falcon Heavy, more expensive than Falcon Nine, obviously, because they need to play for, pay for that and the Helios”
Reses: Square nearly delayed its Bitcoin launch over SEC accounting disputes
“And so we almost got held up that first quarterly earnings period because we couldn't get accountants in the SEC to agree that we were accounting it correctly and then actually get it in the numbers in order to launch the product.”
Tandon: Commure adds hours daily back to physicians at HCA
“In, in health systems like HCA, it's a very similar story. We've been able to add a couple hours to every physician's day.”
Tandon: Commure supports 200 million patient encounters annually
“We probably, we support, I want to say, two hundred million patient encounters every year now.”
Tandon: Commure ambient tool saves physicians 75M hours across 50M appointments
“That does about fifty million annualized appointments every year, saving, like, I want to say at least seventy-five million hours a year for physicians, and that's just productivity straight back into the American economy.”
Tandon: RFK Jr. toured Commure's AI healthcare stack at Summa Health
“We had RFK Jr. Visit the hospital last week, and we hosted him there, and it was an amazing visit, showing him the transformation with ambient documentation on ComerStack, with ADOC, which is a, an imaging-based company that's essentially automating a lot of t…”
Tandon: Federal administration is funding DOJ to prosecute Cures Act violations
“They're funding the Department of Justice to come after folks that are engaging in information blocking or violating the Cures Act and as an innovator, that's welcome change.”
Tandon: Commure transitioned Augmedix from labor-based to LLM software margins
“And also transform their margin structure using LLMs. You know, primarily labor-based business that is now primarily software-based using language models.”
Rangwalla: Memory supply agreements feature guaranteed commitments through 2029–2030
“And now, you know, in the case of memory, for example, you're now hearing Supply agreements, like, guaranteed commitments through 29, twenty-thirty.”