The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 478 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 80 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lamm: Earth is forecasted to lose 50% of biodiversity within 25 years
“It's currently forecasted that we're going to lose up to 50% of all biodiversity in the next 25 years.”
Foroughi: AI chatbots will not eliminate ad-driven e-commerce
“We get questions like, well, isn't the chatbot going to tell everyone what to buy and just complete the transaction and no one will ever do e-commerce off of an ad again. And what that leaves a sight of is that people actually like to shop and people want to l…”
Foroughi: Public will not support AI without use cases beyond search
“Until people start understanding what the average person can have as positive use cases that are incremental to search, they're not going to be proponents of AI, and there's no reason to expect them to be.”
Wu: Nearly all software engineers will use coding agents within three years
“The rough answer for, you know, two, three years from now is roughly every software engineer in the world, and probably a lot more than all the Just the software engineers because I think a lot more people will be able to produce code and produce products and …”
Wu: AI will solve all intelligence problems, but not in six months
“I really don't think that there are, like, intelligence problems that AI will not solve in the long term. I just don't think of that as, like, it's gonna be all over in six months.”
Scott Wu: Single-use and self-driving software will exist
“Like single use software is going to exist. Like self-driving software is going to exist, right?”
Tony Kim: Utility-scale, million-qubit quantum computers will arrive around 2030
“It's very interesting when you look at these long-dated technologies. All roads converge to 2030. It's like quantum computing, utility scale, logically error-corrected, million-qubit quantum computer, twenty-thirty.”
Tony Kim: China has 30 to 40 potential robotics IPOs this year
“I'm looking at the current pipeline. I see 30, 40 potential IPOs this year in China.”
Friedberg: Wealth taxes will trigger capital flight and unrest without solving problems
“It'll cause people to flee and run around and get away and it'll cause more discontent, but it doesn't solve the policy problems.”
Friedberg predicts Ro Khanna will be HUD Secretary under President AOC
“I think he'll likely end up being secretary of housing and urban development. If AOC is elected president.”
Younis: AI Industry Is in an Opulent Bubble and a Pullback Is Coming
“The cost structure that we're currently seeing from whether it's from how much we spend on model training and development to employees to where we're at that phase of the bubble where it's like, you know, like the, all the opulence in the companies is what peo…”
Cook: Mobile apps will consolidate to 2-4 agentic AI interfaces
“We're going from a world in which you have 60 to 80 apps to an agentic AI world where you've got a lot fewer than that. Two, three, four apps where everything else plugs in as an API or an MCP.”
Liang: Agentic AI will drive a wave of mid-sized distributed data centers
“And I think you're going to see this new wave of companies that are doing distributed data centers, right? So these data centers are mid-sized, right? They're mid-sized, and it's going to be even more important as you go into this agentic world”
Liang: Frontier AI models are heading toward 10 trillion parameters
“The new models are heading towards 10 trillion. Even the open source models are already one to two trillion parameter models, and so now you're starting to see these models getting very big because people are looking for accuracy, right?”
Liang predicts data centers will support only three to four AI chips
“As much as these data centers and service providers are heterogeneous, right, they're using different chips, NVIDIA and other chips, it's not going to be a hundred different chips. It might be two or three. Maybe three or four, right? That's as heterogeneous a…”
Liang: Relying on commodity AI models will compress enterprise margins within two years
“If you actually transfer all of those You know, services, that differentiation, to all using the same exact model. That's in the community. Where does the differentiation come from? Right? And so what most companies start to realize, if you just fast forward, …”
Venner: A six-person team with AI can match 175 SpaceX engineers
“I don't really think it's going to scale much more than maybe one or two more people, and I think I'll be able to do exactly what I did at SpaceX with only six, because AI,
It drives most of what we're doing, and AI is now starting to enable things we weren't …”
Black: US industrial base cannot meet incoming aerospace and defense demand
“The current U S industrial base cannot keep up with the amount of demand that's going to see.”
Venner: Six AI-assisted engineers can replicate a 175-person SpaceX software team
“I've got a team of six here. I don't really think it's going to scale much more than maybe one or two more people. And I think I'll be able to do exactly what I did at SpaceX with only six because AI drives most of what we're doing and AI is now starting to en…”
Feldman: Ending cancer deaths for next generation achievable in 25 years
“Look, I think that we have a chance for our children or the next generation, not only to not die from cancer, but to not know anybody who died from cancer. I think that is a real achievable goal in 25 years.”
Banister: AI will create solo millionaires running zero-employee agentic companies
“I think we're going to see a lot of, maybe not venture scalable businesses, but a lot of newly minted millionaires that are going to figure out how this all works. And they're going to set up a completely agenticized business where there's no, no real employee…”
Banister: Future wars will be fought exclusively with robotics, not humans
“Wars are going to be fought with robotics in the future. There's not going to be humans on the battlefield. There's going to be robots, and there's going to be technology, and battle bots is going to be a thing.”
Banister: Anduril will consolidate market share and become a top defense prime
“I do think that obviously Enduro is gonna consolidate a lot of it and become one of the top defense primes over time.”
Miller: Monthly AI token spend will go well above $500M
“I'm very bullish that we're going to go well above that.”
Mathew: US Financial Markets Will Absorb Multi-Trillion-Dollar Tech IPOs
“And so I think this is just the power of the financial markets in the United States specifically, I think we can absorb it. I think we will. I think you'll see a number of other countries and investors from all over the world and mom and pop, you know, it's no…”
Randle: Frontier labs will lose premium margins if AI capabilities plateau
“If we do end up, you know, at some point topping out on capabilities sometime in the next few years, and distillation continues I think it's much harder to garner a premium margin if you're a frontier model company, it becomes much harder.”
Armstrong: In 5-10 Years Everyday Financial Services Will Run on Crypto Rails
“I think in five or 10 years, people are going to be using financial services. A lot of it will be running on crypto rails. They won't even really know or care about crypto itself. They just like, oh, this is a cheaper way to send money abroad to my family, or …”
Armstrong: AI Agents Will Use Base Wallets to Form an Agentic Economy
“We're also going to see AI agents have their own financial accounts, and we're powering that with the base, like, MCP API so they can have their own self-custodial wallet now and start to have a true agentic economy, paying for goods and services, hiring other…”
Pincus: Multi-trillion tech companies will reach $10T to $20T valuations
“I think these two to five trillion dollar companies are going to be 10 to 20 trillion dollar companies or more.”
Pereyra: AI Pricing Will Likely Return to Subscription Models From Tokens
“Buying off tokens is insanely complicated. It'll probably at some point go back to something like subscription because it's hard to like forecast these things.”
Pereyra: Token billing will spawn an optimization ecosystem to counter model incentives
“I think you're going to start seeing things like this for token billing, where there's going to become this whole ecosystem of like, how do you optimize around this? Because you kind of have these weird misaligned incentives from the model providers, right? Be…”
Weinberg: Every single company will sell intelligence as its core business
“I think every single company is going to sell intelligence. Like that is going to be the core of the company.”
Singerman argues wealth taxes hurt the middle class more than billionaires
“This is going to impact the middle class way more than it's going to affect mobile billionaires.”
Mueller predicts Deneb will be the highest-performing hydrocarbon engine ever
“This engine will probably be the highest performing hydrocarbon engine ever flown because it's, it has a very high area ratio.”
Mueller predicts global compute infrastructure will eventually move to space
“Compute will need to move to space at some point.”
Ding: Software companies must go headless to compete for agent traffic
“I think you have to, because I think a lot of times not for all software, but for some software, like you're not going to have time to make a decision for what vendors you use.
[1925] Shensi Ding: We notice this with packages a lot, also in cloud code, scarily…”
Feig: AI Startups Raising at 100x–1,000x Multiples Will Face Failure and Layoffs
“We know specifically, like we know the numbers, we know sales figures for some of these companies raising at Hundreds of millions to billions, and again, we're looking at thousand x to, you know, hundred to thousand x multipliers, like, a lot of these companie…”
Tandon: Healthcare LLMs will improve outcomes enough to lower malpractice premiums
“That yes, occasionally you have, like, weird performance, but on the averages, and like in the 99% of cases, it improves outcomes so much that the malpractice implications are actually very net positive, and I think because of that, you will, you should see a …”
Tandon: AI agents will execute end-to-end EMR tasks autonomously this year
“And this year you're going to see agents where you give it a task in an EMR and it just goes and does all the work and dollars show up at the other end of it.”
Rangwalla: Individuals will run hundreds to thousands of AI agents within two years
“If you or me in, in a year or two, we're gonna have a claw that's running hundreds of agents at all time. I'm gonna have a similar impact at work. I'm gonna have hundreds, maybe thousands of agents running at all time.”
Rangwalla: Individual semiconductor footprints will expand 10x due to AI agents
“Your footprint, you're like a semiconductor or technology footprint as an individual is about to expand by like 10 X because you used to have a couple of devices. Maybe you're someone has an iPad too. So you have X a little more, but like three or four devices…”
Rangwalla: Rise of AI agents is driving massive CPU and memory demand
“And so I think that that is just creating a massive need for more CPUs and more memory. And we're seeing that we're actually just at the beginning of that. I think agents is really what is driving that.”
Rangwalla: AI Hardware Ratios May Flip to 4 CPUs per GPU
“Now, the ratio is actually moving from, to one CPU to four GPUs, and so it's improved kind of by two x already, and we think it actually has a chance to flip the opposite direction, which is one GPU to four CPUs, and so, and some people, very aggressive, say t…”
Rangwalla: AI buildout will put skilled trade jobs in pole position
“There's a lot of companies that we look at that are massive shortages the amount of labor that they have, and it's not one type of labor, it's a lot of different types of skilled labor, but which usually means that the salaries for those jobs are gonna go up t…”
Adcock: Figure's data collection will generalize across global environments
“Our hypothesis now is that we will see enormous amount of positive transfer from the data collection efforts we're doing now into pre-training across, like, basically any environment in the world.”
Adcock: AGI might be achieved first in humanoid robotic embodiments
“So in some way I think we'll get to at or even beyond human level intelligence in these systems. It actually might be the case that we get to artificial general intelligence first in these embodiments.”
Adcock: Figure will reach full lights-out manufacturing where robots build robots
“At some point here, it'll just be like it'll just be full lights out manufacturing. We'll have like robots only building robots and sending out to the world. Robots will be getting into boxes themselves. Other robots will be boxing them up and we'll be shippin…”